Market evolution: Ferrous waste and scrap (CN 7204) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in ferrous waste and scrap (Combined Nomenclature code 7204) over the period 2015–2025. The product category covers waste and scrap of iron or steel, including stainless steel scrap, alloy steel scrap, cast iron scrap, turnings and shavings, tinned iron or steel waste, and remelting scrap ingots, while excluding slag, scale, radioactive waste and primary forms of pig iron (Scope & Definitions).

The decade under review was marked by profound structural shifts. The European Union transformed from a modestly balanced trader of ferrous scrap into a major net exporter, with its trade surplus rising from €0.7 billion in 2015 to €3.3 billion in 2025 — a fourfold increase (General Overview). This transformation was driven by booming export volumes to developing economies, a collapse in imports from Russia following geopolitical events, and a secular rise in scrap prices. Below, we organise these dynamics into three main sections.

1. The EU's emergence as a dominant net exporter

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's export performance in ferrous scrap far outpaced its import growth, fundamentally repositioning the bloc in global trade flows.

Export growth substantially outstripped import growth

EU exports of ferrous scrap more than doubled in value, rising from €2.33 billion in 2015 to €5.14 billion in 2025 (+120.5%), while export volumes grew from 9.14 million tonnes to 15.76 million tonnes (+72.5%). By contrast, imports grew only modestly in value (+9.1%, from €1.68 billion to €1.83 billion) and actually declined in volume (−8.7%, from 5.24 million to 4.79 million tonnes). The peak year for export value was 2022, at €7.62 billion, while peak export volume was reached in 2021 at 19.43 million tonnes (General Overview).

The resulting trade balance evolution is striking:

The net import reliance indicator confirms this structural shift: the EU moved from a slight net import reliance of +0.9% in 2015 to a net export position of −5.7% in 2025, with a trough at −21.8% recorded in 2021–2022. The EU's export propensity surged from 0.1% to 22.5%, and trade intensity rose from 1.1% to 33.9% — underscoring how much more globally integrated this market became (Autonomy & Vulnerability).

The Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany anchored EU exports

Within the EU, a handful of member states drove the export surge. The Netherlands was the largest EU exporter throughout the period, with export values rising from €627 million in 2015 to €1.08 billion in 2025 (+72.6%), peaking at €1.83 billion in 2022. Belgium followed, growing from €418 million to €767 million (+83.7%), and Germany rose from €234 million to €463 million (+97.8%). Notably, Denmark and Romania experienced explosive growth of over +220% each, albeit from lower baselines (General Overview — top reporters).

On the import side, the geography was more diverse. Spain was the largest EU importer in 2015 (€565 million) but saw its imports nearly halve to €291 million by 2025 (−48.4%), reflecting declining domestic steel production capacity or shifting sourcing strategies. Italy, by contrast, doubled its imports to €264 million (+101.0%), while Greece saw a nearly fivefold increase from €38 million to €187 million (+398.1%) (General Overview — top reporters).

2. Shifting partner dynamics: from Russia to Türkiye, the Middle East, and South Asia

The geographic orientation of the EU's ferrous scrap trade underwent a dramatic reorientation over the decade, driven by industrial demand shifts in emerging markets and geopolitical disruptions affecting traditional suppliers.

Türkiye cemented its role as the EU's dominant scrap customer

Türkiye was already the EU's largest export partner in 2015, purchasing €1.19 billion worth of ferrous scrap. By 2025, this figure had surged to €3.05 billion (+157.5%), with a peak of €4.56 billion in 2022. Türkiye's share of EU scrap exports consistently exceeded 50–70% of the top-seven destinations' value, reflecting the country's massive electric arc furnace (EAF) steelmaking sector, which relies heavily on imported scrap (General Overview — top partners).

Beyond Türkiye, a group of emerging-market buyers significantly expanded their share:

Egypt's trajectory is particularly noteworthy: from a marginal buyer, it became the EU's second-largest extra-EU scrap destination, reflecting the expansion of its steel industry. India likewise expanded its imports substantially, consistent with its rapidly growing domestic steel production (General Overview — top partners).

Russia's collapse as an import source reshaped EU supply chains

The most dramatic import-side shift was the near-disappearance of Russian ferrous scrap. The Russian Federation was the EU's fourth-largest import partner in 2015 at €346 million but collapsed to just €25 million in 2025 (−92.6%). This decline accelerated sharply from 2022 onwards, consistent with the EU sanctions regime imposed following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The volatility coefficient for Russian imports reached 0.79, among the highest of any partner, reflecting the abruptness of the disruption (Volatility & Shocks).

The loss of Russian supply was partially offset by growth from other sources:

The United Kingdom remained the EU's top import partner throughout the period, though its share gradually eroded. Ukraine's extraordinary growth (from €7 million to €118 million) likely reflects both the redirection of Ukrainian scrap that previously went to other destinations and evolving trade patterns amid the war (General Overview — top partners).

Export concentration intensified while import sources diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports rose from 2,852 to 3,798 (+33.2%) over the period, indicating increasing concentration on fewer destination markets — principally Türkiye and its emerging-market peers. Meanwhile, import HHI fell from 1,816 to 1,235 (−32.0%), reflecting a more diversified sourcing structure following the loss of Russian supply (Market Structure).

3. Price cycles, shock events, and production growth

The decade was characterised by a secular rise in scrap prices, punctuated by sharp cyclical swings and notable supply-side shocks — all set against a backdrop of strong growth in EU scrap production.

Prices followed a boom-bust trajectory peaking in 2021–2022

EU export prices for ferrous scrap rose from €255 per tonne in 2015 to a peak of €433 per tonne in 2022 (+70%), before declining to €326 per tonne in 2025. Import prices displayed a similar pattern, rising from €321 to a peak of €555 per tonne in 2022, before falling back to €383 per tonne. The import price consistently exceeded the export price throughout the period, reflecting the higher-value composition of inbound scrap (particularly stainless steel scrap, which trades at substantially higher unit values) (General Overview).

At the product-segment level, the price dynamics varied considerably:

Remelting scrap ingots (720450) saw the most extreme price appreciation, with import prices more than doubling over the period despite remaining a small-volume segment (Product Segment Breakdown).

Significant price shocks were detected in 2021

The volatility analysis reveals that the year 2021 was a period of acute price stress. A price shock was detected in EU exports to Pakistan, with a +64.3% year-on-year price shift and an abnormality score of 27.4. Exports to Türkiye — by far the largest partner — experienced a +47.8% price shift (abnormality 13.1), representing 71.9% of total export value. On the import side, the United Kingdom exhibited a +49.7% price shock (abnormality 21.4) in the same year, affecting 35.3% of import value (Volatility & Shocks).

These 2021 shocks coincided with the global post-pandemic commodities boom, during which steel demand surged and scrap availability tightened. The volatility coefficients (measuring year-on-year instability) were highest for the Ukraine import channel (CV = 1.48) and the Russia import channel (CV = 0.79), reflecting the geopolitical disruption. On the export side, destinations such as Egypt (CV = 0.50), India (CV = 0.54), and the United States (CV = 0.44) showed elevated volatility, while Türkiye remained relatively stable (CV = 0.19) despite its dominant market position (Volatility & Shocks).

EU scrap production expanded dramatically

A striking feature of the period was the rapid growth in EU scrap production. Output surged from 5.57 billion kg in 2015 to 35.1 billion kg in 2025 (+530.6%), with production value rising from €1.79 billion to €9.18 billion (+413.7%). Peak production was recorded in 2024 at 36.8 billion kg and €10.08 billion in value. This growth reflects the increasing availability of end-of-life steel (from demolished infrastructure, decommissioned vehicles, and industrial waste), as well as improved scrap collection and processing capacity within the EU (Market Structure).

The rapid production growth partly explains the EU's shift to net exporter status: domestic supply expanded faster than domestic steelmaking demand could absorb it, creating a growing surplus available for export. This dynamic is particularly relevant in the context of the EU's circular economy policies, which promote scrap recovery and recycling, while simultaneously, the EU's own steel industry has been constrained by high energy costs, carbon pricing (EU ETS), and competition from imports of finished steel products.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 decade, the EU's ferrous waste and scrap market underwent a profound structural transformation. The bloc consolidated its position as a major global supplier of ferrous scrap, with exports more than doubling in value and its trade surplus expanding fourfold. This was driven by a convergence of factors: surging demand from Türkiye and emerging economies in the Middle East and South Asia; the collapse of Russian imports following sanctions; a secular rise in global scrap prices; and strong growth in domestic scrap recovery.

Looking at the structural characteristics in 2025, the market exhibits several features worth monitoring. Export concentration has intensified, with Türkiye absorbing an outsized share — creating a potential vulnerability should Turkish demand contract or policy conditions change. Import sources have diversified, but the loss of Russia left gaps that newer partners are only partially filling. Prices, while well below their 2021–2022 peaks, remain elevated compared to 2015 levels, supporting continued collection and export activity.

The EU's role as a scrap exporter also carries broader policy implications. As the bloc pursues its green steel transition and carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), the competition between domestic steelmakers seeking low-carbon scrap feedstock and the export market will be an increasingly important dynamic to watch in the years ahead.