Market evolution: Sweet biscuits (CN 190531) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the European Union's external trade in sweet biscuits (customs code 190531) over the period 2015–2025. Sweet biscuits cover a broad product family — from chocolate-coated varieties sold in small packs to plain biscuits and sandwich biscuits with varying milkfat content. The EU has long been one of the world's leading producers and exporters of these products. Over the eleven-year window studied, the bloc's sweet biscuit trade expanded dramatically in value, reshaping its role as a net exporter, diversifying its supplier base, and shifting toward higher-value product segments. The sections that follow trace these dynamics across trade volumes, geographic partners, and product composition.

1. A Deepening Trade Surplus Fueled Primarily by Value Growth

1.1 Exports nearly doubled in value while imports grew more moderately

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of sweet biscuits rose from €1,114 million to €2,192 million (+96.8%). Over the same period, imports increased from €330 million to €502 million (+51.9%). While both directions of trade grew, the asymmetry in growth rates meant that the EU's trade balance expanded from €784 million to €1,691 million — an increase of 115.7%.

1.2 Rising unit prices, not just higher volumes, drove the value surge

A closer look at the components of export growth reveals that prices contributed more to the value increase than did volume. Export quantities rose by 34.3%, while export prices climbed 46.5% — from €3,128/t to €4,583/t. This pattern is consistent with several overlapping factors: input cost inflation (flour, sugar, energy, packaging), a broader shift toward premium and branded products, and post-2021 supply-chain disruptions that raised production and logistics costs across the food sector. On the import side, quantities grew only 11.0%, but prices rose 36.8%, indicating that the EU is importing relatively less in physical terms while paying significantly more per tonne.

1.3 The EU's net export position strengthened substantially

The net import reliance indicator moved from −8.3% in 2015 to −24.5% in 2025 (negative values denote a net export position). This near-tripling confirms that the EU deepened its role as a structural net exporter of sweet biscuits. Domestic production underpins this: output grew from 2.30 billion kg to 3.35 billion kg (+45.8%) in volume, and from €6.40 billion to €11.98 billion (+87.2%) in value. The export propensity — the share of domestic production directed to non-EU markets — more than doubled, from 11.8% to 25.1%, indicating that a growing fraction of EU output is oriented toward global markets.

2. Geographic Rebalancing: Diversifying Suppliers and Consolidating Western Markets

2.1 The United Kingdom dominates both import and export flows

The UK is by far the EU's largest trade partner for sweet biscuits on both sides. In 2025, it accounted for €666 million in exports (+90.6% vs. 2015) and €246 million in imports (+28.5%). The UK's dominance is partly structural — geographic proximity, shared language, and strong retail ties — but the faster growth of exports to the UK compared to imports from it widened the bilateral surplus in the EU's favour. This likely reflects both the post-Brexit trade adjustment and the strength of EU-based biscuit manufacturers (particularly from the Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany) in supplying the UK market.

2.2 Export growth was strongest in the United States and Israel

Beyond the UK, the most dynamic export markets were the United States (+140.4%, reaching €358 million) and Israel (+174.6%, reaching €62 million). Australia also showed robust growth (+96.4%). These distant, high-income markets are consistent with the premiumisation thesis: EU biscuit exporters are increasingly winning market share in competitive, quality-conscious retail environments. China, by contrast, grew more modestly (+38.4%), potentially reflecting regulatory barriers and competition from local manufacturers.

2.3 Eastern European neighbours emerged as fast-growing import suppliers

On the import side, the most striking developments were the surge in shipments from Ukraine (+421.5%, from €10 million to €50 million) and Serbia (+216.6%, from €9 million to €27 million). Türkiye also nearly doubled (+94.5%). These three countries are all linked to the EU through association or trade-facilitation arrangements. The Ukraine case is especially notable and may reflect both the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and the EU's solidarity-lane measures following Russia's 2022 invasion, which facilitated Ukrainian food exports to the EU. Meanwhile, Switzerland — a historically significant supplier — saw its exports to the EU fall by 65.6%, from €40 million to €14 million.

2.4 Import concentration decreased while export concentration remained stable

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports fell by 24.8%, from 3,662 to 2,754. This decline confirms that the EU's supplier base for sweet biscuits became meaningfully less concentrated — the UK's share diminished in relative terms as newer suppliers (Ukraine, Serbia, Türkiye) gained ground. Export concentration, by contrast, was essentially flat (HHI around 1,295–1,298), suggesting the EU distributes its outbound shipments across a relatively diversified set of markets that did not structurally shift over the period.

2.5 Within the EU, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Italy emerged as export powerhouses

Member-state export data reveals a clear geographic shift in the bloc's export engine. Italy saw the most dramatic expansion (+217.6%, from €102 million to €323 million), followed by Belgium (+169.6%, from €124 million to €334 million). The Netherlands remained the single largest exporter at €354 million. On the import side, the Netherlands also saw import values surge (+364%, reaching €74 million), likely reflecting its role as a logistics hub for re-export. Ireland remained the largest importer within the EU at €139 million, consistent with its close trade ties with the UK.

3. Premiumisation and Segment Dynamics Driving Higher Revenues

3.1 The core segment — basic sweet biscuits — grew steadily in both volume and value

The largest product sub-segment is 19053199 (sweet biscuits with <8% milkfats, excluding chocolate-coated and sandwich types). On the export side, this segment grew from 174,443 tonnes / €447 million to 231,106 tonnes / €853 million. Its unit price rose from €2,563/t to €3,691/t (+44.0%). This core category thus accounted for a large share of overall export growth, driven by both rising volumes and rising prices.

3.2 Sandwich biscuits became the fastest-growing export segment by value

Among the sub-segments, sandwich biscuits (19053191) saw the most remarkable value trajectory. Export revenues soared from €133 million to €453 million (+241%), while volumes grew from 50,352 tonnes to 97,525 tonnes (+93.7%). The unit price nearly doubled, from €2,639/t to €4,646/t. This segment's outperformance likely reflects the global popularity of branded sandwich-style biscuits (cream-filled, layered formats) that command higher retail prices and are well suited to premium positioning.

3.3 Chocolate-coated biscuits showed divergent trends by pack size

The two chocolate-coated sub-segments moved in different directions. For small packs (≤85g) (19053111), exports doubled in value from €131 million to €263 million, with unit prices climbing from €3,208/t to €5,723/t — the steepest price increase of any segment. This is consistent with the premium attached to individually portioned, impulse-purchase chocolate biscuits. For large packs (>85g) (19053119), export value rose from €260 million to €422 million (+62.2%), but volumes actually fell slightly in the last years, from a peak of 87,185 tonnes in 2023 to 72,157 tonnes in 2025, suggesting a recent volume contraction partly offset by continued price gains.

3.4 The high-milkfat segment commands premium prices on both import and export sides

The high-milkfat segment (≥8% milkfats, 19053130) is the smallest by volume but consistently the most expensive per tonne. Export prices reached €6,341/t in 2025, and import prices €8,122/t — nearly double the price of the next-most-expensive segment. Import value for this niche tripled from €15 million to €30 million, while export value grew from €143 million to €201 million. The high and rising import price suggests the EU sources specialised, premium dairy-rich biscuits (likely from the UK and Switzerland) while exporting a somewhat less expensive variant to global markets.

3.5 The EU is a net exporter across all five product sub-segments

Across every sub-segment, the EU runs a structural trade surplus. In 2025, exports exceeded imports by a factor of roughly 4.4x in value. The most unbalanced sub-segment is sandwich biscuits (19053191), where the EU exported €453 million but imported only €58 million. This widespread net export position across categories underscores the EU's comprehensive competitiveness in sweet biscuit manufacturing — from everyday-value lines to premium chocolate-coated and dairy-rich varieties.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU sweet biscuit market evolved from a strong but moderate net export position into one of the world's most significant biscuit exporters, with a trade surplus exceeding €1.6 billion. Three forces drove this transformation. First, domestic production expanded robustly (+45.8% in volume, +87.2% in value), providing the output base for export growth. Second, the geographic footprint broadened: export markets diversified toward the US, Israel, and Australia, while the import supplier base shifted toward Eastern European neighbours — especially Ukraine, Serbia, and Türkiye — and away from Switzerland. Third, a clear premiumisation dynamic took hold: unit prices rose across all segments, with sandwich biscuits and small-pack chocolate-coated varieties recording the steepest gains. The result is an industry that exports an ever-larger share of its production at increasingly higher price points, reinforcing the EU's position as a global leader in the sweet biscuit category.