Market evolution: Pig iron (CN 7201) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in pig iron and spiegeleisen (customs code 7201) from 2015 to 2025. Over this period, the European Union has experienced a fundamental structural shift, characterized by a dramatic collapse in domestic production and a corresponding surge in import dependency. While import volumes have declined, their value has increased, indicating higher prices and changing supply chains. The EU's trade relationships have also undergone significant realignment, moving away from traditional partners and facing new sources of price volatility and supply concentration.

1. The Collapse of EU Production and Surging Import Dependency

The period is defined by a near-total withdrawal of EU domestic production of pig iron, forcing the bloc into an unprecedented reliance on external suppliers.

1.1. The Unravelling of Domestic Manufacturing Capacity

EU production of pig iron has experienced a catastrophic decline between 2015 and 2025. The production quantity fell from 29.84 million tonnes to just 0.8 million tonnes, a staggering decrease of 97.3%. The corresponding production value plummeted by 80.4%, from €2.04 billion to €400 million. This collapse indicates a severe deindustrialisation in this specific segment of the EU's steel value chain, likely driven by a combination of high energy costs, stringent environmental regulations, and global overcapacity.

1.2. Growing Structural Reliance on Imports

As domestic production vanished, the EU's net import reliance surged from 46.2% in 2015 to 67.7% in 2025, an increase of 46.5%. This means over two-thirds of the pig iron consumed in the EU now originates from outside the bloc. Interestingly, while the import volume decreased by 17.3% (from 3.04 million to 2.51 million tonnes), the import value grew by 6.2% (from €865 million to €919 million). This divergence points to a significant increase in the average import price, which rose by 28.3% from €285 per tonne to €366 per tonne, reflecting tighter global markets and potentially higher input costs.

2. Divergent Dynamics in Trade Partners and Products

The EU's trade patterns for pig iron have been reshuffled, with pronounced shifts in both import sources and export destinations, alongside volatility across product sub-segments.

2.1. A Reconfiguration of Import Sources

The geographical concentration of EU pig iron imports has decreased (HHI value from 3,079 to 2,008). While Russia remained the largest single supplier in 2025, its share fell by 36.6%. Notably, the EU has rapidly diversified towards other suppliers:

• Ukraine maintained a stable share.
• Brazil grew its exports to the EU by 34.9%.
• South Africa emerged as a major new supplier, with its import value soaring by 189.5%.

Among EU member states, Italy solidified its position as the bloc's largest importer (value +33.1%), while Latvia's imports grew exponentially (+14,268%), indicating its role as a key entry point.

2.2. Shifting Export Markets and Growing Concentration

Conversely, the concentration of EU exports increased significantly (HHI from 1,351 to 2,866). Turkey became the dominant export market, with its value growing by 289.1%. In contrast, exports to traditional markets collapsed: shipments to the United States fell by 95.4% and to China by 100%. This suggests that EU exporters are increasingly reliant on a narrower set of regional partners.

2.3. Product Segment Volatility

The product breakdown reveals divergent trends. Imports are dominated by standard non-alloy pig iron (CN 720110), which follows the overall volume trend. However, a sharp spike is observed in imports of alloy pig iron and spiegeleisen (CN 720150), with volume jumping from 721 tonnes in 2024 to 25,263 tonnes in 2025. For exports, the average price for high-phosphorus pig iron (CN 720120) reached over €1,000 per tonne in 2023-2025, indicating a niche market for specialized grades.

3. Price Volatility and External Supply Shocks

The decade was marked by significant price instability and discrete supply shocks that exposed the vulnerabilities of the EU's import-dependent model.

3.1. Systemic Price Inflation and Partner-Specific Volatility

The average import price increased by 28.3% over the period, with a peak of €582 per tonne in 2022. Volatility varied greatly by supply partner. While main suppliers like Norway (CV 0.19) showed stable prices, others like Serbia (CV 0.63) and, notably, India (CV 1.68) exhibited highly unstable pricing, complicating procurement planning.

3.2. Detectable Supply Shocks: 2021-2022

The data allows for the identification of discrete supply shock events. The most significant were:

1. A 2021 price shock for Ukrainian imports, with an abnormality score of 15.0 and a 56.3% year-on-year price shift, affecting 25.2% of import value.
2. A simultaneous 2021 price shock for Russian imports, with an abnormality of 11.6 and a 56.5% price shift, impacting over half (52.5%) of import value.

These synchronous shocks from the EU's two largest suppliers in 2021 highlight the systemic risk of geographic concentration and likely reflect the surge in global energy and commodity prices post-COVID-19.

3.3. The Specialization Gap Within the EU

An analysis of trade specialization in 2025 shows a stark internal divergence. Latvia (RSCA 0.94) and France (RSCA 0.54) are highly specialized in pig iron trade, meaning it is a much more important part of their trade profile than for the EU average. Conversely, countries like Austria, Lithuania, and Denmark have near-zero specialization (RSCA ≤ -0.99), indicating negligible direct involvement in this market. This creates an uneven vulnerability across the bloc to disruptions in pig iron supplies.

Conclusion

The EU pig iron market over 2015-2025 has been transformed from one with substantial domestic production to one characterized by deep import dependency and volatile external partnerships. The collapse of EU production is the foundational trend, forcing reliance on a reconfigured set of global suppliers. This transition has occurred alongside rising prices, increased trade concentration in exports, and exposure to significant supply shocks from key partners. The result is a structurally different market, more integrated into global trade flows but also more vulnerable to geopolitical and commercial pressures originating outside its borders. The stark specialization divide within the EU further complicates bloc-wide strategic responses to these vulnerabilities.