Market evolution: Glass and glassware (CN 70) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in glass and glassware (Combined Nomenclature heading 70) over the 2015–2025 period. The sector, which encompasses a wide range of products from raw materials like cullet and float glass to finished goods like safety glass, containers, and fiberglass, has undergone significant structural shifts. The EU's trade position has evolved, characterized by robust import growth, changing partnership geographies, and rising unit values, all of which point to a sector responding to global competitive pressures and internal demand patterns. Using data from the Trade Dashboard, we examine the key trends in trade value, volume, prices, and partner concentration to understand the market's transformation.

1. From Net Exporter to Balanced Trade: The Erosion of the EU's Surplus

The most striking trend over the decade is the dramatic reduction of the EU's trade surplus in glass and glassware, moving from a position of clear net exporter to near balance. This shift was driven by substantially faster growth in imports compared to exports.

Export growth lagged behind imports. While the EU's exports increased by 8.2% in value, rising from €7.88 billion in 2015 to €8.53 billion in 2025, this performance paled in comparison to imports. Import values surged by 63.3%, from €5.17 billion to €8.44 billion over the same period. Consequently, the EU's trade balance collapsed, shrinking by 96.8% from a surplus of €2.71 billion to a mere €87 million. The net import reliance metric confirms this near-equilibrium, moving from -10.6% (indicating a surplus) to -0.6%.

Volume-price dynamics reveal divergent pressures. The EU managed to increase its export price by 15.9% (from €2,075 to €2,406 per tonne), which helped boost the value of a declining volume of exports (-6.6%). In contrast, import volumes grew robustly by 51.5%, indicating strong domestic absorption of foreign goods, while import prices rose more modestly by 7.8% (from €1,485 to €1,600 per tonne). This suggests the EU's export success has increasingly been value-driven (potentially in higher-specification segments), while it has simultaneously faced competitive pressure on volumes in more commoditized products.

2. Geographic Reorientation: The Rise of China and Turkey, The Fading of Russia

The EU's trade geography in glass and glassware has been substantially redrawn, with a pronounced shift towards suppliers in China and Turkey, and a collapse in trade with Russia.

China and Turkey became dominant and volatile import sources. China's exports to the EU grew by 115.3% to reach €3.63 billion in 2025, making it the largest extra-EU supplier by a significant margin. Turkish exports to the EU more than doubled (+107.4%) to €727 million. This rapid growth has increased the concentration of EU imports, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for value, which rose by 31.7% from 1,671 to 2,200, indicating a less diversified supplier base.

Russian trade collapsed post-2021, while Ukrainian trade surged. Imports from the Russian Federation fell by 77.3% from €80 million in 2015 to €18 million in 2025, a clear consequence of geopolitical disruptions. In contrast, imports from Ukraine grew by 151.5% to €151 million. This dynamic is even more pronounced on the export side: EU exports to Ukraine increased by 233.7% to €170 million, the highest growth rate among major partners, while exports to Russia displayed extreme volatility (coefficient of variation: 0.51) and a clear downward trajectory after 2021.

EU exporters relied on traditional Western partners but found growth in the Balkans. The United Kingdom remained the top destination for EU glass exports, though with a slight value decline (-2.7%). The United States and Switzerland showed solid growth. Notably, Serbia emerged as a high-growth partner, with EU exports increasing by 94.9%, suggesting deepening regional integration.

3. Price Volatility, Shocks, and Internal EU Specialization

The period was marked by significant price volatility, particularly during the 2021-2022 supply chain disruptions, and revealed distinct patterns of specialization among EU member states.

2022 was a year of acute price shocks in specific trade corridors. The data detects several abnormal price shifts centered on 2022. EU exports to Serbia saw a 29.9% price surge. More dramatically, imports from Egypt experienced a 34.7% price hike. These events, likely linked to global energy cost inflation and logistics bottlenecks, underline the vulnerability of certain trade flows to exogenous shocks.

EU member states show clear specialization divides. An analysis of export specialization in 2025 reveals a core-periphery pattern. Smaller and Eastern member states like Croatia (RSCA: 0.517), Bulgaria (0.475), and Portugal (0.377) exhibit strong comparative advantage in this sector. In contrast, larger economies with different industrial focuses, such as Ireland (RSCA: -0.865), Cyprus (-0.859), and Sweden (-0.408), are relatively unspecialized. This suggests the EU's glass industry is geographically concentrated.

Production data confirms the sector's resilience and value growth. EU production value in the broader glass sector grew by 54.7% over the period, from €27.4 billion to €42.4 billion, significantly outpacing the 6.4% growth in production volume. This mirrors the trade data, highlighting a consistent industry-wide trend of moving towards higher-value-added products and facing cost inflation.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's glass and glassware market underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc's historical trade surplus has nearly vanished, eroded by a surge in imports—primarily from China and Turkey—that outpaced its own export growth. This shift occurred alongside a geographic pivot away from Russia and towards Ukraine, and heightened price volatility, especially during the post-pandemic supply shock of 2022. Domestically, the industry has responded with a strong focus on value over volume, as seen in rising production values and export unit prices, while showing distinct patterns of regional specialization within the EU. Overall, the data paints a picture of an industry deeply integrated into global trade, successfully climbing the value chain but simultaneously facing intensified competitive pressure on its traditional product base.