Market evolution: Malt and milk preparations (CN 190190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade performance of the European Union for Combined Nomenclature code 190190 from 2015 to 2025. This residual category encompasses a diverse range of products, including malt extract and various food preparations based on flour, starch, or milk, excluding infant food and bakers' mixes. Over the decade, the EU has solidified its position as a major net exporter of these goods. The period is characterized by significant expansion in export volumes and values, robust growth in domestic production, and a strategic shift in trade partnerships and import sources, culminating in a substantial and growing trade surplus. The analysis reveals a market that has become more specialized, export-oriented, and resilient, though not without periods of volatility and price shocks.

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1. A Decade of Export-Led Expansion and a Widening Trade Surplus

The period from 2015 to 2025 was defined by strong and sustained growth in the EU's external trade for CN 190190, with exports significantly outpacing imports. This dynamic transformed the EU into a dominant net exporter for this product category.

Robust Export Growth Fuels a Record Trade Surplus

EU exports of malt and milk preparations increased markedly in both value and volume. Export value rose from €1.73 billion in 2015 to €2.92 billion in 2025, a 69.3% increase. Export volumes grew from 870,453 tonnes to 1,144,359 tonnes (+31.5%). While imports also grew, their increase was less pronounced (value +40.8%). Consequently, the EU's trade balance expanded dramatically, from a surplus of €1.58 billion in 2015 to a surplus of €2.72 billion in 2025 (+71.9%), highlighting the sector's increasing contribution to the EU's external trade position.

Price Dynamics: Rising Unit Values Reflect Cost Pressures or Product Upgrading

The average export price (value per tonne) increased from €1,982 in 2015 to €2,552 in 2025 (+28.8%). Import prices followed a similar, though slightly less pronounced, trend (+16.8%). This general increase in unit values suggests a combination of factors over the period, such as global inflation in food commodities, rising production costs (energy, labor), or a shift in the product mix towards higher-value items.

The United Kingdom Emerges as the Primary Export Destination

The top destination for EU exports in 2025 was the United Kingdom, absorbing €306 million worth of goods. Other major markets include Senegal (€219 million), Saudi Arabia (€182 million), and Nigeria (€140 million). Notably, the value of exports to the UK more than doubled over the period (+134.0%), cementing its importance. Strong growth was also seen in exports to Senegal (+186.0%) and the United Arab Emirates (+115.6%).

2. Production Boom and Increasing Specialization within the EU

The surge in exports was underpinned by a massive expansion and structural shift in EU domestic production, concentrating in specific member states with strong comparative advantages.

Domestic Production Soars, Bolstering Export Capacity

EU production of CN 190190 goods witnessed a extraordinary increase in both volume and value. Quantity produced grew from approximately 124 million kg in 2015 to over 1.85 billion kg in 2025. The production value surged even more dramatically, from €75 million to nearly €4.79 billion. This exponential growth indicates that the EU's manufacturing base for these preparations scaled up significantly to meet both domestic and, crucially, international demand, reducing net import reliance.

Ireland and Denmark: The Specialized Core of EU Production

An analysis of revealed comparative advantage shows a clear pattern of specialization. Ireland is by far the most specialized member state in this product category (RSCA: 0.68, RCA: 5.28), contributing 11% of EU production value. Denmark also displays strong specialization (RSCA: 0.15). These countries are major exporters; Ireland's exports alone reached €705 million in 2025. In contrast, many newer EU member states show negative specialization, indicating they are net importers within the single market.

Diversified Export Base but Concentrated Imports

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for trade concentration reveals an interesting asymmetry. Export destinations are relatively diversified (HHI value fell from 429 to 351). In contrast, the origin of imports is more concentrated, with the HHI rising from 2,629 to 3,313. This suggests that while the EU sells to many markets, its supply sources for these preparations (or their inputs) are more consolidated.

3. Import Market Reorientation: The UK's Dominance and the Retreat of Asian Hubs

While the EU is a net exporter, its import profile for CN 190190 has undergone a significant reorientation, heavily influenced by geopolitical and trade realignments, most notably Brexit.

The United Kingdom Becomes the Principal Import Source

Following Brexit, the United Kingdom transformed from an intra-EU trading partner to the EU's largest extra-EU import source for this product category. Import value from the UK nearly doubled, from €59 million in 2015 to €111 million in 2025 (+89.8%). This starkly illustrates the trade diversion effect of the UK's departure from the single market and customs union.

Volatility in Traditional Asian Supply Hubs

A major dynamic is the sharp decline in imports from Singapore, a traditional transshipment and processing hub. Import values fell by 85.9% from €25 million to €4 million. Similarly, imports from the United States contracted by 64.4%. This suggests a re-routing of supply chains, possibly due to stricter rules of origin or a shift towards sourcing from non-Asian producers. Conversely, imports from China (+338.7%) and South Korea (+476.8%) grew, indicating their rising roles as direct suppliers.

Rising Import Prices and Notable Price Shocks

Overall import prices increased by 16.8%. However, the data identifies specific supply shock events, particularly on the export side. The most significant was a price shock to the United Arab Emirates in 2022 (abnormality score: 27.0, price shift: +37.3%), which may reflect disrupted supply chains or speculative trading during a period of global economic uncertainty.

Conclusion

The EU's market for malt and milk preparations (CN 190190) between 2015 and 2025 evolved from a balanced trade position to one of pronounced export strength. This was driven by a monumental expansion in domestic production, particularly in specialized member states like Ireland and Denmark, which capitalized on growing global demand. The trade landscape was reshaped by two major forces: the continued importance of African and Middle Eastern markets for EU exports, and the dramatic post-Brexit reorientation of imports towards the United Kingdom as a primary external supplier. The period was also marked by rising unit values and specific volatility in certain markets, reflecting broader economic pressures and supply chain adjustments. Overall, the data portrays a sector that has successfully scaled its productive capacity to become a key component of the EU's agri-food trade surplus.