Market evolution: Waffles and wafers (CN 190532) — 2015–2025

Introduction

Waffles and wafers (CN 190532) are a heading within the broader category of bread, pastry, cakes and biscuits (CN 1905), encompassing five sub-categories ranging from chocolate-coated wafers to salted and high-moisture variants. Over the period 2015–2025, the EU has consolidated its position as a major global supplier of these products, with trade flows growing substantially on both the import and export sides. EU production of waffles and wafers rose from 1.38 billion kg to 2.28 billion kg in quantity (+64.7%) and from €4.01 billion to €8.49 billion in value (+111.6%), underpinning a dramatic expansion in the sector's international footprint. This report examines the main dynamics driving this evolution, from the widening trade surplus to shifting partner geographies and rising unit values.

1. A Sector in Rapid Expansion: The Widening Trade Surplus

EU exports more than doubled in value while maintaining a large and growing surplus

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of waffles and wafers to non-EU countries grew from €699 million to €1.78 billion, an increase of +154.7% in value. Over the same period, export volumes rose from 154,205 tonnes to 270,573 tonnes (+75.5%). The EU's trade surplus consequently widened from €619 million to €1.47 billion (+138.0%), confirming the sector's strong competitive position on global markets. The overall trade trajectory shows uninterrupted growth in export value, with a particularly marked acceleration from 2021 onwards.

Imports grew even faster in relative terms, but remain a fraction of exports

While the EU is and has remained a strong net exporter, imports of waffles and wafers grew substantially—+283.3% in value (from €81 million to €309 million) and +171.2% in volume (from 25,387 to 68,842 tonnes). The net import reliance deepened from −9.7% to −28.1%, meaning the EU's net export position has nearly tripled in proportional terms. The negative sign indicates a persistent and growing export surplus: the EU produces and ships far more than it absorbs from third countries. This deepening reflects both strong demand for EU wafers abroad and the growing competitiveness of the European confectionery industry.

Export propensity and trade intensity both rose sharply

The export propensity of EU production—the share of output shipped to non-EU markets—doubled from 13.4% to 27.0% (+101.4%). Similarly, trade intensity (total extra-EU trade as a share of production) rose from 17.2% to 30.5% (+77.9%). These increases indicate that the waffle and wafer sector became progressively more outward-oriented over the decade, with EU producers increasingly serving global rather than just domestic markets.

2. Shifting Geographies: New Partners, Diversifying Imports, and Concentrated Exports

The United Kingdom and United States anchor EU export growth

The top export partners show a clear hierarchy. The United Kingdom, the EU's largest single export market for waffles and wafers, saw its purchases grow from €122.7 million to €388.7 million (+216.6%). The United States recorded the most spectacular growth: from €46.9 million to €266.4 million (+468.2%), making it the second-largest destination by 2025. Saudi Arabia (+59.3%), Switzerland (+88.6%), Israel (+79.3%), Australia (+74.8%), and China (+255.8%) round out the top seven, collectively reflecting a geographically diversified export base that spans the Middle East, East Asia, Oceania, and North America.

Ukraine emerged as the fastest-growing import source

On the import side, the most striking development was the rise of Ukraine: imports grew from €3.3 million in 2015 to €87.1 million in 2025 (+2,530%), making it the EU's top supplier of waffles and wafers from outside the bloc. This surge accelerated after 2022, likely connected to the EU–Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area and, from mid-2022, the EU's autonomous trade liberalisation measures. Türkiye also grew strongly (+485.7% to €57.7 million), while the United Kingdom—now an extra-EU partner following Brexit—saw its exports to the EU rise from €45.1 million to €104.8 million (+132.4%). Western Balkan partners Bosnia and Herzegovina (+177.9%) and Serbia (+294.8%) also expanded their presence.

Import sources diversified while export markets became slightly more concentrated

The Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value fell from 3,411 to 2,330 (−31.7%), moving from a moderately concentrated market towards a more diversified one. This reflects the entry of Ukraine and Türkiye alongside the continued role of the UK and Western Balkan suppliers. By contrast, export HHI rose modestly from 653 to 868 (+33.0%), indicating a slight increase in destination concentration—driven mainly by the outsized growth of the UK and US markets. Nevertheless, the export HHI remains well below 1,500, indicating a broadly diversified export base.

Within the EU, Italy, Poland, and Belgium dominate exports; Germany and Romania lead import growth

The leading EU exporters to non-EU countries in 2025 were Italy (€549.8 million, +126.1%), Poland (€448.4 million, +266.1%), Germany (€178.4 million, +168.4%), Belgium (€179.4 million, +415.6%), and the Netherlands (€96.2 million, +44.5%). Poland and Belgium in particular saw explosive growth, suggesting significant capacity expansion and/or re-routing of trade flows through these countries. Among importing EU members, Romania (+734.5%) and Poland (+2,310.7%) saw the highest growth rates, while Germany (+302.9%) and Belgium (+1,709.4%) also recorded strong increases. Ireland remained the largest single importing EU member at €37.2 million.

3. Rising Prices, Structural Shifts, and a Shock in Bosnia

Unit values increased markedly on both sides of the trade

Between 2015 and 2025, the average export price rose from €4,534 to €6,583 per tonne (+45.2%), while the average import price increased from €3,174 to €4,487 per tonne (+41.4%). The persistent price gap—EU exports command roughly €2,000/t more than imports—reflects the higher-value composition of EU shipments (notably chocolate-coated wafers) and the premium positioning of European brands. The steepening of export prices from 2021 onwards likely reflects input cost inflation (cocoa, energy, packaging) transmitted through global commodity markets, as well as a shift towards higher-value product mixes.

Chocolate-coated wafers dominate in value; plain wafers lead in volume

The product segment breakdown reveals clear structural differences across sub-categories:

Chocolate-coated wafers (19053211) commanded the highest unit export price at €8,114/t in 2025—nearly double that of high-moisture waffles—and grew in value from €361 million to €872 million (+141.5%). Plain wafers (19053299) remain the largest segment by volume but grew more modestly in price. On the import side, chocolate-coated wafers (19053211) also led in value at €142.7 million in 2025, having grown from €37.6 million (+279.4%), while plain wafers (19053299) reached €95.0 million from €21.1 million (+351.1%).

A supply shock was detected in imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina

The volatility analysis identifies Ukraine as the most volatile import source (coefficient of variation 0.72), consistent with the dramatic and uneven growth trajectory described above. Tunisia (0.74), Norway (0.52), and Russia (0.48) also showed high import volatility. On the export side, China (0.45) and the United States (0.42) were the most volatile destinations, reflecting the higher uncertainty of more distant markets. The most notable supply shock detected was a price spike in imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2023, with an abnormality score of 4.6 and a +40.5% price shift, accounting for 6.1% of import value that year. This may reflect cost pressures in Bosnian production or a compositional shift towards higher-value products.

Conclusion

Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU waffles and wafers sector underwent a remarkable transformation. The EU consolidated its role as the world's leading exporter, with export value more than doubling to €1.78 billion and the trade surplus widening to €1.47 billion. This expansion was driven by a combination of strong production growth (+64.7% in volume), rising unit values (+45.2% in export prices), and successful market diversification—particularly into the United States and the United Kingdom. At the same time, imports tripled in value, with Ukraine emerging as the dominant non-EU supplier, and the EU import base becoming more geographically diversified. The sector's growing export propensity (from 13.4% to 27.0% of production) and deepening net export position point to an industry that is increasingly competitive on global markets and structurally resilient, even as rising input costs and occasional supply shocks introduce volatility into specific trade corridors.