Market evolution: Chocolate and cocoa preparations (CN 1806) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of European Union trade in Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa (Combined Nomenclature code 1806) over the period 2015–2025, with data covering all extra-EU trade flows. CN 1806 is a broad heading that encompasses a range of sub-products, from sweetened cocoa powder (180610) and bulk chocolate preparations (180620) to filled and unfilled chocolate bars (180631/180632) and assorted small-pack chocolate confections (180690).

The decade under review was shaped by two broad macro-forces: (i) a long-running structural expansion of the EU's chocolate export base, and (ii) an extraordinary surge in cocoa commodity prices in 2023–2025 that drove up the unit values of both imports and exports. As we will show, the EU consolidated its position as a dominant net exporter, with its trade surplus nearly doubling in value terms, even as volumes grew more modestly. Meanwhile, the geography of trade diversified meaningfully on the import side, and the product mix shifted toward higher-value and bulk segments.

1. Price-led expansion: value growth far outpaces physical volumes

The EU trade surplus nearly doubled, driven overwhelmingly by unit-value increases

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade surplus in CN 1806 grew from €4.12 billion to €7.87 billion, an increase of 91.1%. However, this expansion was almost entirely a price story: export quantities rose only 16.9% (from 1.04 million tonnes to 1.22 million tonnes), while export values surged 95.1% (from €5.38 billion to €10.50 billion). The implied average export price rose from €5,173/t to €8,635/t, a 66.9% increase.

Unit prices accelerated sharply from 2022 onwards, mirroring the global cocoa price spike

Across nearly all product sub-categories, unit values were broadly flat or gently declining in the 2015–2019 period, before staging a pronounced increase from 2022. For example, the average export price of unfilled chocolate bars (180632) went from €5,481/t in 2015 to €5,218/t in 2021, before surging to €9,708/t by 2025. Similarly, bulk chocolate preparations (180620) exported at €3,417/t in 2015, barely €3,207/t in 2020, but then leapt to €7,858/t in 2025 — more than doubling in four years.

This pattern is consistent with the well-documented global cocoa bean price surge of 2023–2024, driven by poor harvests in West Africa, which transmitted directly into higher input costs for cocoa butter, cocoa mass, and finished chocolate products.

The EU's net export reliance deepened substantially

The net import reliance (a measure of how dependent the EU is on external supply, with negative values indicating a net-export position) moved from −7.9% in 2015 to −32.0% in 2025, meaning the EU became a progressively more aggressive net exporter. Over the same period, export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — rose from 10.6% to 31.7%, indicating that the EU chocolate industry has become significantly more outward-oriented.

2. Diversifying partners and shifting geographic balances

Import concentration fell sharply as new suppliers gained ground

One of the most striking structural changes is the sharp decline in import-side concentration. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import values fell from 3,150 in 2015 to 1,952 in 2025, a 38% decline. This is a very substantial de-concentration: in 2015, the EU's chocolate imports were dominated by a small number of partners (notably the United Kingdom and Switzerland), but by 2025, supply sources had broadened considerably.

The most dramatic growth came from Serbia (+2,555%), Ukraine (+816%), and Türkiye (+612%). While some of this reflects value inflation rather than pure volume growth, it also signals genuine diversification: these countries have developed chocolate processing capacity that is increasingly oriented toward the EU market. Côte d'Ivoire (+319%), the world's largest cocoa producer, also emerged as a major supplier of processed cocoa preparations, reflecting the broader trend of "cocoa processing at origin."

The United Kingdom remained the EU's dominant trade partner in both directions

Despite Brexit, the United Kingdom retained its position as the EU's single largest export market (€3.27 billion in 2025, +80.6% since 2015) and largest import supplier (€822 million). This reflects the deeply integrated supply chains between the EU and UK confectionery industries — a relationship that has proven resilient even in the post-Brexit regulatory environment.

Export-side diversification was more modest, but the US market gained particular prominence

On the export side, the HHI edged down only 8.5% (from 1,354 to 1,239), indicating that the EU's export base was already reasonably diversified and remained so. The standout growth market was the United States, where EU chocolate exports grew from €415 million to €1.19 billion (+186.6%), making it the second-largest non-EU destination after the UK. Canada (+154.9%) and Norway (+114.6%) also saw strong growth.

Germany and Belgium consolidated their positions as the EU's chocolate export engines

Among EU Member States, the two largest exporters — Germany and Belgium — together accounted for a growing share of EU export value:

Belgium's particularly strong growth is consistent with its role as a hub for cocoa processing and high-value chocolate manufacturing (Antwerp being a major cocoa butter and chocolate couverture centre). On the import side, France saw the most dramatic increase (+245.6%, from €185 million to €640 million), and Belgium similarly surged (+303.3%, from €54 million to €218 million), suggesting that these countries increasingly serve as reprocessing and re-export hubs.

Specialisation analysis for 2025 confirms that Belgium (RSCA 0.36) and Poland (RSCA 0.27) have strong revealed comparative advantages in chocolate exports, alongside smaller economies such as Croatia (RSCA 0.47) and Bulgaria (RSCA 0.37).

3. Product composition shifts: bulk preparations and filled chocolates lead the charge

Bulk chocolate preparations (180620) showed the fastest import growth by far

Within the product breakdown, the most striking shift on the import side was the explosive growth of sub-heading 180620 — bulk chocolate preparations in blocks, slabs or bars over 2 kg, or in liquid/paste/powder/granular form in containers over 2 kg:

The 334% increase in bulk chocolate imports is particularly noteworthy. This likely reflects growing intra-industry trade: EU manufacturers increasingly source semi-finished cocoa and chocolate preparations from abroad (including from new processing hubs in West Africa and Turkey) for use as industrial inputs in confectionery, bakery, and ice cream production. Sweetened cocoa powder (180610), by contrast, saw a slight decline — a category that has been losing ground to more versatile bulk preparations.

On the export side, filled bars and bulk preparations also dominated value growth

EU exports similarly shifted toward higher-growth sub-categories:

Bulk preparations (180620) nearly tripled in export value (+194.3%), confirming that the EU has become a major exporter of industrial chocolate inputs — not just finished consumer products. Filled bars (180631) also grew strongly (+126.9% in value), with quantities rising from 199,000 t to 263,000 t, suggesting robust demand for premium filled chocolate products in key export markets.

Volume growth was modest for most segments, confirming the pervasive role of price effects

Across the board, quantity growth lagged far behind value growth. For example, exports of small-pack confections (180690) rose only from 506,000 t to 524,000 t (+3.5% in volume) but by 56.9% in value. Similarly, bulk preparation exports (180620) grew from 177,000 t to 226,000 t in volume (+28.0%) versus +194.3% in value. This ratio underscores the extent to which the global cocoa price surge of 2023–2024 inflated the monetary value of trade without a commensurate increase in physical quantities flowing across borders.

EU chocolate production expanded steadily, supporting the export surge

EU production data shows that domestic output grew from 4.23 billion kg to 6.07 billion kg in quantity (+43.4%) and from €16.1 billion to €28.8 billion in value (+78.5%). The fact that production growth (43.4%) exceeded export volume growth (16.9%) suggests that a growing share of output was absorbed by the domestic market, even as the export propensity of the industry rose — implying that total EU chocolate consumption also grew meaningfully over the decade.

Conclusion

The EU chocolate trade landscape evolved substantially between 2015 and 2025. The headline story is one of price-driven value expansion: the EU's trade surplus in CN 1806 nearly doubled to €7.87 billion, but this was overwhelmingly a consequence of rising unit values — themselves a reflection of the global cocoa price surge of 2023–2024 — rather than a proportional increase in physical trade volumes.

Structurally, the period saw meaningful geographic diversification on the import side, with countries such as Serbia, Ukraine, Türkiye, and Côte d'Ivoire emerging as significant suppliers of chocolate preparations to the EU, and the import HHI falling by 38%. On the product front, bulk chocolate preparations (180620) became the fastest-growing category in both imports and exports, reflecting the EU's deepening integration into global cocoa processing value chains — as both a buyer and a seller of industrial chocolate inputs.

Looking ahead, the sustainability of these trends will depend heavily on the trajectory of global cocoa prices, the development of processing capacity in origin countries, and the continued competitiveness of the EU's major chocolate-producing Member States — above all Germany, Belgium, Italy, and Poland — in an increasingly globalised market.