Market evolution: Aluminium and articles (CN 76) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the trade dynamics of the European Union in aluminium and articles thereof (Combined Nomenclature code 76) over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a market characterized by a structural deficit that has widened significantly, driven by evolving import prices and supply sources. Following a period of relative stability, the period from 2021 onwards is marked by pronounced price shocks and a notable reconfiguration of the EU's import partnerships, while the Union's own export competitiveness has faced new pressures.
1. A Widening Deficit: The EU's Growing Import Dependence
The EU has maintained a persistent and expanding trade deficit in aluminium products. This structural gap between imports and exports, measured in value, has been a defining feature of the decade, with imports consistently outpacing exports.
1.1 The Trajectory of the Trade Balance
The EU's trade balance for CN 76 deteriorated substantially between 2015 and 2025. The deficit grew from -€6.4 billion in 2015 to -€13.4 billion in 2025, a 109.3% increase. The most acute deficit was recorded in 2022, reaching -€21.3 billion, a year characterized by extreme price inflation for imports. The balance only partially recovered in subsequent years.
| Year | Trade Balance (EUR) |
|---|---|
| 2015 | -6,412,172,278 |
| 2022 | -21,271,038,731 |
| 2025 | -13,419,747,420 |
| Trade |
1.2 Drivers: Price and Volume Dynamics
The widening deficit was primarily driven by a steep rise in the value of imports, which increased by 62.2% over the period, from €20.0 billion to €32.5 billion. This was fueled by both a 36.8% rise in average import prices (from €2,384/t to €3,261/t) and an 18.6% increase in imported volumes (from 8.4 million tonnes to 10.0 million tonnes). Meanwhile, exports, though growing in value by 40.0%, lagged behind, constrained by a smaller volume increase of 12.0%.
2. Price Turbulence and Supply Chain Shocks
The latter half of the period (2021-2023) was defined by significant market volatility, with import and export prices experiencing record highs and abnormal shocks linked to specific geopolitical events.
2.1 The 2021-2022 Price Spike
Aluminium prices surged dramatically in 2021 and peaked in 2022. The EU's average import price reached its maximum of €3,805 per tonne in 2022, a 73.3% increase from 2015. This spike was even more pronounced in key product segments; for instance, the price of imported unwrought aluminium (CN 7601) leaped from €1,891/t in 2015 to €3,180/t in 2022. This was part of a global commodity supercycle influenced by energy crises and post-pandemic demand.
2.2 Detected Supply Shocks
Analysis detected clear price shocks in 2022, particularly in exports to certain partners. The most abnormal shock was recorded in exports to Japan, where the price shifted by +51.7% with an abnormality score of 18.7. Similar high-abnormality price shocks were detected in exports to South Korea (+70.8%) and Canada (+49.4%) in the same year. These events reflect the intense global price transmission during the energy crisis of 2022.
| Partner | Shock Type | Flow | Abnormality | Price Shift (2022) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japan | price | exports | 18.7 | +51.7% |
| Korea, Rep. | price | exports | 12.0 | +70.8% |
| Canada | price | exports | 8.8 | +49.4% |
| Supply Shocks |
3. Restructuring Partnerships: Shifting Sources and Destinations
The EU's trade geography underwent a significant transformation, marked by the diversification of import sources and a consolidation of key export markets.
3.1 Import Partners: The Decline of Russia, The Rise of Others
The most dramatic shift occurred in imports from the Russian Federation, which collapsed by 71.5% from €2.6 billion in 2015 to €0.8 billion in 2025, following geopolitical events. This void was filled by increased imports from other partners:
- China: +71.9% (€2.3bn → €4.0bn)
- Iceland: +210.3% (€0.7bn → €2.2bn)
- Türkiye: +147.1% (€1.2bn → €2.9bn)
- Norway remained the largest single supplier, growing to €4.5 billion (+51.9%).
This diversification is reflected in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value, which fell from 875 in 2015 to 679 in 2025, indicating a less concentrated and potentially more resilient import base.
3.2 Export Markets: Strengthening Existing Ties
EU exports became more concentrated geographically. The HHI for exports by value decreased only slightly (from 1,018 to 899). The United Kingdom remained the paramount market, with exports growing to €3.8 billion. Significant growth was also seen in exports to Switzerland (+54.5%), the United States (+69.7%), and notably India (+183.6%), which became a top-5 destination. The reliance on the top seven export partners thus solidified.
Conclusion
The 2015-2025 period for the EU's aluminium trade (CN 76) was one of transformation and increased challenge. The market is characterized by a deepening import dependency, with the trade deficit more than doubling. The period was punctuated by a severe price shock in 2021-2022, driven by global energy markets and supply chain disruptions, which exposed the EU's vulnerability to external price pressures. Concurrently, the trade landscape was reshaped by a swift realignment away from Russian imports towards a more diversified set of suppliers, including China, Iceland, and Türkiye. While the EU has successfully redirected its import flows, its export profile has become more, not less, reliant on a handful of key Western partners. The net import reliance on non-EU countries, though volatile, ended the period significantly higher than it began, underscoring the structural challenge of securing a resilient and cost-competitive supply of this critical industrial metal.