Market evolution: Cocoa butter (CN 1804) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Cocoa butter (CN 1804) is a key intermediate product in the confectionery, cosmetics, and pharmaceutical industries. The European Union — home to some of the world's largest chocolate manufacturers — is both a major importer of raw cocoa butter from tropical origins and a significant re-exporter of processed cocoa products. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's external trade in CN 1804 underwent a structural transformation: trade values surged dramatically while volumes grew only modestly, pointing to the dominant role of price dynamics. This report examines three major facets of this evolution — the price-driven explosion in trade values, the deepening concentration of EU supply in West Africa, and the EU's rising external vulnerability alongside its expanding re-export role.

1. A Price-Driven Explosion in Trade Values

The most striking feature of EU cocoa-butter trade between 2015 and 2025 is the divergence between volumes and values. While physical quantities grew moderately, trade values multiplied several times over, almost entirely driven by a sharp rise in unit prices.

Import values nearly quadrupled while volumes rose by less than a third

EU imports of cocoa butter rose from €896 million in 2015 to €3,509 million in 2025 — a jump of 291.4%. Over the same period, imported quantities increased only from 181,007 tonnes to 235,875 tonnes (+30.3%). The unit import price climbed from €4,952/t to €14,876/t (+200.4%), meaning that higher prices accounted for the vast majority of the value increase. This price trajectory reflects the global cocoa-price rally of 2023–2025, driven by successive poor harvests in West Africa, speculative activity, and tightening global supply.

Export values followed the same pattern, though volume growth was even flatter

EU exports of cocoa butter went from €633 million to €1,969 million (+211.0%), but exported volumes barely moved — from 100,688 tonnes to just 103,785 tonnes (+3.1%). The export unit price thus surged from €6,287/t to €18,969/t (+201.7%), closely tracking the import price surge. The near-zero volume growth on the export side, contrasting with the 30% volume increase on the import side, suggests that a growing share of imported cocoa butter was absorbed by domestic processing rather than re-exported in the same form.

The trade deficit widened sharply

Because import values grew far more than export values, the EU's trade balance in cocoa butter deteriorated from a deficit of €263 million in 2015 to €1,540 million in 2025 — a widening of 485%. This ballooning deficit underscores both the EU's structural dependence on imported cocoa butter and the amplifying effect of commodity price inflation on trade imbalances.

2. West Africa Tightens Its Hold on EU Supply

The geographical concentration of EU cocoa-butter imports deepened over the period. West African origins — already dominant — gained further market share, while the supplier base became slightly narrower.

Côte d'Ivoire and Cameroon saw the most dramatic growth among suppliers

Among the EU's top import partners, West African origins dominate overwhelmingly:

Cameroon stands out with a remarkable 1,281% increase, rising from a minor supplier to the fourth-largest source of EU cocoa-butter imports. Côte d'Ivoire consolidated its position as the single most important origin, accounting for a dominant share of total import value. The combined West African share (Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, Nigeria) grew substantially, making the EU's supply base more geographically concentrated in a single sub-region.

Import-source concentration increased, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index

The HHI for import concentration by value rose from 1,750 in 2015 to 2,036 in 2025 (+16.3%), confirming a moderate increase in supplier concentration. While not at extreme levels, an HHI above 2,000 indicates a moderately concentrated import structure — consistent with the growing dominance of Côte d'Ivoire. By contrast, the export-side HHI fell from 2,477 to 2,076 (−16.2%), meaning that EU exports of cocoa butter became more diversified across destination markets over the period.

Within the EU, the Netherlands, France, and Germany dominate both imports and exports

Looking at intra-EU reporter specialisation, three member states absorb the lion's share of cocoa-butter imports and generate most exports:

The Netherlands stands out as both the largest importer and exporter, functioning as the EU's cocoa-butter trading hub — consistent with the role of Amsterdam and Rotterdam in global cocoa logistics. France, by contrast, shows a much larger import bill than export revenue, indicating a predominantly domestic-processing orientation. Italy and Spain also exhibited strong import growth (+740% and +631% respectively), reflecting the expansion of chocolate manufacturing capacity in Southern Europe.

Specialisation indices confirm this pattern: the Netherlands has the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA = 0.57), followed by France (RSCA = 0.40), while most other member states show negative values, indicating they are net importers with little or no export specialisation in cocoa butter.

3. Rising Import Dependence and an Expanding Re-Export Footprint

Beyond the price and geographic dynamics, the period saw a fundamental shift in the EU's structural position in the global cocoa-butter market — marked by a sharp rise in import reliance, trade openness, and export orientation.

Net import reliance tripled, reaching 43% by 2025

The EU's net import reliance — the share of apparent consumption met by net imports — rose from 13.2% in 2015 to 42.9% in 2025. This represents a 225% increase and reflects the fact that import volumes grew faster than domestic production while export volumes stagnated. EU production of cocoa butter rose from 315,000 tonnes to 450,000 tonnes (+42.9%) over the same period, but this was insufficient to keep pace with growing demand from the confectionery sector and the rising import surplus.

Trade intensity and export propensity both more than doubled

The trade intensity of the EU cocoa-butter sector (total external trade as a share of production value) surged from 43.0% to 101.7%, indicating that by 2025 the sector's external trade exceeded the value of its entire domestic production. More strikingly, export propensity — exports as a share of production — jumped from 21.9% to 104.6%. An export propensity above 100% indicates that the EU exported more cocoa butter than it produced domestically, implying that inventories, re-processing of imports, or intra-EU redistribution played a role in sustaining the outward flow.

This suggests the EU is increasingly acting as a processing and trading intermediary — importing raw cocoa butter from West Africa, refining and re-exporting it to neighbouring markets.

Key export destinations diversified, but the UK and Switzerland remain dominant

The EU's main export partners in 2025 were:

The UK and Switzerland — both major chocolate-producing nations outside the EU — accounted for the largest shares of EU cocoa-butter exports. Türkiye and Ukraine saw particularly rapid growth, likely reflecting the expansion of confectionery industries in those markets. The US also emerged as a fast-growing destination (+477%). Meanwhile, volatility analysis shows that the most stable export relationships were with Switzerland (coefficient of variation = 0.05) and the UK (CV = 0.12), while flows to Serbia, the UAE, and the US were considerably more volatile.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's cocoa-butter market was reshaped by three converging forces. First, an extraordinary price surge — rooted in global supply tightness and amplified by speculative dynamics — caused trade values to nearly quadruple despite only modest volume growth, inflating the EU's trade deficit to €1.5 billion. Second, the EU's import base became more concentrated in West Africa, with Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Cameroon, and Nigeria collectively tightening their grip on supply, raising concerns about geographic vulnerability. Third, the EU's net import reliance rose to 43%, while export propensity exceeded 100%, positioning the bloc as an increasingly important processing and re-export hub for cocoa butter transiting from tropical origins to neighbouring consumer markets.

These dynamics carry important policy implications. The heavy dependence on a small number of West African origins exposes EU processors to supply-chain risks from weather events, political instability, or export policies in producing countries. The price-driven widening of the trade deficit also highlights the EU's limited leverage over input costs in a market where it is structurally a price-taker. Going forward, diversification of supply sources, investment in domestic and near-shore production capacity, and strategic stockholding may all merit consideration as the global cocoa market enters a period of heightened uncertainty.