Market evolution: Cocoa paste (CN 1803) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in cocoa paste (customs code CN 1803, covering both the non-defatted subheading 180310 and the wholly or partly defatted subheading 180320) over the period 2015–2025. Cocoa paste is a critical intermediate product in the European confectionery and chocolate industry, derived from roasted and ground cocoa beans. The EU is a major processor of cocoa but relies heavily on imports of raw and semi-processed cocoa from West Africa. Over the decade under review, the market has been shaped by three dominant forces: a dramatic surge in cocoa prices in the final years of the period, a significant deepening of the EU's import dependence, and the consolidation of the Netherlands as the bloc's central cocoa-processing hub.

1. An unprecedented price shock reshapes the market's value dynamics

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is the extraordinary increase in the unit values of cocoa paste traded by the EU. While import volumes grew only modestly, import values nearly quadrupled — a divergence almost entirely explained by a historic run-up in global cocoa prices.

1.1 Import values surge far beyond volume growth

EU imports of cocoa paste rose from €889 million in 2015 to €3,042 million in 2025, an increase of 242.2%. Over the same period, import quantities grew by only 16.0%, from 321,077 tonnes to 372,604 tonnes. The implication is clear: the overwhelming driver of the value increase was price, not volume. The average import unit price climbed from €2,768 per tonne in 2015 to €8,163 per tonne in 2025 — a rise of 194.9%.

Source: General Overview — trade

1.2 Export prices follow a parallel trajectory

EU exports of cocoa paste display a remarkably similar pattern. Export values climbed from €304 million to €1,196 million (+294.1%), while export volumes grew from 82,620 tonnes to 108,891 tonnes (+31.8%). The average export unit price rose from €3,674 per tonne to €10,986 per tonne (+199.0%). Notably, the export unit price consistently exceeds the import unit price (€10,986 vs. €8,163 in 2025), reflecting the higher value-added content of the cocoa paste that the EU processes and re-exports to third-country markets.

1.3 A global cocoa supply crisis underpins the price spike

The price trajectory for both imports and exports shows a relatively stable period from 2015 through approximately 2021, followed by a steep acceleration in 2022–2025. This is consistent with the well-documented global cocoa supply crisis driven by adverse weather conditions and crop disease in West Africa (which accounts for roughly two-thirds of world cocoa production), compounded by structural underinvestment in cocoa farming. The minimum unit prices recorded during the period — €2,092/t for imports and €2,777/t for exports — occurred during the earlier years of the sample, confirming that the price increase was concentrated in the latter part of the decade.

2. The EU's import dependence on West Africa deepens while supply diversification remains limited

Despite the EU's ambition to diversify its raw-material supply chains, the data shows that the bloc has become more reliant on cocoa paste imports over the decade, with West African origins — particularly Côte d'Ivoire — consolidating their dominance.

2.1 Net import reliance nearly doubles

The EU's net import reliance on cocoa paste rose from 30.2% in 2015 to 55.8% in 2025 (an increase of 84.6%), peaking at 57.9% during an intermediate year. This means that more than half of the cocoa paste consumed in the EU now originates from outside the bloc. While the EU did expand its own production volumes (from 248,279 tonnes to 354,345 tonnes, +42.7% in quantity and +61.5% in value), domestic output growth has not kept pace with consumption.

Source: Autonomy & Vulnerability

2.2 West Africa dominates the EU's import basket

The top importing partners are overwhelmingly concentrated in West Africa. Côte d'Ivoire alone accounted for €1,649 million of EU cocoa paste imports in 2025 (up from €520 million in 2015, +217.2%), making it by far the single largest supplier. Ghana added €525 million (+162.6%), while Cameroon's share surged from €22 million to €282 million (+1,163.2%). Nigeria, though smaller, also displayed explosive growth (€7 million → €118 million, +1,607.6%).

Source: Top partners by value — imports

2.3 Import concentration remains high despite modest diversification

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value declined from 3,999 in 2015 to 3,401 in 2025 (−14.9%), indicating a slight broadening of the supplier base. However, an HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a highly concentrated market. The persistence of West African origins at the top of the import table suggests that genuine diversification remains limited. The modest reduction in concentration is partly attributable to the rapid growth of non-traditional suppliers such as Cameroon and Nigeria, but the structural dependence on the Côte d'Ivoire–Ghana axis endures.

3. The Netherlands anchors EU processing and re-export, while trade intensity deepens across the bloc

The EU's role as both a major consumer and a significant re-exporter of cocoa paste is underpinned by a highly specialised processing industry concentrated in a handful of member states, with the Netherlands serving as the central hub.

3.1 The Netherlands dominates intra-EU cocoa processing

The top EU importers and exporters reveal a clear pattern: the Netherlands is the EU's primary gateway for cocoa paste. Dutch imports rose from €304 million to €1,075 million (+253.5%), while Dutch exports surged from €151 million to €728 million (+382.6%). The Netherlands' revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of 3.23 and positive RSCA of 0.53 in 2025 confirm a strong specialisation in this product. This reflects the presence of major cocoa-processing facilities in the port of Amsterdam and surrounding areas.

Source: Top reporters by value

3.2 Export propensity rises sharply, reflecting deepening integration in global value chains

The EU's export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — jumped from 19.6% in 2015 to 85.2% in 2025 (+334.4%). Over the same period, trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) rose from 50.7% to 95.3%. These figures indicate that the EU's cocoa-paste sector has become substantially more export-oriented and more deeply integrated into international trade flows. In practical terms, a growing share of the cocoa paste imported into the EU is processed and re-exported to third-country markets — particularly to neighbouring and near-shore destinations such as Türkiye, Russia, Ukraine, the United Kingdom, and Switzerland.

3.3 The EU trade deficit in cocoa paste widens significantly

Despite the strong export growth, the EU's trade balance in cocoa paste deteriorated from a deficit of €585 million in 2015 to a deficit of €1,845 million in 2025 (−215.3%). This widening reflects the fact that import values — driven by the global price surge — grew faster than export values. The deficit underscores the structural vulnerability of the EU's confectionery supply chain: the bloc processes cocoa paste into higher-value products, but remains a price-taker in the upstream segment of the value chain.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU cocoa paste market has undergone a fundamental transformation driven by the historic global cocoa price surge. Import and export unit values roughly tripled, while volumes grew far more modestly. The EU's net import reliance has deepened to over 55%, and the concentration of supply in West Africa — particularly Côte d'Ivoire — remains pronounced despite some diversification. Within the EU, the Netherlands has consolidated its position as the dominant processing and re-export hub. The trade deficit has widened substantially, highlighting the EU's exposure to upstream supply shocks. Looking ahead, the cocoa paste market faces considerable uncertainty: if high prices persist, they may incentivise investment in cocoa farming and processing capacity in producing countries, but they also risk squeezing margins for EU processors and raising costs for downstream consumers.