Market evolution: Iron and steel (CN 72) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of the European Union's extra-EU trade in iron and steel products (Combined Nomenclature chapter 72) over the period 2015–2025. Chapter 72 is a broad heading that bundles everything from pig iron and ferro-alloys through semi-finished products, flat-rolled products, bars, rods, sections, and wire — covering 29 four-digit subheadings that underpin the EU's construction, automotive, machinery, and energy sectors. The period under review was shaped by successive shocks — the 2015–2016 commodity downturn, the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2021–2022 price supercycle, and the geopolitical reconfiguration triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine — all of which left deep imprints on the EU's trade flows. Three main dynamics emerge: a structural widening of the EU's trade deficit, a dramatic realignment of supplier and buyer relationships, and a pronounced shift in the product mix — notably the explosive growth of ferrous scrap exports.
1. A Widening Deficit: The EU's Structural Shift Toward Net Import Dependence
The trade balance deteriorated markedly over the decade
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's iron and steel trade with the rest of the world shifted from a near-balanced position to a pronounced structural deficit. In value terms, exports grew modestly from €26.5 billion to €28.0 billion (+5.4%), while imports surged from €28.0 billion to €39.0 billion (+39.3%). The resulting trade deficit widened from €1.5 billion in 2015 to €11.1 billion in 2025 — a deterioration of nearly 640%.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€ bn) | 26.5 | 28.0 | +5.4 |
| Import value (€ bn) | 28.0 | 39.0 | +39.3 |
| Trade balance (€ bn) | −1.5 | −11.1 | −637.7 |
| Export volume (Mt) | 39.5 | 33.6 | −14.9 |
| Import volume (Mt) | 50.4 | 54.0 | +7.1 |
Source: Trade overview
Quantity divergences explain the deficit more than price alone
The divergence is rooted in volumes as much as prices. Over the period, EU export volumes fell by 14.9% (from 39.5 Mt to 33.6 Mt), while import volumes rose by 7.1% (from 50.4 Mt to 54.0 Mt). Average unit export values rose from €672/t to €831/t (+23.8%), and average import unit values climbed from €556/t to €723/t (+30.0%). The steeper rise in import prices partly reflects the shift in the import product mix toward higher-value-added goods (coated flat products, ferro-alloys), but the simultaneous contraction in export volumes signals a deeper competitiveness challenge for EU producers in commodity-grade steel.
Net import reliance nearly quintupled
The net import reliance ratio — net imports as a share of apparent consumption — rose from 1.1% in 2015 to 5.3% in 2025, having peaked at 9.1% in one intervening year. In 2017 and 2018, the ratio briefly turned negative (i.e. the EU was a net exporter in those years), but the trend reversed sharply from 2019 onwards. Meanwhile, trade intensity (total extra-EU trade as a share of production) climbed from 20.7% to 28.4%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) rose from 11.1% to 14.2%, indicating that while the EU steel sector became more internationally engaged, it became structurally more dependent on inbound shipments to meet domestic demand.
EU production volumes grew but not enough to close the gap
According to production data, EU domestic production of iron and steel products covered by chapter 72 grew from 96.7 billion kg to 208.3 billion kg over the period, with a peak of 302.5 billion kg. Production value rose from €45.9 billion to €170.1 billion, reflecting the strong price increases of 2021–2022. However, this expansion was insufficient to offset rising import penetration, particularly in flat-rolled products and semi-finished goods.
2. Shifting Partners: Geopolitical Realignment in EU Steel Trade Flows
Russian imports collapsed; Turkey, India, and South Korea filled the gap
The most dramatic restructuring occurred on the import side. In 2015, Russia was the EU's single largest extra-EU supplier by value (€4.1 billion), followed by China (€4.1 billion) and the United Kingdom (€3.5 billion). By 2025, Russian imports had fallen to €2.2 billion (−46.3%), reflecting the impact of EU sanctions and trade restrictions imposed after 2022. The resulting supply vacuum was filled primarily by:
| Import partner | 2015 (€ bn) | 2025 (€ bn) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 1.0 | 3.8 | +269.6 |
| India | 1.4 | 3.2 | +133.4 |
| Korea, Republic of | 1.7 | 3.4 | +101.7 |
| China | 4.1 | 4.2 | +3.2 |
| Russian Federation | 4.1 | 2.2 | −46.3 |
| United Kingdom | 3.5 | 2.6 | −24.3 |
| Ukraine | 2.4 | 2.2 | −11.6 |
Source: Top partners by value
Turkish steelmakers, benefiting from proximity, competitive energy costs, and a depreciated lira, became the EU's third-largest supplier — up from €1.0 billion to €3.8 billion. Indian and South Korean suppliers more than doubled their EU sales, likely capturing market share both from displaced Russian volumes and from structural shifts in global overcapacity.
Ukraine maintained its position despite the conflict
Notably, Ukrainian exports to the EU fell only modestly — from €2.4 billion to €2.2 billion (−11.6%) — despite the severe disruption to Ukrainian steelmaking capacity caused by the war that began in February 2022. The EU's suspension of anti-dumping duties on Ukrainian steel and logistical rerouting through western border crossings helped sustain this flow.
Import concentration declined, export concentration rose
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) of import concentration by value fell from 845 to 606 (−28.3%), confirming that the EU diversified its import base as traditional suppliers were displaced. By volume, the decline was even steeper (1,088 → 603, −44.6%). In contrast, export concentration rose: the HHI for exports increased from 785 to 943 (+20.1%) in value and from 1,112 to 1,680 (+51.1%) in volume, indicating that EU steel exports became more reliant on a narrower set of destinations.
Algeria's collapse and Turkey's rise on the export side
On the export side, the most striking shift was the near-disappearance of exports to Algeria, which fell from €1.9 billion in 2015 to just €0.25 billion in 2025 (−86.6%). Turkey remained the EU's largest export market (€3.7 billion → €5.2 billion, +41.7%), followed by the United States (€3.8 billion → €4.4 billion, +15.8%) and the United Kingdom (€3.6 billion → €3.7 billion, +2.5%). Exports to Egypt more than doubled (€0.33 billion → €0.72 billion, +119.8%).
Within the EU, Italy became the dominant import hub
Among EU Member States, Italy consolidated its position as the bloc's largest importer of extra-EU iron and steel, with inbound value rising from €6.8 billion to €10.4 billion (+52.8%). Romania (+155%) and Poland (+84%) also saw large increases, reflecting the growth of steel-intensive manufacturing in Central and Eastern Europe. Germany's imports, by contrast, fell from €2.9 billion to €1.6 billion (−45.9%), consistent with the broader deindustrialisation trend in German heavy industry. On the export side, Germany remained the largest EU exporter (€5.6 billion → €5.4 billion), followed by the Netherlands and Belgium.
Specialisation is concentrated in a few traditional steel economies
In 2025, the EU members with the strongest revealed comparative advantage in iron and steel were Finland (RSCA: 0.55), Luxembourg (0.45), Austria (0.31), Belgium (0.24), and Slovakia (0.20) — all countries with long-standing integrated or electric-arc steelmaking traditions. At the other extreme, Ireland (RSCA: −0.93), Malta (−0.70), and Hungary (−0.54) showed the strongest comparative disadvantage, reflecting their lack of domestic primary steelmaking capacity.
3. Price Supercycles, Supply Shocks, and the Rise of Scrap Exports
The 2021–2022 price spike was the defining market event
The most pronounced price dynamic in the decade was the dramatic surge of 2021–2022, when global steel prices were propelled by a combination of post-pandemic demand recovery, supply chain disruptions, surging energy costs, and speculative restocking. EU average import prices peaked at an average of €1,138/t in 2022 (the dataset maximum), up from €496/t in 2020. Export prices peaked at €1,062/t. Prices subsequently corrected but by 2025 had not returned to pre-spike levels: import prices stood at €723/t and export prices at €831/t.
| Period | Avg. import price (€/t) | Avg. export price (€/t) |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 556 | 672 |
| 2019 | — | — |
| 2020 (trough) | 496 | 589 |
| 2022 (peak) | 1,138 | 1,062 |
| 2025 | 723 | 831 |
Source: Trade overview
Price shocks were most acute in specific bilateral flows
The shock detection analysis identifies three particularly anomalous events, all centred on 2021:
- EU exports to Egypt: a price shock with an abnormality score of 48.5 and a unit-value shift of +29.8%, representing 2.9% of total export value.
- EU imports from Türkiye: a price shock (abnormality 21.1, shift +53.2%), accounting for 10.8% of import value — the most commercially significant shock event.
- EU exports to India: a price shock (abnormality 13.4, shift +53.0%), covering 5.6% of export value.
These shocks reflect the global scramble for steel in 2021, when Turkish mills raised prices sharply and Indian demand pulled EU-origin material into new channels.
Ferro-alloys exhibited the highest price volatility among imported segments
Looking at the product segment breakdown, ferro-alloy (CN 7202) import prices were the most volatile, reaching €2,805/t in 2022 — nearly double the 2015 level of €1,421/t — before falling back to €1,827/t in 2025. This reflected the energy-intensive nature of ferro-alloy production and the impact of the European energy crisis on both domestic and imported alloy availability. Pig iron (7201) and ferrous scrap (7204) prices roughly followed the same boom-bust trajectory, while coated flat-rolled products (7210) saw import prices rise from €669/t to €830/t, a more moderate but still significant increase.
EU scrap exports grew by 72% in volume, reshaping the sector's trade profile
Perhaps the most structurally significant trend in the product mix was the explosive growth of ferrous scrap exports. Exports of CN 7204 (ferrous waste and scrap) rose from 9.1 million tonnes and €2.3 billion in 2015 to 15.8 million tonnes and €5.1 billion in 2025 — a volume increase of 72% and a value increase of 121%. By 2025, scrap had become the EU's single largest iron-and-steel export category by volume, far exceeding flat-rolled products. This growth reflects the EU's accelerating shift toward electric-arc-furnace (EAF) steelmaking, which generates significant scrap surpluses, combined with strong demand from Turkish and South Asian steelmakers.
Finished steel exports declined in both volume and value
Conversely, exports of traditional finished products contracted sharply:
| Export product | 2015 vol. (Mt) | 2025 vol. (Mt) | Change (%) | 2015 val. (€ bn) | 2025 val. (€ bn) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7204 – Scrap | 9.1 | 15.8 | +72.5 | 2.3 | 5.1 | +120.6 |
| 7208 – Hot-rolled flat (uncoated) | 5.0 | 2.1 | −58.5 | 2.5 | 1.7 | −32.2 |
| 7210 – Coated flat products | 4.7 | 2.8 | −42.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | −6.7 |
| 7214 – Hot-rolled bars/rods | 4.2 | 0.9 | −78.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | −64.2 |
| 7225 – Flat alloy steel (≥600mm) | 3.6 | 3.2 | −9.4 | 2.9 | 4.3 | +45.2 |
| 7216 – Angles, shapes, sections | 3.2 | 1.9 | −41.6 | 1.8 | 1.6 | −10.5 |
| 7213 – Wire rod (hot-rolled coils) | 2.0 | 0.9 | −56.5 | 0.9 | 0.6 | −36.1 |
Source: Product segment breakdown
Hot-rolled bar and rod exports (7214) collapsed by 78% in volume, and hot-rolled flat product exports (7208) fell by 59%. Only flat alloy steel (7225) held its value (+45.2% in revenue despite a slight volume decline), reflecting the shift toward higher-value specialty steels.
The import side showed semi-finished products gaining share
On the import side, semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel (7207) remained the largest category by volume (8.9 Mt in 2025), and hot-rolled flat products (7208) actually grew in volume (from 9.3 Mt to 11.5 Mt). This pattern — importing growing volumes of semi-finished and basic flat products while exporting scrap — points to a structural transformation in the EU's position in the global steel value chain.
Supplier volatility differed widely across partner countries
The coefficient of variation of annual import values ranged from just 0.04 for Norway (the most stable supplier) to 0.97 for Viet Nam (the most volatile). Among major suppliers, China (CV: 0.43) and Brazil (0.44) showed the highest volatility, while South Korea (0.16) and the United Kingdom (0.25) were more predictable. On the export side, Algeria was by far the most volatile destination (CV: 1.14), reflecting its collapse from a major to a marginal market. Among stable export partners, Norway (0.08) and Switzerland (0.12) stood out.
Conclusion
Over the decade 2015–2025, the EU's iron and steel trade underwent a triple transformation. First, the bloc shifted from near-balance to a structural import deficit exceeding €11 billion, with net import reliance rising from 1.1% to 5.3% — a trend driven by declining export volumes and rising inbound shipments. Second, the geopolitical map of steel trade was redrawn: Russian supply was cut nearly in half, replaced principally by Turkish, Indian, and South Korean suppliers, while import concentration fell and export concentration rose. Third, the product composition of EU trade was fundamentally reshaped: ferrous scrap became the EU's largest export category by volume (15.8 Mt in 2025), while exports of finished flat products and bars collapsed, signalling a move up the raw-material chain and down the value-added ladder. The 2021–2022 price supercycle amplified all these dynamics, but the structural trends — import dependence, supplier diversification, and the rise of scrap — predate the spike and appear likely to persist. For EU industrial policy, the data points to a steel sector that is increasingly open and internationally integrated, but less self-sufficient in the high-volume finished products that underpin its manufacturing base.