Market evolution: Ceramic products (CN 69) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in ceramic products (Combined Nomenclature heading 69) over the period 2015–2025. Heading 69 is a broad category encompassing construction ceramics (bricks, tiles, roofing materials), sanitary fixtures, tableware and kitchenware, refractory goods, and various technical and ornamental ceramic articles. The EU has traditionally been a significant net exporter in this sector, with Mediterranean countries—particularly Italy and Spain—playing leading roles in global ceramic markets.
Over the decade under review, EU trade in ceramics underwent significant structural change. While the EU maintained a positive trade balance throughout, the dynamics of exports and imports diverged markedly: export values grew modestly but volumes declined, whereas import values and volumes both expanded substantially. These trends were accompanied by a pronounced post-2020 price shock, shifts in partner geography, and a progressive increase in import concentration. The data reveal a sector whose outward orientation has deepened—rising trade intensity and export propensity—while its import vulnerability has simultaneously increased.
Overview of EU ceramic trade flows
1. Export stagnation by volume contrasts with rising import flows
The EU's ceramic trade balance remained positive throughout 2015–2025, but its magnitude narrowed from €4.81 billion in 2015 to €4.34 billion in 2025—a decline of 9.8%. This erosion occurred not because export values fell (they rose by 17.8%), but because import values grew much faster (by 62.4%). Beneath the headline figures, a more fundamental divergence is visible: EU export volumes contracted sharply while import volumes expanded, pointing to a structural rebalancing of the sector's external orientation.
Export volumes declined by a quarter even as values rose
EU exports of ceramic products fell from 12.3 million tonnes in 2015 to 9.2 million tonnes in 2025—a contraction of 25.2%. Yet export revenues increased from €7.79 billion to €9.18 billion (+17.8%), entirely driven by rising unit values, which climbed from €633 per tonne to €997 per tonne (+57.5%). This combination of falling volumes and rising prices suggests that EU producers increasingly concentrated on higher-value-added segments, while ceding volume-driven market share to lower-cost competitors.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€ billion) | 7.79 | 9.18 | +17.8% |
| Export volume (Mt) | 12.31 | 9.21 | −25.2% |
| Export price (€/t) | 632.87 | 996.84 | +57.5% |
Import volumes surged by nearly three-quarters
EU imports moved in the opposite direction. Volumes grew from 2.38 million tonnes in 2015 to 4.15 million tonnes in 2025 (+74.4%), while import values rose from €2.98 billion to €4.84 billion (+62.4%). Unlike exports, import unit values actually declined slightly—from €1,251 per tonne to €1,165 per tonne (−6.9%)—indicating that volume expansion was the primary driver of rising import bills rather than price inflation. This pattern is consistent with growing penetration by cost-competitive foreign suppliers, especially in standardised product categories.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import value (€ billion) | 2.98 | 4.84 | +62.4% |
| Import volume (Mt) | 2.38 | 4.15 | +74.4% |
| Import price (€/t) | 1,251.39 | 1,165.12 | −6.9% |
Net import reliance shifted from near-balance to deeper export orientation
The EU's net import reliance moved from −7.3% in 2015 to −20.8% in 2025 (where negative values indicate a net exporter position). While this might superficially suggest improved competitiveness, the underlying dynamics are more nuanced. Trade intensity—the ratio of total trade to production value—rose from 24.4% to 45.4%, and export propensity climbed from 16.8% to 35.5%. The EU ceramic sector has become significantly more exposed to international markets on both sides of the ledger, even as the net position remains favourable.
Trade intensity and export propensity
2. A post-2020 price transformation reshaped both export and import unit values
The period 2015–2020 was characterised by relatively stable or declining unit values on the import side and modest growth on the export side. From 2020 onwards, however, a pronounced price acceleration affected nearly every product category in both directions of trade. This shift was driven by a confluence of factors—global supply chain disruptions, surging energy costs (particularly relevant for energy-intensive ceramic firing processes), and broader inflationary pressures. By 2022–2023, peak prices were reached in most segments, followed by partial moderation through 2025.
Import prices for tiles and building materials spiked then partially corrected
The most dramatic import price movements occurred in relatively low-value-added construction ceramics. Ceramic flags and wall tiles (CN 6907) saw import unit values swing from €364 per tonne in 2015 to a peak of €460 in 2022, before settling at €338 in 2025. Ceramic building bricks (CN 6904) followed a steeper trajectory, rising from €70 to €127 per tonne over the period—a near-doubling that persisted through 2025 without significant correction. Roofing tiles and constructional goods (CN 6905) showed a steadier climb from €145 to €242 per tonne.
| Product | 2015 price (€/t) | Peak year | Peak price (€/t) | 2025 price (€/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6907 – Tiles | 364 | 2022 | 460 | 338 |
| 6904 – Building bricks | 70 | 2025 | 128 | 128 |
| 6905 – Roofing/constructional | 145 | 2025 | 242 | 242 |
| 6910 – Sanitary fixtures | 1,523 | 2022 | 2,143 | 1,772 |
| 6911 – Porcelain tableware | 2,355 | 2022 | 3,273 | 2,586 |
| 6912 – Other ceramic tableware | 2,255 | 2022 | 3,056 | 2,510 |
| 6902 – Refractory goods | 1,081 | 2025 | 1,600 | 1,600 |
Export prices for high-value goods accelerated more strongly
On the export side, the most striking price increases occurred in higher-value categories. Sanitary fixtures (CN 6910) saw export unit values climb from €3,248 to €4,841 per tonne (+49.1%). Ceramic articles n.e.s. (CN 6914) nearly doubled from €1,920 to €2,896 per tonne. Refractory goods (CN 6902) rose from €1,161 to €1,902 per tonne (+63.8%). The premium pricing of EU exports relative to imports is particularly visible in sanitary fixtures, where the export price (€4,841/t) exceeds the import price (€1,772/t) by a factor of 2.7, reflecting the higher-end positioning of European producers in this segment.
| Product | 2015 export price (€/t) | 2025 export price (€/t) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6910 – Sanitary fixtures | 3,248 | 4,841 | +49.1% |
| 6914 – Ceramic articles n.e.s. | 1,920 | 2,896 | +50.8% |
| 6902 – Refractory goods | 1,161 | 1,902 | +63.8% |
| 6907 – Tiles | 739 | 693 | −6.2% |
| 6904 – Building bricks | 90 | 235 | +161.1% |
| 6905 – Roofing/constructional | 187 | 319 | +70.6% |
Volume-price divergence reveals structural product mix shifts
The simultaneous decline in export volumes and rise in export prices, alongside the simultaneous rise in import volumes and stability or decline in import prices, points to a product-mix effect. EU producers appear to have progressively exited lower-value, higher-volume segments (where import competition intensified) and concentrated their export efforts on higher-value segments such as sanitary ware, technical ceramics, and premium refractory goods. Meanwhile, the volume growth on the import side was concentrated in tiles and building materials—categories where price competition is fierce and transport costs have historically been a protective factor.
3. China dominates import growth while market concentration rises and supply shocks emerge
The geographic composition of EU ceramic trade underwent significant change over 2015–2025, with import sources becoming more concentrated and export destinations diversifying unevenly. China's role as the dominant import supplier intensified, while several emerging suppliers—particularly India and Türkiye—also expanded rapidly. On the export side, the United States emerged as the EU's largest market, while traditional destinations such as Russia and Saudi Arabia contracted sharply.
China's import share grew to nearly half the total
China was already the EU's largest ceramic import source in 2015, with €1.23 billion in shipments. By 2025, this figure had risen to €2.24 billion—an increase of 82.6%. China's share of total EU ceramic imports thus grew from approximately 41% to approximately 46%, making the EU's import base increasingly dependent on a single supplier. The second-largest source, Türkiye, grew from €318 million to €514 million (+61.5%), while India showed the most dramatic relative expansion: from €64 million to €361 million (+467.5%), driven primarily by growth in tiles and tableware categories.
| Partner | 2015 imports (€M) | 2025 imports (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 1,226 | 2,238 | +82.6% |
| Türkiye | 318 | 514 | +61.5% |
| India | 64 | 361 | +467.5% |
| United Kingdom | 224 | 215 | −4.0% |
| Serbia | 26 | 78 | +199.8% |
| Ukraine | 19 | 61 | +229.1% |
| United Arab Emirates | 65 | 55 | −15.8% |
Import concentration (HHI) increased while export concentration remained moderate
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value rose from 2,047 in 2015 to 2,435 in 2025 (+19.0%), indicating growing supplier concentration. By conventional thresholds, the import market moved from moderate to elevated concentration. By contrast, the export HHI increased only modestly, from 588 to 680 (+15.5%), remaining well below concentration thresholds. EU exports are thus spread across a relatively diverse set of destination markets, whereas imports are increasingly dominated by a small number of suppliers.
| Concentration (HHI) | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports by value | 2,047 | 2,435 | +19.0% |
| Exports by value | 588 | 680 | +15.5% |
The United States became the top export destination while Russia and Saudi Arabia declined
Among export partners, the United States overtook the United Kingdom as the EU's largest market. US-bound exports grew from €1.16 billion to €1.86 billion (+61.0%), reflecting strong demand for European premium ceramics in the American market. In contrast, exports to Russia collapsed from €446 million to €158 million (−64.6%), largely reflecting the impact of sanctions following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Saudi Arabia also saw a steep decline, from €331 million to €169 million (−48.9%). Meanwhile, Israel (+78.8%) and Morocco (+83.4%) emerged as growing destinations.
| Partner | 2015 exports (€M) | 2025 exports (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 1,157 | 1,862 | +61.0% |
| United Kingdom | 1,107 | 999 | −9.8% |
| Switzerland | 410 | 524 | +27.9% |
| Saudi Arabia | 331 | 169 | −48.9% |
| Israel | 180 | 321 | +78.8% |
| Morocco | 111 | 203 | +83.4% |
| Russian Federation | 446 | 158 | −64.6% |
Supply shocks and volatility concentrated in geopolitically sensitive flows
The volatility analysis reveals that the most volatile import flows originated from the Russian Federation (coefficient of variation 0.73), the United Arab Emirates (0.73), and India (0.62). On the export side, the highest volatility was observed for Algeria (0.89), Jordan (0.51), and the Russian Federation (0.47). Three notable supply shock events were detected:
- Ukraine imports (2022): A price shock with an abnormality score of 50.7 and a year-on-year price shift of +52.6%, consistent with wartime supply disruptions.
- United Kingdom exports (2017): A price shock (abnormality 48.5, shift +47.3%), potentially linked to post-Brexit currency effects and trade friction.
- United Arab Emirates imports (2019): A price shock (abnormality 47.4, shift +235.9%), likely reflecting re-export or transit trade distortions.
Italy and Spain dominate EU ceramic exports; production shifted toward higher value
Among EU member states, Italy and Spain consistently ranked as the largest exporters, accounting for over half of EU ceramic exports by value. In 2025, Italy exported €2.50 billion (+14.6% vs. 2015) and Spain €2.59 billion (+31.8%). Germany contributed €1.58 billion, followed by Poland (€469M, +29.9%) and France (€380M, +20.5%). Austria was the only major exporter to see a significant decline (−37.5%).
In terms of specialisation, Portugal exhibited the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 3.49), followed by Italy (2.76) and Spain (2.60). EU production data show a striking 64.1% decline in production volume (from 17.2 billion kg to 6.2 billion kg) but a 74.4% increase in production value (from €15.1 billion to €26.3 billion), confirming that the EU's ceramic industry has moved decisively toward higher-value output even as physical production contracted.
Conclusion
The EU ceramic products sector underwent a decade of profound structural transformation between 2015 and 2025. The most salient trend is the progressive hollowing-out of volume-driven export capacity, replaced by a higher-value, more specialised production profile. EU export volumes fell by a quarter, but revenues still grew by nearly 18%, as producers repositioned toward premium segments such as sanitary ware, technical ceramics, and high-end refractory goods. Simultaneously, imports surged by over 70% in volume, driven primarily by Chinese and increasingly Turkish and Indian suppliers, raising import concentration to levels that warrant attention.
The post-2020 period was marked by a sharp price transformation across nearly all product categories, initially driven by supply chain disruptions and energy cost pressures, with partial correction through 2023–2025. Geopolitical events—most notably the Russia-Ukraine conflict and its associated sanctions—materially reshaped trade flows, eliminating a major export market and introducing volatility into neighbouring supply chains.
Looking ahead, the sector faces a tension between its demonstrated capacity for value-added specialisation and its growing import dependency, particularly on China. The deepening of trade intensity (from 24% to 45% of production value) means that the EU ceramic industry is more exposed to external shocks than it was a decade ago, even as its competitive position in higher-end segments remains robust. Maintaining this balance—between openness and resilience, between volume and value—will be the central challenge for European ceramic producers in the years ahead.