Market evolution: Sweet biscuits (CN 19053199) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the trade dynamics of the European Union in sweet biscuits (customs code 19053199) over the period 2015 to 2025. The product encompasses a specific category of biscuits that are not coated in chocolate and contain less than 8% milk fats. The analysis is based on annual trade data between the EU and non-EU countries, focusing on value, quantity, and price trends, as well as shifts in market partners and structural indicators. The EU has demonstrated a robust and expanding role in the global sweet biscuit market over this decade.

1. A Decade of Sustained Growth and Deepening Trade Surplus

The EU's sweet biscuit sector has experienced a pronounced and consistent expansion in its external trade over the ten-year period. The Union has significantly strengthened its position as a net exporter, with the trade surplus more than doubling.

Exports Outpaced Imports in Value Growth

The value of EU exports grew by 90.8%, rising from €447.1 million in 2015 to €853.1 million in 2025. This increase significantly outpaced the 48.9% growth in imports, which rose from €139.6 million to €207.9 million over the same period. Consequently, the trade balance shifted from a surplus of €307.5 million in 2015 to a surplus of €645.2 million in 2025, a 109.9% increase.

Price Increases Contributed to Value Growth

The rise in trade values was driven by both higher volumes and increased unit prices. Export volumes grew by 32.5% (to 231,106 tonnes), while export unit prices rose by 44.0% (to €3,691 per tonne). For imports, the volume increase was 27.8% (to 74,896 tonnes), and the price rise was 16.5% (to €2,776 per tonne). The stronger price growth on the export side amplified the value gain.

2. Diversifying Partnerships and Competitive Export Leadership

The geographical landscape of the EU's sweet biscuit trade evolved, with a clear concentration on key high-value markets for exports and a diversifying base for imports. Internal production specialisation varies significantly across member states.

The UK, US, and Australia Anchor Export Growth

The United Kingdom remained the largest single export destination, with a 75.7% value increase to €234.2 million. The most dramatic growth, however, was seen in exports to the United States (+108.6%) and Australia (+83.7%). The following table details the EU's top export partners:

Import Sources Diversify Away from the UK

While the United Kingdom remained the top import source (€84.1 million), its share in the EU's import basket diminished. This is reflected in a 33.3% decrease in the concentration index (HHI) for imports, from 3173 to 2115. Notable growth was seen from Ukraine (+490.8%) and several Western Balkan states like Serbia (+232.6%).

Internal Production and Specialisation Fuel Export Capacity

EU production quantity grew by 38.3% to 1.76 billion kilograms, while production value increased by 78.8% to €5.92 billion. Specialisation data for 2025 shows that Latvia (RSCA: 0.65), Poland (RSCA: 0.30), and Belgium (RSCA: 0.27) have the highest revealed comparative advantage in sweet biscuit production within the EU.

3. Market Resilience and Strengthened Export-Oriented Profile

Volatility in trade flows was relatively contained, with the EU demonstrating a high degree of market self-sufficiency that intensified over the period. The sector's orientation shifted decisively towards external markets.

Trade Flows Show Low Volatility with Minor Shocks

The coefficient of variation for the major export partners was generally low, indicating stable relationships. The UK export channel (CV: 0.06) was the most stable. Two notable price shocks were detected: a 60.7% price spike in exports to Türkiye in 2022 and a 20.2% spike in exports to Ukraine in 2023, though their value shares were modest (2.2% and 1.1%, respectively).

The EU Transitioned to a Strong Net Export Position

The EU's net import reliance became significantly more negative, moving from -6.8% in 2015 to -23.5% in 2025. This indicates a deepening export surplus relative to the size of the domestic market. This structural shift is further confirmed by a surge in the export propensity, which grew by 159.0% to 24.0%, meaning that nearly a quarter of the EU's sweet biscuit production is now destined for non-EU markets.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU sweet biscuit market (CN 19053199) matured into a highly competitive and export-oriented industry. Characterised by strong value growth in exports, a diversifying import base, and increasing production, the sector substantially improved its trade balance. The EU solidified its role as a major global supplier, with its export propensity and self-sufficiency metrics strengthening markedly over the decade, showcasing a resilient and expanding sector within the European food industry.