Market evolution: Sweetened cocoa powder (CN 180610) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Sweetened cocoa powder (CN 180610) covers cocoa powders containing added sugar or other sweetening matter, classified across four sub-headings depending on sucrose content. Over the period 2015–2025, the EU trade in this product has undergone a structural transformation: volumes have contracted sharply on both the export and import sides, but surging unit prices have partially cushioned the decline in value terms. At the same time, the geography of trade was fundamentally redrawn—driven primarily by Brexit, the collapse of Ireland's export base, and a diversification of both sourcing and destination markets. This report examines the main dynamics behind these shifts and discusses their implications for the EU's position in global sweetened cocoa powder trade.

1. Declining Volumes Offset by a Surge in Unit Values

1.1. Export volumes contracted by nearly a third while values fell by a quarter

Between 2015 and 2025, EU extra-EU exports of sweetened cocoa powder declined from 7,785 tonnes (€44.4 million) to 5,374 tonnes (€32.9 million), representing a −31.0% drop in volume and −25.8% drop in value. The decline was not linear: export volumes peaked at 9,081 tonnes in 2017 before entering a sustained downward trend, with a particularly sharp contraction in 2020 (6,873 tonnes) coinciding with the COVID-19 pandemic. By 2025, volumes had reached their lowest point in the series.

1.2. Import volumes fell even more steeply, nearly halving

EU imports from non-EU countries experienced a steeper contraction in volume terms: from 2,160 tonnes in 2015 to just 853 tonnes in 2025, a −60.5% decline. Import value declined more moderately (−21.3%, from €7.5 million to €5.9 million) because unit prices nearly doubled over the same period, rising from €3,458/tonne in 2015 to €6,885/tonne in 2025 (+99.1%).

1.3. EU production declined in parallel, reinforcing the volume contraction

According to PRODCOM production data, EU domestic production of sweetened cocoa powder fell from an estimated 156.5 million kg in 2015 to 160.0 million kg in 2024 (−19.2% from the 2003 baseline of 198.0 million kg). A notable dip to an estimated 100 million kg occurred in 2020, likely reflecting pandemic-related disruptions. Production value followed a similar trajectory, declining from €453 million (2015) to €380 million (2024). The EU thus remained a substantial net exporter—the net import reliance ratio stayed negative throughout (indicating a trade surplus), widening from −0.6% in 2003 to −6.4% in 2024—suggesting that the EU's surplus in this product actually grew in relative terms even as absolute trade volumes shrank.

2. Brexit and the Collapse of Ireland's Export Dominance

2.1. Ireland went from the EU's leading exporter to a marginal player

The single most dramatic structural change in the period was the near-total collapse of Ireland's extra-EU exports. In 2015, Ireland accounted for €21.3 million of extra-EU exports—nearly 48% of the EU total. This figure peaked at €24.6 million in 2019, before plummeting to €0.9 million in 2025 (−95.8%). The timing strongly suggests that the bulk of Ireland's exports were directed to the United Kingdom, and that Brexit—by converting intra-EU flows into extra-EU trade subject to customs formalities—restructured both the statistical recording and the commercial reality of these shipments.

2.2. Other EU members absorbed the lost export capacity

As Ireland's exports collapsed, several continental EU members dramatically expanded their extra-EU exports:

Belgium's export growth (+862%) is especially striking, as is Italy's steady rise. Germany, by contrast, saw its exports fall by 87%, from €6.4 million to €0.8 million. The net result was a shift from a highly concentrated export base (dominated by Ireland and Germany) to a more distributed one.

2.3. The United Kingdom remained the dominant partner but lost share

The United Kingdom was by far the largest destination for EU sweetened cocoa powder exports throughout the period, reflecting deep supply-chain integration (particularly with Irish manufacturers). However, its share declined markedly:

Similarly, UK-sourced imports into the EU fell from €6.9 million (92.5% of EU imports) in 2015 to €2.9 million (49.3%) in 2025. This bilateral contraction is consistent with the hypothesis that much of what was recorded as UK–EU trade before Brexit was reclassified or restructured after January 2021.

3. Diversification of Trade Partners and the Emergence of Price Shocks

3.1. Partner concentration fell sharply on both sides

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import partners (by value) fell from 8,570 in 2015 to 3,164 in 2025 (−63.1%), and for export partners from 4,095 to 1,655 (−59.6%). Both indicate a substantial diversification of trade away from single-partner dominance.

On the import side, new suppliers emerged to partially replace the declining UK share:

Switzerland's emergence as the second-largest import source is notable and may reflect re-export activity through Swiss trading houses. Colombia's rise from virtually zero to €231,592 mirrors the country's growing role as a cocoa-processing hub.

On the export side, Morocco and China emerged as fast-growing destinations, while Ukraine's exports surged in 2016–2019 before declining:

3.2. Unit prices surged from 2022 onwards, driven by global cocoa market dynamics

The most striking price development occurred on the import side, where unit values nearly doubled from €3,458/tonne (2015) to €6,885/tonne (2025). Export unit values rose more moderately, from €5,699/tonne to €6,128/tonne (+7.5%), though this masks significant variation by sub-segment and destination.

The sub-segment breakdown reveals that the price trajectory varied substantially across sucrose-content categories. For exports:

The collapse in the unit value of sub-heading 18061015 exports (from €18.97/kg to €9.63/kg) alongside a volume decline from 1,238 to 567 tonnes suggests a structural change in the composition of this high-value niche. Meanwhile, the medium-sugar segment (18061020) maintained its volume dominance and saw prices more than double.

3.3. Export-side price shocks were detected for several partners

The volatility analysis identified four significant price shock events on the export side:

These shocks share a common pattern: a sharp contraction in volume accompanied by a dramatic increase in unit value, suggesting either a shift toward higher-value product mixes, or the unwinding of low-price bulk contracts. On the import side, quantity volatility was highest for Ghana (CV = 1.59), Côte d'Ivoire (CV = 1.52), and Colombia (CV = 1.27), reflecting the episodic and opportunistic nature of sourcing from West African and Latin American origins.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's sweetened cocoa powder trade contracted in volume but was cushioned by rising unit prices—particularly from 2022 onward, in line with the global cocoa price surge. The most consequential structural change was Brexit-related: Ireland's collapse as the EU's dominant exporter and the UK's reduction as both the primary destination and source market. This upheaval triggered a significant diversification of trade partnerships, with the Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy emerging as key EU exporters, and Switzerland, Colombia, and Türkiye gaining ground on the import side. Despite these disruptions, the EU maintained—and even strengthened—its position as a net exporter, with production remaining largely oriented toward domestic processing and re-export. The rising frequency of price shocks, especially for smaller-volume export partners, points to an increasingly volatile global market that will require continued monitoring.