Market evolution: Pasta (CN 1902) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in pasta products (Combined Nomenclature code 1902) over the period 2015–2025. The product scope covers a broad range of items — from uncooked spaghetti and macaroni to stuffed ravioli, prepared dishes, and couscous. The European Union has long been the world's largest producer and exporter of pasta, with Italy at its centre, and the period under review confirms this position while revealing significant structural shifts. Three dynamics stand out: a sustained acceleration in trade values, driven by both volume growth and rising unit prices; a marked diversification of the EU's import sources, with Asian suppliers gaining ground rapidly; and a period of price turbulence in 2022 linked to broader macroeconomic shocks. The full overview data underpin these observations.

1. A Decade of Accelerating Trade Volumes and Values

EU exports grew faster in value than in volume, signalling a structural price uplift

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of pasta to non-EU countries rose from €1.44 billion to €2.66 billion in value (+84.5%), while export volumes increased from 1.12 million tonnes to 1.54 million tonnes (+37.9%). The gap between these two growth rates points to a significant rise in export unit prices, which climbed from €1,292/t to €1,730/t (+33.8%). This pattern — value outpacing quantity — accelerated markedly after 2020, with export prices peaking at €1,863/t in 2022 before moderating slightly. The trade overview shows this trend was not smooth but concentrated in distinct waves.

Imports grew even more dynamically, narrowing the relative trade surplus

EU imports nearly tripled in value over the decade, rising from €398 million to €1.05 billion (+162.7%), while import volumes doubled from 226,000 tonnes to 443,000 tonnes (+96.0%). The EU thus remained a strong net exporter — the trade balance stood at €1.62 billion in 2025, up from €1.05 billion in 2015 (+54.8%) — but the faster import growth signal reflects rising demand for Asian noodles and couscous within the EU, as well as price inflation across the category. The net import reliance remained negative (indicating a surplus), hovering between -10.3% and -17.7%, with the 2025 figure at -12.0%.

Rising production underpinned the expansion of trade

EU domestic production volumes grew from 5.54 billion kg to 8.13 billion kg (+46.8%) over the period, while production values surged from €5.85 billion to €15.47 billion (+164.5%). This implies that the unit value of domestic pasta production more than doubled, reflecting both inflation and a shift towards higher-value product segments such as stuffed and prepared pasta. The export propensity — the share of domestic output exported — rose from 11.9% to 17.7%, confirming the EU's increasing orientation towards external markets.

2. Geographical Shifts: Asia's Rising Role and the Consolidation of Key Partnerships

Asian suppliers have become the primary drivers of EU import growth

The most striking geographical shift on the import side has been the rise of Asian suppliers. South Korea's exports to the EU surged by +835.8% in value (from €21 million to €193 million), while China's rose by +231.1% (from €61 million to €203 million) and Vietnam's by +196.5% (from €42 million to €124 million). Thailand, already a significant supplier in 2015 at €73 million, grew to €132 million (+80.0%). These four Asian partners collectively accounted for the bulk of the EU's import growth, reflecting the rising popularity of Asian-style noodles and instant pasta products within European markets. The partner data confirms this structural reorientation.

EU exports remained concentrated around a small group of high-income markets

On the export side, the United Kingdom remained the EU's largest single destination, growing from €462 million to €816 million (+76.8%), despite the disruption caused by Brexit. The United States saw the most dramatic increase among major partners, with EU pasta exports surging from €281 million to €696 million (+147.5%). Other Anglophone and high-income markets — Canada (+124.2%), Australia (+107.6%), and Switzerland (+63.4%) — also posted strong growth. Japan, while still significant at €93 million, grew more modestly (+13.0%). The export partner data shows that these seven partners accounted for the overwhelming share of external EU pasta demand.

Italy dominated both production and exports, with a growing share of EU output

The specialisation data for 2025 reveals Italy's overwhelming role: with a Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) of 5.85 and a production share of 46.9% of total EU pasta output, Italy was by far the most specialised member state. Italian exports grew from €1.12 billion to €2.01 billion (+80.1%), maintaining a roughly constant share of total EU exports. Other member states with notable export growth included Ireland (+477.6%, from €12 million to €70 million), Germany (+124.8%), and Belgium (+107.9%). On the import side, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing EU importer (+356.0%), reflecting its role as a logistics hub, while Italy itself more than doubled its imports (+174.3%).

3. Price Turbulence, Volatility, and the 2022 Supply Shock

Unit prices surged across all segments in 2022 before partially correcting

A common feature across both imports and exports — and across most product sub-segments — was a sharp price increase in 2022, followed by a partial correction in 2023–2025. This pattern is consistent with the energy price spike, grain market disruption, and broader inflationary pressures that followed Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. The average EU import price rose from €2,198/t in 2020 to a peak of €2,567/t in 2022, then fell back to €2,360/t in 2025. Export prices followed a similar arc, rising from €1,283/t (2020) to €1,863/t (2022) before settling at €1,730/t (2025). The product segment breakdown allows us to see this at a finer level.

Certain trade corridors exhibited extreme volatility and price shocks

The volatility analysis reveals that not all partners behaved similarly. Among EU import sources, South Korea (coefficient of variation 0.61) and Serbia (0.71) displayed the highest price volatility, suggesting episodic or contract-dependent trade flows. Among export destinations, Ukraine (0.41) and Saudi Arabia (0.40) were the most volatile. The shock detection identified three notable events centred on 2022:

• Exports to South Africa: a price abnormality of 775.4 (the highest detected), with export prices jumping +52.9% in a single year.
• Imports from Türkiye: a price abnormality of 55.4, with import prices surging +64.3% — likely linked to the lira's depreciation and rising energy costs.
• Imports from Morocco: a more moderate abnormality of 22.4, with prices rising +22.1%.

These shocks are consistent with the broader macroeconomic disruptions of 2022 and suggest that while the EU's pasta trade proved resilient in volume terms, prices were highly sensitive to external supply-side pressures.

Market concentration remained moderate on imports but increased on exports

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value remained relatively stable, moving from 1,181 to 1,172 (-0.7%) — indicating a broadly diversified import base. However, the export HHI rose from 1,536 to 1,729 (+12.6%), pointing to increasing concentration towards a smaller number of key destinations. This likely reflects the outsized growth of the UK and US markets, which together absorbed a growing share of EU pasta exports. The import concentration by volume showed a slight increase (+3.4%), while export concentration by volume rose more meaningfully (+14.3%), reinforcing the picture of a narrowing export base in volume terms.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's pasta trade expanded substantially in both directions, with the trade surplus widening from €1.05 billion to €1.62 billion. The growth was not merely volumetric: unit prices increased by roughly one-third on both the export and import sides, with a pronounced spike in 2022 linked to the energy and grain market disruptions of that year. Geographically, the most notable shift has been the rapid rise of Asian suppliers — particularly South Korea, China, and Vietnam — on the EU import side, while EU exports have remained anchored in high-income Western markets led by the United Kingdom and the United States. Italy's dominance of EU production and export continued unabated, with its RCA at 5.85 in 2025. Looking ahead, the structural trends of rising trade intensity (+62.7% over the decade) and export propensity (+48.2%) suggest that the EU's pasta sector will remain deeply integrated into global markets, though the increasing concentration of export destinations warrants monitoring for potential vulnerability.