Market evolution: Malt extract (CN 1901) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's trade performance for customs code 1901, encompassing malt extract and various food preparations, from 2015 to 2025. The analysis is based on yearly trade data with non-EU countries, revealing a dynamic market characterized by strong export growth, significant price evolution, and shifting geographical partnerships. The EU has consistently maintained a substantial trade surplus in this sector, underlining its role as a major global supplier.

1. The EU as an Export Powerhouse: Sustained Growth in Value and Volume

The period 2015-2025 saw the EU consolidate its position as a major net exporter of CN 1901 products. While imports remained relatively modest in scale, exports experienced robust expansion, driving the trade surplus to new heights.

Exports significantly outpaced imports, creating a growing trade surplus

The EU's trade balance for CN 1901 products improved markedly. The surplus grew from €5.69 billion in 2015 to €8.52 billion in 2025, a 49.8% increase. This was fueled by export value rising by 47.1% to nearly €9 billion, whereas import value grew by only 10.3% to €454.7 million. The EU's net import reliance shifted from -27.8% to -131.2%, confirming its strengthening position as a net exporter.

Export growth was driven by both volume increases and higher unit prices

EU export volume (quantity) increased by 24.4% over the decade, from 1.58 million tonnes to 1.97 million tonnes. Concurrently, the average export price per tonne rose by 18.3%, climbing from €3,857 to €4,561. This indicates that the EU successfully expanded its export footprint while also moving into higher-value market segments or benefiting from general inflationary pressures.

Production within the EU supported the export expansion

Available production data shows a substantial increase in EU manufacturing capacity for CN 1901 products. Production quantity more than doubled (+111.6%) from 2.26 billion kg in 2015 to 4.78 billion kg in 2025. The value of this production surged by 266.7% to €14.43 billion, reflecting both higher output and increased unit values.

2. Shifting Geographical Currents: The Reconfiguration of Trading Partners

The landscape of EU trade partners for CN 1901 products underwent significant restructuring, with China emerging as the dominant export market and import sources becoming more diversified.

China became the EU's single largest export destination

Exports to China grew by 95.2% over the period, from €1.26 billion to €2.47 billion. At its peak in 2022, China accounted for over €3.03 billion in EU exports. This dramatic rise underscores the critical importance of the Chinese market for EU food preparers. The United Kingdom also remained a key and growing partner, with exports increasing by 73.1% to €1.02 billion.

Import sources became more diversified but remained geographically concentrated

The import market saw a decline in traditional suppliers and the rise of new ones. Switzerland's share fell by 49.2%, while imports from Serbia (+637.7%), China (+243.8%), and Türkiye (+342.4%) grew substantially. The United Kingdom solidified its position as the leading import source, with flows increasing by 45.8% to €233.4 million.

The concentration of export markets fluctuated while import sources became slightly less concentrated

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for export value increased by 20.3%, indicating a slight movement towards greater concentration on key partners like China and the UK. Conversely, the import HHI fell by 7.2%, signifying a mild diversification away from previously dominant suppliers.

3. Price Dynamics, Volatility, and Market Resilience

The decade was marked by notable price inflation across most CN 1901 product segments, with specific shock events and varying degrees of volatility among trading partners.

All major product sub-segments experienced significant price inflation

The most pronounced price increases occurred in the 190110 (infant food preparations) and 190120 (mixes and doughs) sub-categories.

This broad-based price growth contributed to the overall increase in the average export price and likely reflects input cost pressures and inflationary trends in the global food supply chain.

Trade flows showed varying levels of stability, with specific price shocks detected in 2022

The coefficient of variation (CV) for trade flows indicates stability. For exports, flows to the United Kingdom (CV: 0.10) and Saudi Arabia (CV: 0.12) were highly stable, while those to Hong Kong (CV: 0.58) and Yemen (CV: 0.50) were more volatile. The analysis of shock events identified abnormal price shifts in 2022, notably a 32.5% price spike for exports to the United Arab Emirates, coinciding with global supply chain disruptions.

The EU demonstrated structural resilience through high export propensity

The EU's export propensity for CN 1901 products increased dramatically from 25.3% in 2015 to 60.0% in 2025. This indicates that a growing share of EU production in this sector is destined for international markets, highlighting the sector's competitiveness and integration into global trade.

Conclusion

The EU market for CN 1901 products between 2015 and 2025 evolved into a firmly export-oriented sector characterized by value growth, geographic reorientation, and rising prices. The EU capitalized on its manufacturing base to more than double its trade surplus, with China becoming the pivotal partner for exports. While imports diversified slightly, they remained dwarfed by outbound flows. The period was also marked by significant price inflation across product segments and localized volatility, against which the sector showed considerable resilience, evidenced by its sharply increasing export propensity. The data points to a mature, competitive EU industry for these food preparations, though its growing reliance on specific external markets also underscores a potential vulnerability to geopolitical and economic shifts in those regions.