Market evolution: Bakery products (CN 1905) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU external trade in bakery products classified under CN 1905 — a broad heading that encompasses bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits, waffles, crispbread, gingerbread, communion wafers, rice paper and related bakers' wares. The period under review spans eleven complete years from 2015 to 2025 and covers the EU's trade with all non-EU countries.

Over this decade, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter of bakery products. Export value more than doubled, rising from €4.9 billion to €10.6 billion, while imports grew at a slower pace from €1.3 billion to €2.4 billion. The resulting trade surplus widened from €3.6 billion to €8.3 billion — a 128% increase. These headline figures mask significant structural shifts in partner geography, product composition and pricing dynamics, which the following sections examine in detail.

1. A Widening Trade Surplus: EU Exports Outpace Imports at Scale

Export value more than doubled while imports, though robust, grew at roughly half that rate

The most striking macro-level dynamic over 2015–2025 is the asymmetry in growth between EU exports and imports. Export value rose by 115.8% — from €4,931 million to €10,641 million — while import value increased by 82.1%, from €1,293 million to €2,354 million. The export surge was driven by a combination of volume growth (+48.7%, reaching 2.46 million tonnes) and price increases (+45.1%, reaching €4,331 per tonne). Import volumes also expanded substantially (+65.4%, to 849,073 tonnes), but import prices rose only modestly (+10.1%, to €2,773 per tonne), diluting the value effect.

Source: EU trade overview. Values and unit prices derived from reported value and quantity data.

The EU's bakery sector proved resilient through the COVID-19 shock, with the trade surplus continuing to widen even in 2020

Unlike many manufacturing sectors, EU bakery exports held essentially flat in 2020, edging up by just 0.2% in value terms despite the pandemic. Imports dipped by 5.1% in volume but only 3.3% in value, indicating that bakery demand proved structurally resilient as an essential consumer good. The post-pandemic period then saw an acceleration: export value grew by 12.4% in 2021, 19.0% in 2022, and 12.5% in 2023 — a three-year burst likely amplified by inflationary cost pass-through and restocking dynamics. Growth moderated to 4.9% in 2024 and 4.8% in 2025, suggesting a return toward a steadier trajectory.

Rising trade intensity and export propensity signal a sector increasingly oriented toward global markets

Trade intensity — the ratio of combined exports and imports to EU production value — rose from 5.1% in 2015 to 12.7% in 2025, a 150.7% increase. Even more striking, export propensity — exports as a share of production — climbed from 3.8% to 10.7% (+178.5%). This means that EU bakery producers have progressively channelled a larger share of their output to non-EU markets. At the same time, EU production itself grew substantially: quantity rose by 27.8% (from 26.1 billion kg to 33.4 billion kg) and value by 79.0% (from €53.2 billion to €95.1 billion). The fact that production value grew nearly three times faster than volume points to significant price inflation across the sector, including for raw materials and energy.

The EU's net import reliance deepened from −2.6% to −9.2%, confirming that the EU has become an increasingly pronounced net exporter of bakery products over the decade.

2. Geographic Reorientation: Diversifying Suppliers and Deepening Market Reach

The United Kingdom remains the dominant partner for EU bakery trade, but its relative share has shifted

Post-Brexit, the United Kingdom emerged as the single largest non-EU partner for EU bakery trade in both directions. On the export side, EU shipments to the UK nearly doubled from €1,926 million to €3,856 million (+100.2%), accounting for approximately 36% of total EU bakery exports in 2025. On the import side, imports from the UK grew from €776 million to €1,037 million (+33.6%) — the slowest growth rate among the top seven import partners — yet the UK still supplied 44% of EU bakery imports by value in 2025. Ireland was the largest EU Member State importer, reflecting the island's geographic proximity to and supply-chain integration with the UK.

Emerging suppliers — Ukraine, Türkiye, and Serbia — have rapidly gained share in EU imports

Behind the UK, a group of faster-growing suppliers has reshaped the import landscape:

Source: Top import partners by value.

Ukraine stands out with a near-tenfold increase in export value to the EU, growing from €18 million to €191 million. This trajectory is consistent with the progressive liberalisation of EU–Ukraine trade under the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), which has been in force since 2016 and was further accelerated by temporary autonomous trade measures introduced after 2022. Türkiye's growth (+210.1%) and Serbia's expansion (+375.0%) similarly reflect the combination of cost-competitive manufacturing bases and preferential trade arrangements with the EU.

The export landscape diversified toward high-income non-European markets

On the export side, the most dramatic growth came from distant markets:

Source: Top export partners by value.

The United States was the standout performer among non-European destinations, with EU bakery exports tripling from €438 million to €1,454 million (+231.5%). Canada (+195.4%) and Australia (+118.5%) showed similarly strong trajectories, suggesting that EU producers successfully penetrated premium segments in Anglophone and high-income markets. Russia, by contrast, saw the slowest growth (+36.7%) among the top seven, and the volatility analysis assigns it the highest coefficient of variation (0.36) among major export partners, consistent with geopolitical and sanctions-related disruptions.

Import concentration fell sharply, confirming a meaningful diversification of EU supply sources

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports declined by 40.9%, from 3,740 in 2015 to 2,209 in 2025. While the index remains above the 2,500 threshold that typically indicates a moderately concentrated market, the direction of travel is significant: the EU has substantially broadened its base of bakery import suppliers. By contrast, the export HHI fell only 7.9% (from 1,768 to 1,628), reflecting a more stable and already-diversified destination structure for EU exports.

EU Member States display markedly different competitive profiles

Specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals a clear divide among EU members:

Source: Specialisation indices. RSCA = Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage.

Central and Eastern European members (Latvia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Poland) display the strongest comparative advantage in bakery exports, consistent with their large-scale, cost-competitive food processing industries. Italy — the EU's single largest bakery exporter at €2,017 million in 2025 (+149.6% over the period) — also shows strong specialisation. At the other end, Malta, Ireland and Cyprus have near-zero or negative RSCA values, indicating that their bakery sectors are oriented primarily toward domestic or intra-EU consumption rather than external exports.

Among the top EU Member State exporters, Poland stands out for its exceptional growth trajectory:

Source: Top EU reporter exports.

Poland's 221.5% growth outpaced all other major exporters, lifting it from the fifth to the fifth-but-closing-the-gap position. Spain also recorded a striking 164.4% increase. Germany, while still the second-largest exporter, grew at the slowest rate (+61.3%) among the top seven, suggesting it may be approaching a more mature stage in external market penetration.

3. Uneven Growth Across Product Segments: Premiumization and Structural Shifts

The residual "other bakers' wares" category (CN 190590) dominates and drives overall volume expansion

CN 1905 is a bundled heading comprising six sub-categories. The largest by far is CN 190590, a residual category covering bread, pastry, cakes, biscuits and other bakers' wares not elsewhere specified. This segment accounted for 65.8% of EU export value and 62.6% of import value in 2025.

On the export side, CN 190590 volumes grew from 1,021,410 tonnes to 1,622,396 tonnes (+58.8%), and value from €2,818 million to €6,341 million (+125.0%). On the import side, the segment saw a particularly sharp acceleration in 2025: volumes surged from 404,081 tonnes in 2024 to 615,798 tonnes in 2025 (+52.4%), while the unit price simultaneously dropped from €3,362 to €2,394 per tonne (−28.8%). This combination — a volume spike accompanied by a price decline — points to the entry of new, lower-cost suppliers (potentially from Ukraine and Türkiye) into this broadest product category.

Waffles and wafers (CN 190532) emerged as the fastest-growing defined sub-category

Waffles and wafers recorded the strongest proportional growth among all defined sub-categories:

Source: Product segment breakdown.

Import value in waffles and wafers nearly quadrupled, growing by 283.2% — the highest rate of any sub-category. Export values grew by 154.7%, driven by both volume expansion (+75.5%) and the highest absolute price level of any segment (€6,583 per tonne in 2025). This points to a strong global appetite for premium, branded EU waffle and wafer products, while rising imports suggest growing EU demand for specialty products from non-EU producers.

Sweet biscuits (CN 190531), the second-largest segment, also posted solid growth: exports rose from €1,114 million to €2,192 million (+96.7%) and imports from €330 million to €502 million (+52.0%).

Crispbread and gingerbread exports contracted sharply, losing more than half their volumes

In contrast to the overall upward trend, two traditional sub-categories experienced pronounced declines:

Source: Product segment breakdown.

Crispbread exports collapsed by 63.1%, falling from 58,734 tonnes to just 21,654 tonnes. The decline was front-loaded: volumes halved between 2017 (64,703 t) and 2019 (21,233 t) before stabilising at the lower level. Notably, crispbread export prices rose from €2,264 to €4,024 per tonne over the period, suggesting a retreat to lower-volume, higher-value positioning. Gingerbread exports declined by 50.5%, following a steadier downward trajectory. These declines may reflect shifting consumer preferences away from traditional products, competitive displacement by similar products from neighbouring non-EU countries, or supply-chain restructuring by EU producers.

Export prices rose broadly across segments, consistent with premiumization and cost pass-through

Every export sub-category saw its unit price increase over the decade, though to varying degrees:

Source: Product segment breakdown.

Gingerbread saw the most dramatic price increase (+104.7%) despite falling volumes, which may reflect a niche premiumization strategy or the exit of lower-priced product lines from EU export portfolios. Waffles and wafers commanded the highest absolute export price (€6,583/t), consistent with the segment's positioning as a premium confectionery-adjacent product.

On the import side, the picture was more mixed: prices for sweet biscuits (CN 190531) and waffles (CN 190532) increased in line with export trends, but the broad "other bakers' wares" category (CN 190590) saw a sharp price reversal in 2025 — falling from €3,362 to €2,394 per tonne — likely reflecting the influx of lower-cost supply from new trade partners.

Conclusion

The EU bakery products sector (CN 1905) experienced a decade of robust expansion between 2015 and 2025, characterised by three overarching dynamics.

First, the EU consolidated its position as a major net exporter. The trade surplus more than doubled to €8.3 billion, supported by a 27.8% increase in domestic production volumes and a progressive shift of output toward external markets. Export propensity tripled, rising from 3.8% to 10.7% of production value, underscoring the sector's growing international orientation. The sector proved remarkably resilient through the COVID-19 pandemic, with exports holding flat in 2020 before accelerating sharply in 2021–2023.

Second, the geographic landscape of trade was significantly reshaped. The United Kingdom remains the dominant partner on both sides of the ledger, but its share of imports is being eroded by rapidly growing suppliers — most notably Ukraine (+964.8%), Serbia (+375.0%) and Türkiye (+210.1%). The resulting diversification of import sources is captured by a 40.9% decline in the import HHI. On the export side, Italy emerged as the EU's single largest exporter, while Poland (+221.5%) and Spain (+164.4%) posted the fastest growth among major Member States.

Third, product-level dynamics were highly uneven. Premium segments — waffles, wafers and sweet biscuits — drove the bulk of value growth, with rising unit prices signalling successful premiumization. Meanwhile, traditional categories like crispbread and gingerbread suffered steep, likely structural volume declines. The 2025 surge in "other bakers' wares" imports, accompanied by falling prices, hints at a potential competitive shift that warrants monitoring in the years ahead.

Overall, the EU bakery sector enters the second half of the decade in a position of strength, but one that is increasingly shaped by global competition, evolving consumer preferences, and the need to balance volume growth with value retention.