Market evolution: Bakery products (CN 190590) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the evolution of the European Union's external trade in bakery products falling under Combined Nomenclature code 190590 from 2015 to 2025. This residual category includes a wide range of goods such as bread, pastries, pizzas, and biscuits, excluding more specific products like sweet biscuits and crispbread. The analysis covers trade flows with non-EU countries and is based on provided trade data, production figures, and structural metrics. The EU's position in this market has evolved significantly, characterized by robust export growth, shifting trade patterns, and a strengthening competitive stance.

The EU's Emergence as a Formidable Net Exporter

The most striking dynamic over the reviewed decade is the EU's strengthening position as a major net exporter of these bakery products, with the trade surplus more than doubling.

Exceptional Growth in Export Value and Volume

EU exports of products under code 190590 to non-EU countries surged from €2.82 billion in 2015 to €6.34 billion in 2025, representing a 125.0% increase. This growth was driven by both higher volumes and rising unit values. Export quantity grew by 58.8%, from 1.02 million tonnes to 1.62 million tonnes, while the average export price rose by 41.6% to €3,907 per tonne. This indicates the EU is not only selling more but also commanding higher prices for its exported products.

Sustained Expansion of the Trade Surplus

The EU's trade balance in this sector expanded dramatically from a surplus of €2.01 billion in 2015 to €4.87 billion in 2025, a 142.2% increase. This widening gap underscores the sector's growing positive contribution to the EU's external trade account. The General Overview dashboard provides a visual representation of this trend.

Dominant and Diversifying Export Markets

The United Kingdom remained the EU's largest single export market, with its purchases more than doubling from €1.30 billion to €2.74 billion. However, the most dynamic growth was seen in other markets. Exports to the United States grew by 266.6% to €766 million, making it the third-largest destination. Similarly, exports to Australia (+159.8%) and Japan (+211.8%) expanded rapidly. This diversification, as seen in the top partners by value data, highlights the EU's successful penetration of distant, high-value markets.

Shifting Competitive Dynamics and Market Structure

The EU's internal production landscape and external trade relationships have undergone structural changes that bolster its competitive position.

Robust Domestic Production Underpinning Exports

EU production of these bakers' wares provided a solid foundation for export growth. Production value increased by 74.9% from €44.1 billion to €77.0 billion over the period, while production volume grew by 23.7% to 28.0 million tonnes. This indicates significant value addition within the EU's food processing industry, enabling more competitive and premium exports. The production volumes data confirm this growth.

Evolving Import Sources and Reduced Concentration

While imports also grew (82.2% in value), their composition shifted. Traditional suppliers like the United Kingdom saw modest growth (+36.0%), while imports from countries like Serbia (+492.3%), Türkiye (+242.0%), and China (+123.7%) surged. This diversification is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value, which fell sharply by 40.3% from 3,751 to 2,239, indicating a much less concentrated and potentially more resilient import base. The concentration analysis details this shift.

Disparities in Specialization Among EU Members

In 2025, EU member states showed stark differences in export specialization. According to the specialisation analysis, Italy (RCA: 1.56) and Spain (RCA: 1.46) were highly specialized exporters, while major economies like Germany and France, despite large absolute export volumes, had lower relative specialization. Ireland, a significant exporter in absolute terms, had a very low RCA (0.06), suggesting its exports are less focused on this product category relative to its overall trade basket.

Enhanced Market Resilience and Value-Added Focus

The EU has not only grown its market share but has also improved the resilience and quality focus of its trade in this sector.

Deepening Integration and Reduced Vulnerability

The EU's net import reliance became increasingly negative, moving from -1.7% in 2015 to -6.6% in 2025, confirming its strengthening status as a net exporter. Concurrently, trade intensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 2.5% to 7.9%, indicating that the EU's bakery sector is becoming more globally oriented. This heightened integration reduces reliance on domestic demand and spreads market risk.

Price Divergence Points to Value-Added Strategy

A critical trend is the divergence in price evolution between exports and imports. While the average import price was essentially flat (-2.6% to €2,394/tonne), the average export price grew significantly (+41.6% to €3,907/tonne). This suggests that EU exports are increasingly shifting towards higher-value-added products (e.g., specialized pastries, pizzas) while imports may consist more of basic commodities like bread (CN 19059030). The segment breakdown shows that the high-value "Fruit tarts, croissants..." (19059070) and "Pizzas, quiches..." (19059080) categories drove export value growth.

Limited Exposure to Major Supply Shocks

The volatility analysis indicates generally stable trade flows for key partners. Most major partners had a coefficient of variation (CV) below 0.4, suggesting predictable year-on-year changes. Notable exceptions were some smaller or more volatile markets like Serbia (CV: 0.83 for imports) and Morocco (CV: 0.55 for exports). No systemic price shocks were detected in the primary trade relationships during this period.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU consolidated its position as a global leader in the trade of bakery products under code 190590. The period was defined by spectacular growth in exports, fueled by increasing volumes and, more importantly, by rising unit values that reflect a strategic move up the value chain. This growth was supported by a robust and expanding domestic production base.

The EU's trade structure has become more diversified and resilient. Import sources have multiplied, reducing concentration risk, while export markets have broadened beyond neighboring countries to high-growth regions like North America and Asia-Pacific. Internally, specialization is pronounced, with Mediterranean members demonstrating strong competitive advantages.

Looking at the net trade balance, the EU has decisively shifted to a position of strength, with a surplus that more than doubled. The data indicates a sector that is not only growing but is also evolving in quality and strategic orientation, increasingly focused on value-added products for the global market. This trajectory suggests a resilient and competitive EU bakery industry well-positioned for future global trade.