Market evolution: Cocoa waste (CN 1802) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in cocoa shells, husks, skins, and other cocoa waste (Combined Nomenclature code 1802) over the 2015-2025 period. The data reveals a market characterized by significant structural shifts. While the total value of imports increased substantially, driven by sharply higher prices, the physical volumes traded for both imports and exports declined. The EU's trade deficit in this product widened considerably. Geographically, the sourcing of imports diversified away from its initial concentration, while export patterns underwent a dramatic reorientation, particularly following the geopolitical shift in 2022.

A Decade of Price-Driven Value Growth and Volume Contraction

The overarching trend for EU trade in CN 1802 is a stark divergence between monetary value and physical quantity. The market's financial footprint expanded, but this was almost entirely a consequence of rising unit prices rather than increased physical trade flows.

Import value surged on the back of a tripling in unit prices

The total value of EU imports grew by 79.0% from 2015 to 2025, reaching €8.77 million. This growth occurred despite a 39.0% fall in imported volume, which dropped from 6,125 tonnes to 3,734 tonnes. The driving force was a dramatic increase in the average import price, which rose from €800 per tonne in 2015 to €2,348 per tonne in 2025—a 193.6% increase. This indicates intense inflationary pressure within the import supply chain or a shift towards higher-value waste streams. The General Overview provides a comprehensive view of these trends.

Export values held steady despite collapsing volumes, signaling a niche market

EU export performance showed a more modest increase in value (+1.9% to €4.12 million) but an even steeper decline in volume (-45.0% to 5,930 tonnes). The export price per tonne nearly doubled, rising from €375 to €695 (+85.3%). This suggests that the EU increasingly exports smaller quantities of cocoa waste at higher prices, potentially reflecting a focus on specialized or higher-quality waste products for specific end-uses.

The trade deficit expanded primarily due to import price inflation

The EU ran a trade deficit in cocoa waste throughout the period. This deficit widened from €854,771 in 2015 to €4,647,714 in 2025, an increase of 443.7%. This expansion is a direct result of import values growing much faster than export values, underscoring the EU's role as a net importer where cost pressures have intensified.

A Reconfiguration of Geographic Flows and Supply Chains

The period witnessed a fundamental reshaping of the EU's trade partnerships for CN 1802, both in terms of where it sources its imports and where it sends its exports.

Import sourcing diversified away from a historical West African focus

In 2015, EU imports were heavily concentrated in Ghana, which supplied €3.70 million (75.4% of total import value). By 2025, Ghana remained the top partner but its share fell to 26.3% (€2.31 million). More strikingly, Cameroon emerged from a negligible position (€101 in 2015) to become the second-largest supplier (€2.42 million in 2025). This diversification is confirmed by the sharp decline in the import concentration index (HHI), which fell by 68.1% from 5,793 to 1,849, indicating a much less concentrated import base.

Export destinations underwent a dramatic shift eastward post-2022

The most profound change occurred in export flows. In 2015, the United Kingdom was the largest export destination (€485,506), but its share collapsed to zero by 2025 (€175). Concurrently, exports to Ukraine surged from €140,310 to €1.22 million, making it the primary destination by 2025. This pivot likely reflects the reorientation of trade following the UK's departure from the EU single market and the disruption of traditional routes due to the war in Ukraine. Data on top export partners clearly illustrates this transition.

Intra-EU trade hubs solidified their roles as major re-exporters or processors

Analysis of EU Member State reporting shows a consolidation of activity. For imports, Lithuania grew from a minor role to become the largest reporting importer by value (€4.89 million in 2025). For exports, Poland saw its declared export value explode from €117,662 to €2.04 million, becoming the EU's largest exporter. This points to the rise of these Member States as key logistical or processing nodes within the EU's cocoa waste value chain.

Price Volatility, Supply Shocks, and Market Fragmentation

The cocoa waste market experienced notable periods of instability, characterized by extreme price volatility in specific bilateral relationships and evidence of potential supply disruptions.

Specific trade corridors exhibited extreme price volatility

The data on volatility highlights several highly volatile partnerships. For instance, imports from Guinea had a coefficient of variation (CV) of 1.67, and exports to Chile had a CV of 2.16, indicating erratic year-to-year changes in value. This suggests that these were not stable, long-term supply relationships but likely opportunistic or niche trades.

The data reveals several distinct price shock events

The analysis of shocks identifies specific episodes of abnormal price movement. A notable import price shock occurred with Cameroon in 2020, where prices shifted by 2,795.8%. A significant export price shock occurred with the United Kingdom in 2023, with prices surging by 1,271.2%. These events may be linked to specific logistical bottlenecks, quality fluctuations, or one-off contractual arrangements.

The structural analysis reveals a fragmented and non-specialized EU market

From a structural perspective, the EU market for CN 1802 is not dominated by a few highly specialized producers. According to the revealed comparative advantage data for 2025, only Estonia shows a strong positive RCA index (7.96), indicating specialization. Most large economies like Germany (RCA 1.37) and the Netherlands (RCA 1.56) show only marginal specialization, while major economies like Italy (RCA 0.0013) show a clear lack of competitive advantage in this niche product. This aligns with cocoa waste being a by-product whose trade is more influenced by processing logistics and global cocoa market dynamics than by inherent national competitive advantages.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in cocoa waste (CN 1802) over the past decade has been transformed by two dominant forces: pervasive price inflation and a complete reconfiguration of geographic partnerships. The market's value grew not because the EU traded more physical waste, but because it paid significantly more for it, particularly on the import side. This price pressure, combined with a strategic pivot away from the UK and towards Ukraine and diversified African suppliers, has reshaped the supply chain. While the market experienced episodes of high volatility and specific price shocks, its underlying structure remains relatively fragmented, with no single Member State or partner dominating long-term specialization. The period highlights the vulnerability of this commodity chain to macroeconomic inflation and geopolitical trade policy shifts.