Market evolution: Tapioca starch products (CN 1903) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in tapioca and substitutes therefor prepared from starch, in the form of flakes, grains, pearls, siftings or similar forms (Combined Nomenclature code 1903), covering the period from 2015 to 2025. Over this decade, the European Union's import bill for this product category nearly doubled — rising from approximately €7.6 million to €14.5 million (+91.1%) — while exports grew more modestly from €1.6 million to €2.1 million (+35.1%). The overall trade overview reveals a structural deficit that has widened considerably: the trade balance deteriorated from −€6.0 million in 2015 to −€12.4 million in 2025 (−105.9%), underscoring the EU's growing dependence on extra-EU suppliers for this niche but strategically relevant starch-based product.

1. Surging imports and deepening trade deficit

1.1 EU import volumes and values have risen sharply

Between 2015 and 2025, EU extra-EU imports of CN 1903 grew from 6,843 tonnes (€7.6 million) to 11,080 tonnes (€14.5 million), representing volume growth of +61.9% and value growth of +91.1%. The gap between value and volume growth reflects a broader trend of rising unit import prices over the period.

Source: General Overview — Trade

1.2 The trade deficit has more than doubled

The EU is a structural net importer of tapioca starch products. The trade deficit widened from −€6.0 million in 2015 to −€12.4 million in 2025, representing a deterioration of 105.9%. At its worst point, the deficit reached −€18.1 million, reflecting periods of particularly heavy import demand. Net import reliance surged from 25.8% in 2015 to 74.5% in 2025 — a near-tripling (+188.6%) — indicating that the EU's domestic production base covers an increasingly small share of consumption.

Source: Net import reliance

1.3 Export growth has not kept pace

EU exports of CN 1903 grew in value from €1.6 million to €2.1 million (+35.1%) but actually declined in volume from 917 tonnes to 798 tonnes (−13.0%). The export unit price, however, rose sharply from €1,732/t to €2,688/t (+55.2%), suggesting that the EU's export niche lies in higher-value or more processed product forms. Despite this price premium, EU exports remain roughly seven times smaller than imports in value terms.

Source: General Overview — Trade

2. Diversifying supplier landscape with a Thai core

2.1 Thailand remains the dominant supplier but has lost market share

Thailand was the EU's leading source of tapioca starch product imports throughout the period, starting at €4.3 million in 2015 and ending at €3.2 million in 2025 (−24.9% change). However, Thailand's share of total EU imports has declined substantially as new suppliers have entered or expanded. Thailand's import value peaked at €7.5 million in an intermediate year, but by 2025 had fallen back. This is consistent with a broader diversification of the EU's sourcing base.

2.2 West African and Asian suppliers have surged

Several supplier countries recorded extraordinary growth over the period:

Source: Top partners — Imports

Côte d'Ivoire (+925.0%), Taiwan (+1,220.6%), and Brazil (+1,185.1%) emerged as major suppliers by 2025, each crossing the €1.7 million threshold. China nearly doubled its exports to the EU (€3.5 million). This diversification from a Thai-dominated market toward a broader set of West African, East Asian, and Latin American suppliers has reshaped the competitive landscape. The United Kingdom, once a significant source (likely reflecting pre-Brexit intra-EU flows reclassified as extra-EU), saw its share collapse to just €91,343 (−73.6%).

2.3 Import concentration has fallen markedly

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value dropped from 3,750 in 2015 to 1,586 in 2025 (−57.7%), confirming a significant deconcentration of the supplier base. An HHI below 2,500 generally indicates a moderately competitive market. The volume-based HHI fell even more steeply, from 5,068 to 1,799 (−64.5%). This reduced concentration lowers the EU's vulnerability to supply disruptions from any single origin country.

Source: Concentration — HHI

2.4 EU export destinations have also evolved

On the export side, the United States (€736,413) and the United Kingdom (€754,571) remain the top two destinations for EU exports of CN 1903, together accounting for the majority of outward shipments. Notable growth was recorded in Norway (+559.1% to €179,510), Portugal (as a re-exporter, visible in the reporter data), and Russia (+293.6% to €120,000). Export concentration by destination remained moderate (HHI of 2,676), with no single market dominating.

Source: Top partners — Exports

3. Price shocks, volatility, and EU member-state dynamics

3.1 A significant import price shock from China in 2021

The most notable shock event detected over the period was a price spike in EU imports from China in 2021, with an abnormality score of 47.9 and a year-on-year price shift of +45.0%. This event represented 29.9% of the import value in that period and likely reflects the post-COVID supply chain disruptions, shipping cost inflation, and raw material shortages that affected global starch commodity markets in 2021. A secondary export-side price shock was detected for Switzerland in 2021 (+82.4% shift), which may reflect the same macroeconomic pressures transmitting into EU export pricing.

Source: Supply shocks

3.2 Import volatility varies widely by supplier

The coefficient of variation (CV) of import values by partner reveals that Thailand (CV = 0.21) and China (CV = 0.28) are relatively stable suppliers, while others exhibit much higher volatility:

Source: Volatility

On the export side, the United States (CV = 0.18) and the United Kingdom (CV = 0.18) are the most stable EU export markets, while Canada (CV = 2.32), China (CV = 1.66), and Norway (CV = 1.32) show very high variability, suggesting sporadic or opportunistic trade flows.

3.3 The Netherlands and France dominate intra-EU trade hubs

Among EU member states, the Netherlands emerged as the largest importer from outside the EU by 2025 (€5.1 million, +140.4%), overtaking France (€2.6 million, −25.8%). Belgium (€1.7 million, +175.5%) and Germany (€1.7 million, +210.3%) also recorded substantial growth. Portugal and Italy showed the most dramatic increases (+1,385.4% and +933.5% respectively), suggesting growing consumption or re-export activity in southern Europe.

Source: Top reporters — Imports

France remains the EU's leading exporter to non-EU markets (€1.3 million), followed by the Netherlands (€188,000). Several smaller member states — notably Germany (+527.9%), Sweden (+302.6%), and Portugal (+1,070.5%) — grew their export presence significantly, albeit from low bases.

Source: Top reporters — Exports

3.4 EU production remains marginal and flat

EU domestic production of CN 1903 (as measured by PRODCOM data) remained flat at 2,000 kg in both the first and last available years, while production value rose modestly from €4,000 to €6,000 (+50.0%). These are extremely small volumes — orders of magnitude below import quantities — confirming that the EU is fundamentally import-dependent for this product category. The production volumes data underscores that the widening trade deficit is not a cyclical phenomenon but a structural one.

Conclusion

The EU market for tapioca starch products (CN 1903) underwent substantial transformation between 2015 and 2025. Imports nearly doubled in value while the trade deficit more than doubled, driven by growing domestic consumption against a backdrop of negligible EU production. The supplier landscape diversified significantly: while Thailand remained the single largest origin, its share declined as Côte d'Ivoire, China, Taiwan, and Brazil all emerged as substantial suppliers — a shift confirmed by the 57.7% drop in import concentration (HHI). This diversification is a positive development for supply security, though several of the newer suppliers exhibitThe request was rejected because it was considered high risk