Market evolution: Prepared pasta (CN 190230) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the evolution of European Union trade in prepared pasta (excluding stuffed pasta), classified under customs code 190230, over the period from 2015 to 2025. The analysis is based on trade data covering flows between the EU and non-EU countries. The market has undergone significant expansion in both value and volume, characterized by divergent growth trajectories for imports and exports, a pronounced shift in trade geography, and notable changes in pricing and market concentration. The following sections detail and interpret these core dynamics.
I. Sustained growth anchored in a widening trade deficit
Over the 2015–2025 period, EU prepared pasta trade experienced robust expansion. However, import growth substantially outpaced export growth, leading to a deepening of the EU's trade deficit in this product category.
The scale of market expansion across key metrics
The value of total EU trade (imports + exports) in prepared pasta more than tripled over the decade. Imports surged by 193.3% in value, from €234.0 million to €686.3 million. Exports also grew substantially, increasing by 209.4% in value from €117.9 million to €364.7 million. In volume, imports more than doubled (+119.9%), reaching 282,102 tonnes, while exports grew by 95.4% to 117,358 tonnes. This expansion reflects increased integration of the EU into global pasta supply chains, both as a sourcing destination and as a processing hub.
| Metric | Imports (2015) | Imports (2025) | Change | Exports (2015) | Exports (2025) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Value (EUR million) | 234.0 | 686.3 | +193.3% | 117.9 | 364.7 | +209.4% |
| Volume (tonnes) | 128,294 | 282,102 | +119.9% | 60,071 | 117,358 | +95.4% |
| Unit Price (EUR/tonne) | 1,824 | 2,433 | +33.4% | 1,962 | 3,107 | +58.4% |
A structural trade deficit that has expanded significantly
The EU has been a consistent net importer of prepared pasta throughout the period. The trade deficit (in EUR) widened dramatically, from -€116.1 million in 2015 to -€321.6 million in 2025. This represents a 177% increase in the deficit. The net import reliance metric, which measures the net import volume as a share of apparent consumption, jumped from 3.4% to 20.0%. This indicates a fundamental shift: the EU market has become significantly more dependent on external suppliers to meet its consumption needs.
II. A geographic reorientation of trade flows and rising market concentration
The period witnessed a dramatic reorientation of trade partners, particularly on the import side, and a corresponding change in the concentration of export markets.
Asian suppliers dominate import growth
While the EU sources prepared pasta from a variety of partners, growth has been overwhelmingly driven by a group of Asian countries. The most striking growth occurred in imports from the Republic of Korea, which exploded by 757.2% in value, rising from €17.6 million to €151.0 million. Other major Asian suppliers also saw very strong gains: China (+213.1%), Vietnam (+164.8%), and Thailand (+118.6%). This points to the growing competitiveness and cost advantages of Asian manufacturers in the prepared pasta segment. Traditional European partners like Switzerland and the United Kingdom saw more modest growth.
| Top Import Partners | Value 2015 (EUR million) | Value 2025 (EUR million) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Korea, Republic of | 17.6 | 151.0 | +757.2% |
| China | 45.6 | 142.8 | +213.1% |
| Thailand | 49.5 | 108.2 | +118.6% |
| Viet Nam | 29.3 | 77.7 | +164.8% |
| United Kingdom | 22.5 | 28.0 | +24.6% |
Export growth concentrated in the United Kingdom and traditional markets
EU exports grew significantly but became more geographically concentrated. The United Kingdom was the single most important driver, with import values from the EU surging by 445.9% to €199.6 million. This likely reflects post-Brexit trade dynamics and the UK's status as a major consumer market outside the EU's single market. The United States and Switzerland also remain key destinations, with solid growth. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports for value rose sharply from 1,999 to 3,568, confirming this move toward higher concentration.
| Top Export Partners | Value 2015 (EUR million) | Value 2025 (EUR million) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | 36.6 | 199.6 | +445.9% |
| United States | 34.4 | 79.1 | +130.0% |
| Switzerland | 12.5 | 29.9 | +139.3% |
| Norway | 7.7 | 14.3 | +85.6% |
| Canada | 3.4 | 4.6 | +35.7% |
The Netherlands and Germany are leading importers; Italy remains the top exporter
Among EU member states, the Netherlands and Germany are the largest importers of prepared pasta from outside the EU. The Netherlands' imports grew by 312.0% to €190.9 million, solidifying its role as a key entry point. Italy, the iconic pasta-producing nation, is by far the largest exporter within the EU, though its share of total EU exports has fluctuated. Other members like Ireland, Hungary, and Lithuania have seen explosive growth in their export activities, indicating the development of new production and processing hubs within the EU.
III. Rising prices and diverging market dynamics between dried and other pasta
Price increases have been a key feature of the decade, with export prices rising faster than import prices. The market for dried, prepared pasta (CN 19023010) has shown distinct dynamics from the broader category.
Export prices rise faster than import prices, indicating value chain shifts
Both import and export unit prices increased over the period, but export prices grew at a markedly faster pace (+58.4%) than import prices (+33.4%). The average export price reached €3,107/tonne in 2025, significantly higher than the import price of €2,433/tonne. This divergence suggests that EU exports may be positioned in higher-value segments (e.g., branded, ready-to-eat, or organic products) compared to the imported goods. The price differential also widened over time, potentially reflecting growing transportation costs, quality differences, or currency effects.
The dried, prepared pasta segment drives volume growth but faces price pressure
A look at the product breakdown reveals that "Dried, prepared pasta (excl. stuffed)" (CN 19023010) is the dominant sub-category by volume for both imports and exports. For instance, in 2025, this sub-category accounted for 218,744 tonnes of EU imports (78% of total) and 22,045 tonnes of exports. However, its import price showed volatility, peaking at €2,789/tonne in 2022 before declining to €2,543/tonne in 2025. In contrast, the other prepared pasta category (CN 19023090) has consistently commanded a higher export price, reaching €2,934/tonne in 2025.
View product segment breakdown
Volatility and specialized trade structures
Trade with some partners has been highly volatile, as indicated by coefficient of variation (CV) scores. For example, imports from Serbia (CV: 0.90) and exports to South Africa (CV: 2.04) have been erratic. Furthermore, specialisation analysis for 2025 shows that Lithuania and Croatia have a very high revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) in this product, indicating strong export specialisation. In contrast, large economies like Germany have a negative RSCA, signifying they are net importers in the prepared pasta segment.
Conclusion
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU market for prepared pasta (CN 190230) underwent substantial growth and transformation. The most defining trend is the widening trade deficit, fueled by explosive import growth from Asian competitors, which has more than quintupled the EU's net import reliance. Concurrently, EU exports have become highly concentrated on the United Kingdom, their single most important market.
Price dynamics have been asymmetric, with exporters capturing higher value gains than importers, suggesting a potential divergence in product mix and market positioning. While the market is expanding, it is becoming more concentrated on the export side and more reliant on external suppliers, particularly from Asia, on the import side. The period was also marked by the strong performance of specific EU member states as emerging export hubs, alongside the continued, though relatively slower, growth of traditional players like Italy. These trends point to an increasingly globalized and competitive landscape for prepared pasta within the EU.