Market evolution: Precious metals and stones (CN 71) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade performance of the European Union in commodities covered by Combined Nomenclature (CN) chapter 71 from 2015 to 2025. The category encompasses a wide range of high-value goods, including natural and cultured pearls, precious and semi-precious stones, precious metals, jewellery, imitation jewellery, and coin. Over the period, the EU's trade in this sector underwent a significant structural transformation. The bloc evolved from a state of near balance to a position of substantial net exporter, driven primarily by soaring export values and a sharp increase in unit prices. This shift occurred alongside increased trade concentration with key partners, a surge in domestic production, and notable volatility in specific bilateral trade relationships.

1. The Great Rebalancing: From Trade Equilibrium to Dominant Net Exporter

The most striking dynamic over the decade is the fundamental shift in the EU's trade balance for precious metals and stones. The Union transitioned from a negligible trade deficit in 2015 to a commanding net export surplus by 2025.

1.1 Exports Surged in Value Despite Falling Volumes

EU exports of CN 71 goods grew from €38.96 billion in 2015 to €69.60 billion in 2025, a 78.6% increase. However, this growth was entirely price-driven. The physical quantity exported plummeted by 67.1%, from 144,954 tonnes to just 47,690 tonnes. Consequently, the average export price per tonne skyrocketed by 447.5%, indicating a decisive shift towards exporting far fewer, but much more valuable, items.

1.2 Imports Grew More Moderately

Total imports increased by a more modest 36.9%, from €38.50 billion to €52.70 billion. Import volumes followed an erratic path, peaking in 2022 before settling at 120,056 tonnes in 2025—13.3% above the 2015 level. The average import price per tonne rose by 21.8%, a fraction of the export price increase.

1.3 The Result: A Record Trade Surplus

The divergence in export and import price trends transformed the trade balance. From a minor surplus of €0.45 billion in 2015, the EU's surplus expanded to €16.90 billion in 2025. The net import reliance metric confirms this, showing the EU moved from a position of slight dependency to one of strong export orientation.

2. Consolidation of Trade Flows and Market Structure

Alongside the overall rebalancing, the EU's trade became more concentrated, with its partnership network consolidating and its own productive capacity strengthening significantly.

2.1 Increased Concentration on Key Partners

Trade concentration, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), rose for both exports and imports. The HHI for export value increased by 48.5%, indicating that EU exporters relied on a smaller set of destination markets in 2025 than in 2015. A similar, though less pronounced, consolidation occurred in imports (+55.2%). Switzerland is the dominant partner, being the primary source of imports and the main destination for exports, which inherently increases concentration risk.

2.2 Regional Specialisation Within the EU

Specialisation within the EU is uneven. In 2025, Estonia, Italy, Austria, France, and Belgium were the most specialised in CN 71 products, showing high Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA). This reflects established centres of excellence in jewellery (Italy, France) and gem trading (Belgium). Conversely, countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and Finland exhibited strong comparative disadvantage in this sector.

2.3 A Dramatic Expansion of Domestic Production

EU production in this sector expanded massively. The production value grew by 319.1% from €8.56 billion to €35.89 billion, while production quantity in kilograms increased by 401.7%. This substantial growth in domestic output likely underpins the ability of EU firms to meet both internal demand and the rising demand for high-value exports, reducing reliance on imported finished goods.

3. Volatility, Shocks, and Evolving Vulnerabilities

The period was characterised by significant volatility in specific bilateral relationships and notable supply shocks, which tested the resilience of the EU's trade network.

3.1 Highly Volatile Partnerships

Volatility analysis reveals starkly different risk profiles among partners. For imports, flows with Peru, Japan, and Mexico were extremely unstable (Coefficients of Variation >0.9). For exports, partnerships with the United Kingdom, the Philippines, and Colombia were similarly volatile. This volatility often stems from the trade in specific, non-standardised sub-products or irregular large shipments of gemstones and scrap metal.

3.2 Identified Supply Shocks

The data identifies several acute price and value shocks:

• Imports from Mexico (2020): A massive price spike with a 3668% abnormality score.
• Exports to the Philippines (2022): An extreme price shock with a 1247% abnormality.
• Exports to Colombia (2018): Another severe price-based shock. These isolated events highlight the vulnerability of specific trade lanes to sudden, unpredictable disruptions, possibly linked to sanctions, customs disputes, or speculative trading in raw materials.

3.3 Strengthening Export Capacity and Reduced Import Dependency

The EU's vulnerability profile improved. The export propensity (exports as a share of domestic production) increased from 112.5% to 166.3%, indicating a growing orientation towards international markets. Combined with the surge in production and the swing to a large trade surplus, this suggests the EU has successfully strengthened its competitive position and reduced its net external dependency in this high-value sector.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's trade in precious metals and stones underwent a profound transformation. The bloc consolidated its position as a major net exporter, not by shipping more goods, but by specialising in significantly higher-value products. This shift was supported by a dramatic expansion in domestic production. However, this success has come with increased trade concentration, making the EU more reliant on a handful of key partners like Switzerland. While the overall system has proven resilient—evidenced by the growing surplus—the data also reveals pockets of extreme volatility and vulnerability in specific bilateral relationships, underscoring the need for continued monitoring of these high-stakes supply chains.