Market evolution: Savoury snacks (CN 19059055) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of extruded or expanded savoury or salted products (customs code 19059055) at the European Union level over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers a wide range of snack foods — including products such as salted crackers, pretzels, extruded corn snacks, puffed snacks, and savoury biscuits — that fall outside the more narrowly defined codes for crispbread, rusks, toasted bread, sweet biscuits, and waffles. The period under review is notably marked by several macro-shocks — including Brexit (2020), the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2021), and the consequences of the Russia–Ukraine conflict (2022–2023) — each of which left identifiable traces on the trade flows examined here.

The data reveals a market that expanded substantially across all key metrics, with the EU reinforcing its position as a net exporter. Total trade flows grew on both the export and import sides, but the growth trajectory was uneven across partners and EU member states. Below, we organise the analysis around three main findings.

1. A Decade of Expansion: The EU Trade Surplus Widens on Higher Volumes and Rising Unit Values

Exports grew significantly faster than imports in volume terms

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of savoury snacks rose from €425.8 million to €668.6 million (+57.0%), while imports increased from €136.5 million to €245.4 million (+79.8%). In volume terms, however, exports grew by 44.6% (from 103,023 tonnes to 148,941 tonnes) versus only 27.8% for imports (from 44,402 tonnes to 56,744 tonnes). The EU's trade balance consequently widened from €289.3 million to €423.2 million (full trade overview).

Import prices rose nearly five times faster than export prices

A striking feature of the decade is the divergence in unit-value trends. Export prices edged up by just 8.6% over the full period, suggesting that EU exporters maintained competitive pricing. Import prices, by contrast, surged by 40.7%, driven partly by rising sourcing costs from Asian and Balkan suppliers and partly by inflationary pressures post-2021. The gap between the EU's export unit value (€4,489/t) and its import unit value (€4,325/t) narrowed considerably, suggesting that imported products are moving up the value chain or that supply-side cost pressures have been passed through.

The EU's net-exporter position strengthened

The net import reliance indicator — which is negative when the EU is a net exporter — moved from −13.3% in 2015 to −20.7% in 2025, reaching a trough of −33.1% at some point during the period. This confirms a structural trend: the EU is not only self-sufficient in this product category but has increasingly oriented production towards third-country markets. Export propensity (exports as a share of domestic production) rose from 16.6% to 25.1%, and trade intensity increased from 20.5% to 30.7%, pointing to a more globally integrated market.

2. Geographic Rebalancing: Brexit, the Russia Shock, and the Rise of New Partnerships

The United Kingdom remains the dominant partner, but its share has eroded

The UK is by far the EU's largest trade partner for savoury snacks, absorbing €247.9 million of EU exports in 2025 (+20.9% vs 2015) and supplying €101.0 million of EU imports (+55.3%). While these figures are still dominant, the UK's share of total EU exports to non-EU countries has fallen, as faster-growing destinations — notably the United States (+242.7%), Switzerland (+148.5%), and Norway (+130.3%) — captured larger incremental volumes. On the import side, the UK's share has remained relatively stable, though its growth rate (+55.3%) lagged behind several emerging suppliers.

Russia: a dramatic collapse in exports

The most visible geopolitical shock in the data concerns exports to Russia. EU exports to the Russian Federation fell from €24.8 million in 2015 to €11.8 million in 2025 (−52.2%), with a pronounced price shock of +169.6% detected in 2023 — likely reflecting trade disruptions, sanctions effects, and the rerouting of supply chains following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The volatility coefficient for exports to Russia is the highest among all partners (CV = 0.69), confirming an unstable and shrinking market.

Asian and Balkan suppliers are gaining ground on the import side

Among import partners, the fastest growth came from Türkiye (+206.6%), North Macedonia (+174.1%), Thailand (+134.1%), and China (+108.2%). These four countries collectively expanded their share of EU imports from €35.0 million to €84.7 million over the decade. This reflects both the competitive cost structures of these producers and, in the case of the Western Balkans, the trade-facilitating effects of EU association and Stabilisation and Association Agreements.

Switzerland is the only top partner showing a significant decline on the import side (−54.5%), likely reflecting a combination of Swiss franc appreciation effects and shifting production patterns.

The EU's export geography has diversified considerably

The concentration index (HHI) for EU exports fell from 2,540 to 1,583 (−37.7%), indicating a marked diversification of destination markets. The fastest-growing export destinations were the United States (+242.7%), Switzerland (+148.5%), and Norway (+130.3%). Meanwhile, exports to Saudi Arabia declined by 39.7%, suggesting some Middle Eastern markets may have been lost to local or Asian competition.

The Netherlands and Ireland are the main EU entry points for imports

Looking at which EU member states handle the most imports, the Netherlands (€74.4M, +138.2%) and Ireland (€75.2M, +69.0%) top the list in 2025. Italy saw the most dramatic growth (+307.7%), while France's import intake actually declined (−40.1%). On the export side, Belgium remains the largest exporter (€202.8M) despite a decline of 16.0%, while Poland surged from €57.3M to €201.9M (+252.1%) and Spain from €11.8M to €56.4M (+378.2%). The shifts among EU exporters reflect the broader competitive repositioning of Central and Eastern European food industries.

3. Production Doubled and Export Specialisation Shifted Eastward

EU domestic production more than doubled over the decade

According to PRODCOM data, EU production of savoury extruded or expanded products grew from 387.9 million kg to 820.3 million kg (+111.5%) in volume, and from €1.14 billion to €2.70 billion (+136.6%) in value. This extraordinary growth — outpacing both export and import expansion — points to a structural increase in both domestic consumption and productive capacity. The production value growth exceeding volume growth indicates a shift towards higher-value products or general inflationary effects.

Belgium and Poland dominate export specialisation, but the map is shifting

The specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that Belgium has the highest Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA = 0.563), followed by Poland (RSCA = 0.455). Belgium accounts for 30.3% of EU production but only 8.5% of total EU trade, indicating it is a major production hub that both supplies the internal market and exports externally. Poland, with an RSCA of 0.455 and a production share of 17.7%, has emerged as the EU's second most specialised exporter — consistent with its dramatic trade growth noted above. Other specialised producers include Latvia, Austria, and Greece.

Export concentration fell, reflecting a broader set of competitive producers

The decline in export concentration (HHI) from 2,540 to 1,583 is mirrored on the import side (from 2,555 to 2,089, −18.2%). Both suggest that the EU's trade in this product category has become less dependent on a small number of dominant partners or corridors. This diversification reduces systemic supply risk but may also reflect fragmentation of buyer preferences and the proliferation of niche brands.

Some EU members remain almost entirely import-dependent

At the other end of the specialisation spectrum, Cyprus (RSCA = −0.999), Finland (−0.989), and Ireland (−0.985) show negligible or zero domestic production of savoury snacks and rely almost entirely on imports — whether from other EU members or from third countries. Ireland's paradoxically high import value (€75.2M) combined with near-zero export specialisation may partly reflect the role of its ports as entry points for UK-origin products destined for wider EU distribution.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU market for savoury extruded and expanded snacks evolved from a moderately growing sector into a significantly larger and more globally connected industry. The key dynamics can be summarised as follows:

1. Strong expansion across all metrics. EU trade volumes, values, and domestic production all roughly doubled. The EU consolidated its net-exporter position, with the trade surplus rising to €423 million by 2025.

2. Geographic diversification amid geopolitical shocks. Brexit did not sever the UK–EU snack trade corridor but did coincide with diversification of both sourcing and destination markets. The Russia–Ukraine conflict caused a sharp and likely irreversible drop in exports to Russia. Meanwhile, Asian and Balkan suppliers gained import market share, and the US and EFTA countries emerged as fast-growing export destinations.

3. Structural shifts within the EU. Poland and Spain dramatically increased their export roles, while Belgium's dominance, though still significant, has eroded somewhat in relative terms. The doubling of domestic production suggests that the industry has invested heavily in capacity, likely driven by growing consumer demand for savoury snack products across Europe and the increasing export orientation of EU manufacturers.

Looking ahead, the key risks and opportunities for this market include the evolution of EU–UK trade arrangements, the competitive pressure from low-cost Asian producers, potential supply-chain disruptions linked to geopolitical instability, and the growing consumer demand for premium and health-positioned snack products that could further drive the value growth observed in recent years.