Market evolution: Aluminium scrap (CN 7602) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of aluminium waste and scrap (CN 7602) involving the European Union and its non-EU partners between 2015 and 2025. Aluminium scrap is a critical secondary raw material in the circular economy, feeding directly into the aluminium recycling and remelting industries. Over the period under review, the EU has consolidated its position as a major net exporter of this material, with both trade volumes and values rising substantially. The analysis draws on trade data to identify structural shifts, evolving trade partnerships, and market vulnerabilities.

1. A Widening Export Surplus Fueled by Rapid Value Growth

The EU's aluminium scrap trade expanded markedly over the decade, but the growth was strikingly asymmetric: exports outpaced imports by a wide margin, turning what was already a positive trade balance into a commanding surplus.

1.1. Exports nearly tripled in value while volumes almost doubled

Between 2015 and 2025, EU exports of aluminium scrap grew from €847.5 million to €2.32 billion (+174.3%), while the corresponding quantity rose from 679,385 tonnes to 1,273,397 tonnes (+87.4%). View trade overview. The fact that value grew roughly twice as fast as volume points to a significant increase in unit export prices over the period.

1.2. Imports grew more modestly, amplifying the trade surplus

EU imports increased from €600 million to €1.25 billion (+108.9%) in value and from 465,295 to 652,350 tonnes (+40.2%) in volume. The import price per tonne also rose, but import volumes grew far less dynamically than exports. As a result, the EU's trade balance in value expanded from €247.6 million to over €1.07 billion — a 332.7% increase. By 2025, the EU was exporting nearly twice as much aluminium scrap by value as it was importing.

1.3. Unit prices rose for both exports and imports

Export and import prices followed broadly similar trajectories, rising by 46–49% over the period. This reflects a global tightening of aluminium scrap markets and the increasing premium placed on recycled aluminium as a feedstock for decarbonised production.

2. Shifting Geographical Patterns: Toward Asia and the Middle East

A second major dynamic is the reorientation of EU aluminium scrap trade flows away from traditional European partners and toward fast-growing Asian and Middle Eastern markets, particularly on the export side.

2.1. Asia became the dominant destination for EU scrap exports

The top export partners in 2025 were overwhelmingly Asian:

India emerged as by far the largest single destination, absorbing €688 million worth of EU scrap in 2025 — more than a third of total EU export value and a 256% increase from 2015. Thailand experienced the most dramatic growth, surging from just €9 million to €281 million, making it a top-five destination by 2025. Türkiye also grew explosively (+845%), reflecting the country's expanding aluminium recycling capacity and its strategic position between EU and Middle Eastern markets.

2.2. China's role remained stable while other Asian markets surged

China was already the second-largest export partner in 2015 (€237 million) and remained so in 2025 (€235 million), essentially flat over the period. This stagnation stands in stark contrast to the explosive growth seen for India, Thailand, and Pakistan, suggesting that China's demand for imported aluminium scrap may have plateaued, possibly due to tightened import regulations (including the 2018 restrictions on solid waste imports) and the growing scale of its own domestic scrap generation.

2.3. European partners lost ground on the export side

The United Kingdom, historically a major destination for EU aluminium scrap, saw its share decline from €136.6 million to €76.4 million (−44.1%). This may partly reflect post-Brexit trade frictions but also the gravitational pull of higher-growth Asian markets. Switzerland remained a stable partner but grew only modestly (+43%).

2.4. Import sources diversified, with Switzerland and the UK still dominant

On the import side, the EU's top partners remained predominantly European, with Switzerland (€247M, +60.8%) and the United Kingdom (€216M, +27.3%) as the two largest suppliers throughout the period. View partner data. Notably, several distant partners grew strongly:

• Australia: from €9.4M to €59.4M (+531%)
• Norway: from €24.3M to €71.0M (+193%)
• Israel: from €22.9M to €70.8M (+210%)
• United States: from €26.5M to €64.3M (+142%)

This geographic broadening of supply sources contributed to a significant decline in import concentration (HHI), from 1,567 to 902 (−42.5%), indicating a less vulnerable import structure.

2.5. Germany, Spain, and Greece saw the largest intra-EU export increases

Among EU Member States, the largest exporters grew their shipments substantially:

Spain stands out, with a near-sixfold increase in export value, suggesting a major expansion of its role as a re-export or aggregation hub for aluminium scrap. On the import side, Greece showed the most dramatic growth (from €23.3M to €190.5M, +716%), possibly linked to the establishment or expansion of recycling capacity in the country.

3. Growing Openness, Volatile Partnerships, and Emerging Vulnerabilities

The third major dynamic concerns the EU's increasing trade openness and the risks associated with a more concentrated export orientation and volatile partner relationships.

3.1. The EU became a strong net exporter with very high trade intensity

The net import reliance indicator moved from −15.5% to −81.0% over the period. A negative value indicates net export status, so the EU shifted from a moderate net exporter to a very strong one. At the same time, export propensity rose from 70.0% to 98.4%, and trade intensity reached 99.0% by 2025. These figures indicate that nearly all EU aluminium scrap production is entering international trade, and almost all of it leaves the EU. This exposes the EU's scrap market to external demand shocks, currency movements, and potential trade policy interventions by importing countries.

3.2. EU production volumes grew but production value declined

According to the available production data, EU aluminium scrap production increased from 1.33 billion kg to 1.50 billion kg (+12.8%), while production value fell from €2.56 billion to €2.20 billion (−14.1%). This divergence suggests a structural shift in how aluminium scrap is valued domestically, possibly reflecting changes in scrap quality mix, regional pricing, or measurement methodology. The growth in physical output, however, confirms the expanding role of aluminium recycling in the EU.

3.3. Export concentration remained relatively high, with India as a dominant buyer

While import concentration (HHI) declined substantially (from 1,734 to 1,352 on the export side, and from 1,567 to 902 on the import side), the EU's export pattern became increasingly dominated by India. India's share of EU export value reached 29.6% by 2025 (€688M out of €2.32B). While the diversification toward Thailand, Pakistan, and Türkiye partially offset this concentration, a sudden Indian policy shift — such as tighter import restrictions or tariff changes — could materially disrupt EU scrap export revenues.

3.4. Price volatility was pronounced, with a notable 2021 shock

The volatility analysis reveals substantial year-to-year fluctuations in trade values with key partners. For exports, Thailand (coefficient of variation 1.11) and Malaysia (1.13) showed extreme volatility, while for imports, Canada (0.84) and the United States (0.50) were the most unstable partners. Price shock events centred on 2021, a year marked by post-pandemic supply chain disruptions and surging commodity prices:

The 2021 price surge for exports to the UK (an abnormality score of 109.5 and a 72.8% price shift) stands out as the most extreme single event, likely reflecting a combination of post-Brexit market re-adjustment and the global commodity price spike of that year.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU aluminium scrap market underwent a fundamental transformation. The EU consolidated its role as a major net exporter of aluminium scrap, with export values nearly tripling and the trade surplus expanding to over €1 billion. This was driven by explosive demand growth in Asian markets — above all India, but also Thailand, Pakistan, and Türkiye — while traditional European partners like the UK lost share. At the same time, the EU diversified its import sources, reducing concentration risk on the supply side.

These shifts brought greater integration into global scrap flows but also heightened exposure to external risks. The EU's export propensity reached 98.4%, meaning virtually all domestically produced scrap is traded internationally. The growing dependence on a few key Asian buyers, combined with significant price volatility (notably the 2021 shock), underscores the need for continued monitoring of trade policy developments in partner countries. Any restrictive measures by India, China, or other major importers could have material consequences for the EU's scrap recycling value chain.