Market evolution: Stainless steel scrap (CN 720421) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of the European Union's international trade in stainless steel waste and scrap (customs code 720421) between 2015 and 2025. As a critical secondary raw material for stainless steel production, stainless steel scrap plays a vital role in the circular economy and in the competitiveness of the EU steel industry. The period under review has been marked by significant structural shifts—including geopolitical disruptions, sanctions regimes, and changing global demand patterns—that have fundamentally reshaped the EU's trade position in this commodity. Drawing on EU trade data, the analysis identifies three overarching dynamics: the overall contraction of EU trade volumes, a dramatic reorientation of trade partners, and an increasing concentration of export flows toward a single destination.
1. A Contracting Market with Rising Unit Values
The EU's trade in stainless steel scrap with non-EU countries has declined significantly over the decade, in terms of both volume and value. However, unit values have trended upward, suggesting that the underlying market for this material has tightened even as physical flows have diminished.
Overall trade volumes and values have fallen sharply
Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of stainless steel scrap fell from €579.7 million to €410.6 million (–29.2% by value), and from 481,067 tonnes to 317,615 tonnes (–34.0% by volume). Exports experienced a similar decline, dropping from €353.2 million to €272.4 million (–22.9% by value) and from 283,485 tonnes to 205,255 tonnes (–27.6% by volume). These declines reflect a broad contraction in extra-EU scrap trade, likely driven by a combination of increased intra-EU recycling, reduced stainless steel production in some regions, and export restrictions imposed by third countries.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Imports — value (€M) | 579.7 | 410.6 | –29.2% |
| Imports — quantity (kt) | 481.1 | 317.6 | –34.0% |
| Exports — value (€M) | 353.2 | 272.4 | –22.9% |
| Exports — quantity (kt) | 283.5 | 205.3 | –27.6% |
| Trade balance (€M) | –226.5 | –138.2 | +39.0% |
Source: General Overview
Unit prices have trended upward despite volume declines
One of the most notable features of this market is the divergence between falling volumes and rising unit prices. Average import prices increased from €1,205/t in 2015 to €1,293/t in 2025 (+7.3%), while export prices rose from €1,246/t to €1,327/t (+6.5%). A pronounced spike occurred in 2021–2022, when import prices peaked at €2,052/t and export prices reached €1,653/t, reflecting the global commodity price surge in the wake of COVID-related supply disruptions and the energy crisis that followed. Although prices have since retreated from their peaks, they remain above 2015 levels, indicating a structurally tighter market for this material.
The EU remains a net importer, but reliance has narrowed
The EU has been a net importer of stainless steel scrap throughout the entire period. However, the net import reliance has improved markedly: from –20.1% in 2015 to –6.2% in 2025, a 69.4% improvement. This convergence reflects the fact that import volumes have declined faster than export volumes, narrowing the gap. The trade balance moved from –€226.5 million to –€138.2 million over the period, a 39% improvement. This suggests the EU is gradually reducing its dependence on external scrap supplies, though it still sources more scrap from abroad than it ships out.
2. A Dramatic Reorientation of Trade Partners
The decade has witnessed a profound reshuffling of the EU's key trading partners for stainless steel scrap, driven primarily by geopolitical events. The most striking changes include the near-total collapse of trade with Russia, the rise of India as the dominant export destination, and the growing importance of Norway and Mexico as import sources.
Russia's disappearance from the import side is the single largest structural shift
In 2015, the Russian Federation was the EU's largest source of stainless steel scrap imports by value, accounting for €150.5 million. By 2025, this figure had collapsed to just €3.0 million—a decline of 98.0%. This dramatic drop coincides with the EU sanctions imposed on Russia following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The partner data shows that Russia's share was already declining before 2022, but the sanctions effect accelerated the collapse. This left a significant supply gap that other partners have partially filled.
India has consolidated its position as the EU's primary export market
On the export side, India's share has grown dramatically. EU exports to India rose from €134.6 million in 2015 to €222.6 million in 2025, an increase of 65.4%. India now accounts for the lion's share of EU stainless steel scrap exports, a position that was reinforced by a major price shock in 2021, when India-bound shipments exhibited an abnormality score of 124.7 and a 49.6% price shift, representing 73.1% of export value. This concentration is confirmed by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports, which surged from 2,591 in 2015 to 6,782 in 2025 (+161.8%), indicating a shift from moderate to high concentration.
Several formerly important export destinations have collapsed
While India's share has grown, a number of other major export partners have seen their trade with the EU virtually disappear:
| Partner | 2015 value (€M) | 2025 value (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 134.6 | 222.6 | +65.4% |
| Korea, Republic of | 105.9 | 0.17 | –99.8% |
| Taiwan | 38.6 | 0.37 | –99.0% |
| United Kingdom | 22.7 | 12.8 | –43.7% |
| China | 29.5 | 3.1 | –89.4% |
| United States | 39.2 | 0.14 | –87.3% |
Source: Top partners by value
The near-total withdrawal of Korea, Taiwan, and the United States as export destinations suggests a combination of factors: these countries may have developed their own domestic scrap collection capacity, shifted sourcing to other suppliers (e.g., Japan, the United States), or imposed import restrictions on scrap materials. China's decline is consistent with its tightening quality restrictions on scrap imports over the period.
Import sources have diversified, with Norway and Mexico gaining ground
On the import side, Türkiye has remained the EU's top supplier throughout the period, with relatively stable volumes around €100 million. However, Norway (+63.7% to €33.1 million) and Mexico (+69.3% to €24.0 million) have grown significantly, partially compensating for the loss of Russian supply. Switzerland and the United Kingdom have remained steady but smaller contributors. The import-side HHI fell from 1,262 to 1,040 (–17.6%), indicating a modest diversification of import sources—a welcome development for supply resilience.
Price volatility varies sharply across partners
The volatility analysis reveals highly uneven price stability across partners. On the export side, Korea (CV 2.95) and the United States (CV 1.77) exhibit extremely high volatility, consistent with their episodic and declining trade volumes. On the import side, Russia (CV 0.72) and the United States (CV 1.16) show high volatility, while Switzerland (CV 0.09) and Türkiye (CV 0.23) are comparatively stable—reinforcing the latter's reliability as a supply partner.
3. Shifting Internal Dynamics Among EU Member States
The contraction and reorientation of stainless steel scrap trade have not affected all EU Member States equally. The data reveals significant shifts in the relative positions of individual countries as importers and exporters, as well as divergent performance across the two main product sub-categories.
The Netherlands remains the EU's largest trader but has lost significant ground
The Netherlands was by far the EU's largest extra-EU trader of stainless steel scrap in 2015, both as an importer (€268.2 million) and an exporter (€212.5 million). By 2025, its import value had fallen to €121.3 million (–54.8%) and its export value to €77.4 million (–63.6%). Despite this sharp decline, the Netherlands remains the leading EU Member State in both categories, reflecting its role as a major scrap hub with significant port and logistics infrastructure. Germany, the second-largest importer, saw a more moderate decline from €79.5 million to €64.0 million (–19.5%).
Italy, Belgium, and Sweden have gained ground as exporters
While the Netherlands contracted, several other Member States expanded their export activity:
| Reporter | 2015 exports (€M) | 2025 exports (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 212.5 | 77.4 | –63.6% |
| Germany | 40.3 | 46.0 | +14.1% |
| Italy | 9.5 | 35.4 | +272.4% |
| Belgium | 16.0 | 29.8 | +85.7% |
| Sweden | 19.9 | 28.3 | +42.1% |
Source: Top reporters by value
Italy's export growth of 272.4% is particularly striking and may reflect both increased scrap generation from its stainless steel manufacturing sector and improved competitive positioning. Lithuania stands out on the import side, growing from virtually zero (€0.5 million) to €6.5 million—a 1,240% increase—suggesting the emergence of new processing capacity in the Baltic states.
Germany and the Netherlands are the most specialised EU producers
The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that Germany (RSCA 0.34, production share 42.9%) and the Netherlands (RSCA 0.13, production share 18.8%) are the EU's most specialised producers of stainless steel scrap, together accounting for over 60% of EU production. The Baltic states of Estonia (RSCA 0.61) and Latvia (RSCA 0.47) show the highest relative specialisation, though their absolute production shares remain small. At the other end, Spain, Belgium, and Ireland show negative RSCA values, indicating they are net importers in relative terms.
EU domestic production has edged lower
EU production of stainless steel scrap declined modestly over the period, from 36.0 billion kg in 2015 to 33.6 billion kg in 2025 (–6.7% by volume, –3.5% by value to €8.78 billion). This mild contraction, set against the sharper decline in extra-EU trade volumes, suggests that intra-EU scrap flows may have partially substituted for imports, or that stainless steel production itself has shifted.
The two sub-segments show divergent trajectories
The product heading 720421 encompasses two sub-categories: high-nickel scrap (72042110, containing ≥8% nickel by weight) and other stainless steel scrap (72042190). Their trade patterns have diverged:
Imports of high-nickel scrap (72042110) dropped from 340,607 tonnes in 2015 to 193,560 tonnes in 2025 (–43.2%), while other scrap (72042190) remained relatively stable at around 124,000–182,000 tonnes. High-nickel scrap commands a significant price premium: its average import price in 2025 (€1,401/t) exceeded that of other scrap (€1,125/t) by 24.3%.
Exports of high-nickel scrap (72042110) collapsed from 150,885 tonnes to 55,178 tonnes (–63.4%), while other scrap (72042190) actually grew from 132,600 tonnes to 150,077 tonnes (+13.2%). This divergence suggests that the EU is increasingly retaining its higher-value nickel-bearing scrap domestically—likely driven by the strategic importance of nickel as a critical raw material—while exporting lower-grade material.
Conclusion
The EU's trade in stainless steel scrap (CN 720421) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. Three key takeaways emerge from the data:
-
A smaller but more resilient market: Both import and export volumes have contracted by roughly one-third, but the EU's net import reliance has improved significantly (from –20% to –6%), suggesting greater domestic circularity and reduced external dependency.
-
Geopolitical shocks have reshaped trade flows: The collapse of Russian imports (–98%) and the consolidation of Indian exports (+65%) represent the most consequential structural shifts. The near-total disappearance of Korea, Taiwan, and the US as export destinations further underscores the extent of this reorientation.
-
Concentration risk has shifted from imports to exports: While import sourcing has modestly diversified (HHI down 18%), export concentration has surged dramatically (HHI up 162%), with India now dominating EU stainless steel scrap exports. This creates a new vulnerability on the outbound side that merits monitoring.
Looking ahead, the EU's strategic focus on critical raw materials, the continued tightening of scrap export policies in third countries, and the growing demand for recycled stainless steel in the green transition are likely to further shape this market. The declining but still-negative trade balance suggests that the EU will remain a net importer in the near term, but the trend toward reduced reliance and the retention of high-nickel scrap point to an increasingly strategic approach to this vital secondary raw material.