Market evolution: Cocoa paste (CN 180310) — 2015–2025
Introduction
Cocoa paste (CN 180310), also known as cocoa liquor or mass, is the intermediate product obtained by grinding roasted cocoa beans. It serves as the essential input for chocolate manufacturing and other cocoa preparations. As the European Union is the world's largest processor of cocoa, understanding the trade dynamics of this product is critical to assessing the health and resilience of the European chocolate value chain.
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in cocoa paste (excluding defatted) over the period 2015–2025, drawing on trade data for CN 180310. The analysis covers import and export flows, trade partners, market structure, supply vulnerability, and price volatility. The period under review is marked by a dramatic transformation: while physical volumes grew only moderately, the value of trade surged manifold — driven primarily by an unprecedented rise in cocoa prices — while the EU's dependence on external suppliers deepened significantly.
I. A Market Defined by Surging Prices Rather Than Volume Growth
The most striking feature of EU cocoa paste trade over the 2015–2025 decade is the divergence between quantity and value trajectories. While the EU imported and exported only marginally more tonnes of cocoa paste at the end of the period than at the beginning, the monetary value of those flows exploded.
Imports grew in value far more than in volume
EU imports of cocoa paste rose from 210,657 tonnes in 2015 to 225,377 tonnes in 2025, an increase of just 7.0%. Yet the import bill surged from €725.8 million to €2,221.8 million — a rise of 206.1%. This divergence is entirely explained by unit prices, which climbed from €3,445 per tonne to €9,858 per tonne (+186.1%) over the same period. The minimum import price was recorded at €2,643/t, while the peak was reached in 2025 at €9,858/t.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import quantity (t) | 210,657 | 225,377 | +7.0% |
| Import value (€M) | 725.8 | 2,221.8 | +206.1% |
| Import price (€/t) | 3,445 | 9,858 | +186.1% |
Exports followed the same pattern, with even stronger value growth
EU exports of cocoa paste increased from 72,477 tonnes to 89,558 tonnes (+23.6%), while their value rose from €283.6 million to €1,099.6 million (+287.8%). Export unit prices climbed from €3,913/t to €12,278/t (+213.8%). Notably, EU export prices consistently exceeded import prices by a significant margin — reaching €12,278/t vs. €9,858/t in 2025 — suggesting that the EU tends to export higher-quality or more processed cocoa paste, or that export destinations are willing to pay a premium.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export quantity (t) | 72,477 | 89,558 | +23.6% |
| Export value (€M) | 283.6 | 1,099.6 | +287.8% |
| Export price (€/t) | 3,913 | 12,278 | +213.8% |
The trade deficit widened substantially in nominal terms
The EU has been a structural net importer of cocoa paste throughout the period. The trade deficit grew from -€442.2 million in 2015 to -€1,122.2 million in 2025 (-153.8%), reaching its widest point in the final year. This widening was driven almost entirely by price effects: since imports are roughly 2.5 times larger than exports by volume, the price increases amplified the import bill more than export revenues. In volume terms, the net import gap (approximately 135,000 tonnes in 2025) remained relatively stable, confirming that the structural deficit is a function of scale rather than a new phenomenon.
II. A Shifting and Diversifying Supply Landscape
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's cocoa paste supply base underwent notable structural change. While West Africa remained the dominant source region, the list of significant suppliers broadened, and the geographic concentration of imports declined.
West African origins consolidated their dominance, but new suppliers emerged
Côte d'Ivoire remained the EU's leading cocoa paste supplier throughout the period, with imports rising from €435.7 million to €1,131.7 million (+159.7%). Ghana held second position, growing from €183.8 million to €438.7 million (+138.7%). Together, these two countries accounted for the bulk of EU imports.
However, several new or previously marginal suppliers experienced explosive growth:
| Supplier | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Côte d'Ivoire | 435.7 | 1,131.7 | +159.7% |
| Ghana | 183.8 | 438.7 | +138.7% |
| Switzerland | 57.4 | 169.7 | +195.7% |
| Cameroon | 15.3 | 208.3 | +1,263.4% |
| United Kingdom | 7.6 | 155.5 | +1,938.7% |
| Nigeria | 0.4 | 68.7 | +16,649.1% |
Cameroon grew from a minor supplier to a major one (+1,263.4%), as did Nigeria (+16,649.1%), reflecting the broader trend of cocoa processing capacity expanding across West Africa. The United Kingdom's rise as a supplier (+1,938.7%) likely reflects re-routing of trade flows following Brexit, with UK-based processors re-exporting to the EU. Switzerland, a traditional cocoa processing hub, also maintained a significant and growing presence.
Import concentration declined, signalling diversification
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value fell from 4,316 in 2015 to 3,190 in 2025, a decline of 26.1%. A declining HHI indicates that import sources became more evenly distributed over time. While the market remains moderately concentrated — Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana together still dominate — the emergence of Cameroon, Nigeria, and the UK as significant suppliers reduced the EU's dependence on any single origin.
By contrast, export concentration increased modestly (HHI rising from 869 to 1,185, +36.4%), reflecting a growing share of exports directed toward key destination markets.
The EU's export market diversified toward Eastern Europe and the UK
On the export side, the EU's main destinations for cocoa paste evolved over the period:
| Destination | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 51.1 | 133.7 | +161.5% |
| Russian Federation | 26.8 | 282.7 | +954.8% |
| Ukraine | 15.1 | 113.3 | +652.5% |
| United Kingdom | 40.8 | 111.9 | +174.4% |
| Switzerland | 21.4 | 113.2 | +428.6% |
| China | 17.5 | 20.9 | +19.9% |
| Norway | 12.9 | 36.9 | +186.8% |
The Russian Federation became the EU's single largest export destination by 2025 (€282.7 million), a tenfold increase from 2015 — a striking development given the geopolitical context and suggesting either that cocoa paste was not subject to sanctions or that alternative trade routes were established. Ukraine also grew rapidly (+652.5%), likely reflecting the deepening of EU-Ukraine trade relations. Switzerland's role as both a supplier and a destination underscores its position as a key transit and processing node in the European cocoa chain.
III. The Netherlands as Europe's Cocoa Processing Hub, and Growing Strategic Vulnerability
The market structure data reveals a highly concentrated industrial landscape within the EU, with the Netherlands playing an outsized role. At the same time, indicators of trade openness and import dependency point to a growing strategic vulnerability for the European cocoa sector.
The Netherlands dominates both imports and exports
In 2025, the Netherlands accounted for €796.8 million in cocoa paste imports (+173.8% vs. 2015) and €662.5 million in exports (+364.0% vs. 2015), making it by far the largest EU member state in both flows. The Netherlands' revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.53 in 2025 is the highest among all EU members, confirming its specialisation in cocoa processing. This is consistent with the country's role as home to the port of Amsterdam — the world's largest cocoa bean import hub — and a dense cluster of grinding and processing facilities.
| Reporter | Imports 2025 (€M) | Exports 2025 (€M) | RSCA (2025) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 796.8 | 662.5 | 0.53 |
| France | 459.4 | 87.4 | 0.23 |
| Germany | 238.7 | 112.9 | 0.06 |
| Poland | 204.1 | — | — |
| Italy | 159.5 | — | — |
| Spain | 166.4 | 41.3 | — |
| Belgium | 79.3 | 61.5 | — |
France and Germany followed as the second and third largest importers, but with much lower export ratios and specialisation indices. Notably, several member states — including Romania, Latvia, Ireland, and Denmark — had an RSCA of -1.0, indicating no export specialisation whatsoever and a purely import-dependent profile.
EU domestic production grew but failed to keep pace with demand
EU production of cocoa paste increased from 248.3 million kg (2015) to 354.3 million kg (2025), a rise of 42.7% by volume. Production value grew from €592.4 million to €956.7 million (+61.5%). While this growth is notable, it was insufficient to offset the rising demand implied by the growing import bill and trade intensity. The gap between domestic production and consumption widened, reinforcing the EU's structural dependence on external suppliers.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production volume (M kg) | 248.3 | 354.3 | +42.7% |
| Production value (€M) | 592.4 | 956.7 | +61.5% |
Net import reliance and trade intensity surged, highlighting strategic exposure
Three vulnerability indicators all worsened over the period:
- Net import reliance rose from 30.2% to 55.8% (+84.6%), meaning that more than half of the EU's cocoa paste consumption was sourced from outside the bloc by 2025.
- Trade intensity (the share of trade relative to production) surged from 50.7% to 95.3% (+88.0%), indicating that the EU's cocoa paste market became almost entirely trade-driven.
- Export propensity (exports as a share of production) jumped from 19.6% to 85.2% (+334.4%), suggesting that a large and growing share of EU-produced cocoa paste is destined for re-export — a hallmark of the Netherlands' role as a processing and redistribution hub.
Import reliance · Trade intensity · Export propensity
Price shocks and supply volatility underscore the risks
The volatility analysis confirms that several EU import partners exhibited high coefficient of variation (CV) values, indicating unstable supply patterns. Indonesia (CV 2.03) and the United States (CV 2.12) showed the highest volatility among import sources, while among exporters, the Russian Federation (CV 0.44) and Belarus (CV 0.68) displayed notable instability.
Several isolated shock events were also detected, including an extreme price shock from Thailand in 2023 (abnormality score 157.5, price shift +112.7%) and export price shocks from Angola (2021) and Georgia (2019). While these events affected relatively small trade shares, they illustrate the vulnerability of the cocoa paste market to sudden price dislocations.
Volatility indicators · Supply shocks
Conclusion
The EU cocoa paste market over 2015–2025 was characterised by three defining dynamics: a massive price-driven surge in trade values with only modest volume growth; a diversification of supply sources alongside deepening import dependency; and the consolidation of the Netherlands as the bloc's central cocoa processing hub.
The most consequential development is the near-tripling of unit prices — from approximately €3,500/t to €10,000–12,000/t — which has transformed the economics of the European chocolate industry. While import volumes grew by just 7%, the import bill nearly tripled, squeezing margins for processors and confectioners downstream.
At the same time, the EU's net import reliance rose to 55.8%, and trade intensity reached 95.3%, underscoring the bloc's structural exposure to global cocoa market dynamics. Although import concentration declined — a positive sign for supply resilience — the overwhelming dependence on West African origins (Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana) remains a systemic risk, particularly in the context of climate change, supply chain disruptions, and the cocoa price surge of 2023–2025.
Looking ahead, policymakers and industry stakeholders will need to grapple with the dual challenge of ensuring affordable access to cocoa paste inputs while reducing the EU's strategic vulnerability in a market that has become almost entirely trade-dependent.