Market evolution: Chocolate bars (CN 180632) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in chocolate bars and similar cocoa preparations classified under Combined Nomenclature code 180632 (covering blocks, slabs or bars of ≤ 2 kg, excluding filled products) over the period 2015–2025. The EU is the world's largest exporter of finished chocolate products, and CN 180632 is one of the highest-value categories within the cocoa preparations segment. The data reveal a market that has been fundamentally reshaped by two overlapping forces: a structural shift toward greater trade openness, and a dramatic post-2021 inflation in unit prices driven by global cocoa supply constraints. While trade values have surged, the underlying volume trends tell a more nuanced story of peaks, plateaus, and recent contractions.

Full product overview on the Trade Dashboard

1. Prices Rise Faster Than Volumes: A Value-Led Trade Expansion

Export values more than doubled while volumes grew by only a third

The headline story of the 2015–2025 period is the growing divergence between the value and volume of EU chocolate bar exports. Total export value rose from €826 million in 2015 to €1.92 billion in 2025 — a gain of 132%. Over the same span, export volumes increased from approximately 150,772 tonnes to 197,675 tonnes, a far more modest rise of 31%. The gap between the two trajectories was filled almost entirely by rising unit prices, which climbed from €5,481 per tonne to €9,708 per tonne (+77%).

Trade overview data

Import growth was even more price-dominated as volumes barely moved

On the import side, the value effect was even more pronounced. EU imports of chocolate bars rose from €343 million to €658 million (+92%), while import volumes crept up from 58,904 tonnes to just 60,843 tonnes (+3.3%). Unit import prices therefore nearly doubled, from €5,822 per tonne to €10,819 per tonne (+86%). Import volumes had in fact peaked at 77,476 tonnes in 2019, meaning that by 2025, volumes were substantially below their pre-pandemic high.

The 2022–2025 price surge aligns with global cocoa supply constraints

Export unit prices were remarkably stable between 2015 and 2020, hovering in a narrow band around €5,000–5,500 per tonne. They began to accelerate in 2022 (€5,852/t) and then surged in each subsequent year: €6,537/t in 2023, €7,554/t in 2024, and €9,708/t in 2025. Import prices followed a similar trajectory, with the sharpest acceleration occurring between 2022 and 2025 (from roughly €6,243/t to €10,819/t). This pattern is consistent with the well-documented global cocoa bean supply crisis of 2023–2025, which saw futures prices reach historic highs due to adverse weather and disease affecting harvests in West Africa, the world's primary cocoa-producing region. The EU, as a major chocolate manufacturer heavily reliant on imported raw cocoa, saw these input cost increases transmitted rapidly through both its import and export unit values.

2. Evolving Trade Geography: Diversification Amid Shifting Alliances

The United Kingdom and Switzerland anchor trade but their share erodes

Switzerland remained the EU's single largest import source throughout the decade, with import values rising from €249 million to €397 million (+59%). The United Kingdom held second position, growing from €78 million to €125 million (+60%). On the export side, the UK was by far the most important destination, absorbing €339 million worth of EU chocolate bars in 2015 and €711 million in 2025 (+110%). However, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration fell from 5,802 to 4,083 (−30%), indicating that Switzerland and the UK, while still dominant, were sharing the market with a growing number of suppliers. Export concentration also declined, from 1,937 to 1,667 (−14%).

Partner concentration data

Türkiye, Ukraine, and Serbia emerge as fast-growing import partners

The most striking shift on the import side was the emergence of three new partners of considerable weight:

Top import partners data

Türkiye's rise from a negligible supplier to a €45 million source reflects both its growing confectionery manufacturing capacity and the deepening EU-Turkey customs union framework. Ukraine's dramatic growth, from €1 million to €26 million, is closely linked to the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and, from 2022 onward, to autonomous trade liberalisation measures introduced following Russia's invasion. Serbia's growth similarly reflects EU candidate-country trade integration. These shifts collectively diversified the EU's import base and reduced the structural dependence on a small number of Western European neighbours.

Transatlantic and Australasian markets gain ground as export destinations

While the United Kingdom remained the dominant export partner, several overseas markets grew at a faster pace:

Top export partners data

The United States emerged as the second-largest export market, growing from €86 million to €237 million. Australia and Canada both more than doubled their intake. Notably, exports to the Russian Federation also grew substantially, from €39 million to €127 million (+225%), though volumes peaked at €207 million before declining — likely reflecting the impact of sanctions and trade restrictions from 2022 onward. This geographical broadening reduced the EU's export concentration and expanded its global footprint for chocolate bars well beyond the traditional European neighbourhood.

3. A Deepening Export Orientation Across the EU

The EU's net trade surplus widened nearly fourfold

The EU has been a consistent net exporter of chocolate bars throughout the entire period, but the scale of its surplus grew dramatically. The trade balance widened from €483 million in 2015 to €1.26 billion in 2025, an increase of 161%. Net import reliance — which is negative for a net exporter — deepened from −5.6% to −21.9%, meaning that the EU's export surplus more than tripled relative to the size of its domestic market. The strongest export position was recorded in 2024 at −23.3%.

*Relative change in the negative ratio.

Net import reliance data

Trade intensity and export propensity both tripled

Two structural indicators confirm the EU's deepening integration into global chocolate bar markets. Trade intensity — the combined share of imports and exports in total domestic production — rose from 12.5% to 33.0% (+164%). Export propensity — the share of domestic production destined for non-EU markets — climbed from 9.1% to 27.0% (+195%). These figures indicate that by 2025, more than one in four chocolate bars produced in the EU was sold outside the bloc, up from roughly one in eleven a decade earlier.

Export propensity data

Germany and Belgium drive the EU's export expansion

Behind the aggregate figures, a small number of EU member states account for the bulk of the export surge. Germany remained the EU's largest chocolate bar exporter, with shipments rising from €277 million to €598 million (+116%). However, the most dramatic growth came from Belgium, whose exports surged from €69 million to €262 million (+277%) — more than tripling and overtaking Ireland, Poland, and France to become the EU's second-largest exporter. The Netherlands similarly saw explosive growth (+317%), rising from €30 million to €126 million.

EU reporter data

EU domestic production also expanded over the period, with output rising from 831,000 tonnes and €3.76 billion in 2015 to 960,000 tonnes and €6.30 billion in 2025 — a volume increase of 16% and a value increase of 68%. Germany accounted for 41.5% of EU production in 2025, followed by Austria (7.9%). Bulgaria, Austria, and Croatia displayed the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in this product, while Ireland, the Netherlands, and Luxembourg showed the lowest specialisation — consistent with their roles as general trading hubs rather than dedicated chocolate producers.

Production volumes data

Conclusion

The EU chocolate bar market (CN 180632) has undergone a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. While volumes grew moderately — and in fact contracted in the most recent years — trade values surged to unprecedented levels, driven almost entirely by the steep rise in unit prices that accelerated from 2022 onward in line with the global cocoa supply crisis. Simultaneously, the EU's trade geography has diversified meaningfully: traditional partners like the UK and Switzerland have retained their leading positions but lost relative share, while Türkiye, Ukraine, and Serbia have emerged as significant import sources, and transatlantic markets have absorbed a growing share of EU exports. Structurally, the EU has consolidated its position as a major net exporter, with export propensity and trade intensity both tripling. Belgium and the Netherlands have emerged as particularly dynamic exporters alongside the established German powerhouse. Looking ahead, the sustainability of value growth will depend critically on whether cocoa supply normalises and how effectively EU producers manage the balance between rising input costs and consumer price sensitivity in key markets.