Market evolution: Dry pasta (CN 190219) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's trade in uncooked pasta not containing eggs (CN 190219) over the period from 2015 to 2025. The analysis reveals a period of robust growth for the EU's dry pasta sector, characterised by a significant expansion in export volumes and values, coupled with a strengthening trade surplus. The EU has solidified its position as a major global supplier, with trade dynamics influenced by key partnerships, post-pandemic recovery, and the macroeconomic shocks of the early 2020s. The following sections detail the main trends in trade volumes, pricing, market concentration, and strategic vulnerabilities.

1. Sustained Export-Led Growth and an Expanding Trade Surplus

The EU's dry pasta market experienced substantial growth over the decade, driven overwhelmingly by exports. The trade balance widened significantly, underscoring the bloc's competitive advantage and the global appetite for European pasta.

The EU solidified its position as a major net exporter

Throughout the period, the EU maintained a strong positive trade balance in dry pasta, consistently exporting far more than it imported. The net trade balance in value terms grew from approximately €905 million in 2015 to €1.62 billion in 2025, an increase of 78.6%. This sustained surplus highlights the EU's role as a key supplier to global markets.

Export growth outpaced import growth in both value and volume

EU exports of dry pasta saw impressive growth, with the total value rising 82.1% from €960 million in 2015 to €1.75 billion in 2025. Export volumes increased by 41.1% (from 897,494 to 1,266,254 tonnes) over the same period. In contrast, while imports also grew, they did so from a much smaller base, with their value increasing 141.0% (to €131 million) and quantity rising 73.5% (to 74,421 tonnes).

Key export partners saw differentiated growth trajectories

The United States emerged as the most dynamic major export partner, with its import value from the EU surging by 155.2% to €509 million. Traditional partners like the United Kingdom and Switzerland also showed strong growth (60.9% and 84.5%, respectively), while more distant markets like Canada (149.6%) and Australia (92.7%) became increasingly important.

2. Price Inflation, Volatility, and the Impact of External Shocks

Price dynamics were a defining feature of the 2015-2025 period, with both EU export and import unit values rising significantly. This trend was punctuated by notable price shocks, particularly in 2022, reflecting broader global economic disruptions.

Unit values for both exports and imports trended upwards

The average export price increased by 29.1% over the period, rising from €1,069 per tonne to €1,380 per tonne. Import prices rose even more sharply, by 38.9% to €1,760 per tonne. This general price inflation accelerated post-2020, with a significant jump recorded in 2022.

The 2022 energy crisis triggered pronounced price shocks in key markets

An analysis of supply shocks identifies 2022 as a year of significant price disruption. Exports to the United States experienced a major price shock, with an abnormality score of 71.5 and a price shift of 42.4%. A similar, though less pronounced, price shock was observed in exports to South Africa. These events are consistent with the impact of the 2022 global energy crisis on production and logistics costs, which was then passed on to major importing partners.

Import volatility varied widely by source country

The volatility of import flows differed considerably among the EU's suppliers. Imports from Türkiye and the United Kingdom were relatively stable (CV of 0.08). In contrast, supplies from countries like South Korea and Ukraine were highly volatile (CV of 1.01 and 1.10, respectively), indicating a greater sensitivity to country-specific or geopolitical factors for those sources.

3. Structural Shifts in Production, Specialisation, and Trade Concentration

Underlying the trade figures were structural shifts within the EU. Domestic production expanded, Italy reinforced its dominance in exports, and the pattern of trade concentration evolved for both inflows and outflows.

EU domestic production volumes and values grew substantially

EU production of dry pasta increased by 66.4% in volume (from 2.88 to 4.80 million kg) and 223.1% in value (from €2.04 to €6.60 billion) from 2015 to 2025. This rise in production capacity likely underpinned the parallel growth in exports.

Italy is the overwhelmingly dominant EU exporter, with a high degree of specialisation

The data on specialisation clearly shows Italy's unrivalled position. In 2025, Italy held an RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage) of 8.54, far ahead of other EU members. Italy's production accounted for 68.4% of the EU's total for this product category. Other EU members like Greece (RCA 3.08) and Latvia (RCA 3.98) also showed notable specialisation, but on a much smaller scale.

Import sources diversified while export concentration slightly increased

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports in value terms fell by 11.9% (from 1,456 to 1,282), indicating that the EU's import sources became slightly more diversified. Conversely, the HHI for exports rose by 23.3% (from 1,128 to 1,391), suggesting a modest increase in the concentration of export destinations, potentially due to the rapidly growing share taken by the United States.

Conclusion

The EU dry pasta market (CN 190219) demonstrated robust health and expansion between 2015 and 2025, driven by a strong increase in export performance. The bloc significantly strengthened its trade surplus, supported by rising domestic production and the dominant, specialised exporting capacity of Italy. The period was also marked by significant price inflation, which culminated in pronounced supply shocks in 2022, likely linked to the global energy crisis. While the EU's import sources became more diversified, its export flows showed a slight increase in concentration towards key partners like the United States. Overall, the sector proved resilient, adapting to macroeconomic challenges while capitalising on strong global demand, particularly from North American and other established markets.