Market evolution: Aluminium foil (CN 7607) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU trade in aluminium foil (Combined Nomenclature code 7607) over the period 2015–2025. The product covers aluminium foil of a thickness ≤ 0.2 mm, whether or not printed or backed, excluding stamping foils and Christmas tree decorating material. It encompasses three subcategories: un-backed foil simply rolled (760711), un-backed foil further worked (760719), and backed foil (760720). The scope and definitions confirm that the data covers complete annual periods from 2015 through 2025.
The EU aluminium foil market underwent significant structural shifts over the decade, shaped by energy price volatility, changing trade relationships, and evolving competitive dynamics. Three overarching themes emerge: a marked erosion of the EU's trade surplus, a dramatic reconfiguration of supply chains centred on Türkiye's rise and persistent price shocks, and a divergence between volume and value trends that reflects both cost inflation and product-mix effects.
1. The Declining Trade Surplus: From Net Exporter Strength to Import Dependence
The EU's trade balance deteriorated substantially over the period
The EU entered the period as a strong net exporter of aluminium foil, posting a trade surplus of €626.5 million in 2015. By 2025, this surplus had shrunk to €411.2 million, a decline of 34.4%. The lowest point was reached in 2022, when the surplus fell to just €196.4 million — less than a third of its 2015 level — before partially recovering.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exports (value, €bn) | 1.525 | 1.721 | +12.8% |
| Imports (value, €bn) | 0.898 | 1.310 | +45.8% |
| Trade balance (€m) | 626.5 | 411.2 | −34.4% |
Source: General Overview
Import growth significantly outpaced export growth
The fundamental driver of the surplus erosion is an asymmetry in growth rates. While export values rose by 12.8% over the decade, import values surged by 45.8%. On the volume side, the contrast is even starker: export quantities fell by 15.2% (from 328,690 tonnes to 278,792 tonnes), whereas import quantities rose by 18.6% (from 238,125 tonnes to 282,356 tonnes). By 2025, the EU imported slightly more aluminium foil by weight than it exported — a significant inversion from the early years of the period.
Rising unit prices masked the volume decline in exports
Export unit values rose by 33.0% over the period (from €4,639/t to €6,172/t), partially compensating for the fall in physical volumes. Import prices also rose, but more moderately at 22.9% (from €3,773/t to €4,638/t). The net import reliance metric improved from −37.4% to −10.7% (a 71.4% change), confirming that the EU's self-sufficiency in this product has diminished markedly.
EU production grew but at a slower pace than imports
EU domestic production of aluminium foil rose from 943 million kg to 1,050 million kg in volume (+11.3%) and from €3.76 billion to €5.0 billion in value (+33.1%), according to production data. While this indicates continued industrial capacity, the pace of production growth lagged behind the surge in imports, particularly from 2020 onwards.
2. Shifting Supply Chains: Türkiye's Rise and the 2022 Price Shock
Türkiye emerged as the most dynamic import partner
Among the EU's top import partners, Türkiye stands out with an extraordinary 107.6% increase in import value over the period (from €176.0 million to €365.4 million). By 2025, Türkiye had become the second-largest supplier to the EU, nearly matching China. Other partners showing strong growth include the Republic of Korea (+243.1%) and the United Kingdom (+70.2%). China remained the largest single supplier but grew more modestly at 13.5%.
| Import partner | 2015 (€m) | 2025 (€m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 234.0 | 265.6 | +13.5% |
| Türkiye | 176.0 | 365.4 | +107.6% |
| Switzerland | 136.1 | 110.7 | −18.6% |
| Korea, Republic of | 26.6 | 91.3 | +243.1% |
| United Kingdom | 47.0 | 80.0 | +70.2% |
| Armenia | 43.8 | 59.4 | +35.7% |
| Norway | 26.6 | 32.6 | +22.5% |
Source: Top partners
2022 was a year of pronounced price shocks concentrated on Türkiye
The volatility analysis reveals that three of the most significant shock events in the dataset occurred in 2022 and all involved Türkiye or Ukraine:
| Entity | Flow | Shock type | Abnormality | Price shift | Value share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | Exports | Price | 25.7 | +40.3% | 7.9% |
| Ukraine | Exports | Price | 11.0 | +44.7% | 1.7% |
| Türkiye | Imports | Price | 5.2 | +62.6% | 28.9% |
These shocks reflect the broader energy crisis triggered by the Russia–Ukraine conflict in early 2022. Aluminium smelting is highly energy-intensive, and Türkiye — as a major regional producer — saw its export prices spike sharply. The EU's import prices from Türkiye jumped by 62.6% in a single year. Simultaneously, EU export prices to Türkiye rose by 40.3%, suggesting that bilateral trade was heavily disrupted by energy-cost transmission.
Export destinations shifted towards the United States
On the export side, the United States emerged as the fastest-growing destination, with export values rising 122.5% (from €169.0 million to €376.2 million). This made the US the largest single export market by 2025, overtaking Switzerland and the United Kingdom. Switzerland also grew strongly (+55.8%), while UK exports declined by 20.9%.
| Export partner | 2015 (€m) | 2025 (€m) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 169.0 | 376.2 | +122.5% |
| Switzerland | 213.7 | 332.8 | +55.8% |
| United Kingdom | 263.0 | 208.1 | −20.9% |
| Türkiye | 76.9 | 115.5 | +50.2% |
| Algeria | 32.8 | 54.2 | +65.5% |
| Mexico | 56.9 | 44.2 | −22.4% |
| Serbia | 27.5 | 35.1 | +27.6% |
Source: Top partners
Import concentration remained stable while export concentration increased
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration by value was essentially flat (1,455 in 2015 to 1,439 in 2025, −1.1%), suggesting a moderately diversified import base that did not become more or less concentrated. In contrast, export concentration rose by 37.9% (from 810 to 1,117), indicating that EU exports became more reliant on a smaller number of destination markets — principally the US and Switzerland.
3. Product-Mix Dynamics: Divergent Trends Across Subcategories
Backed foil (760720) imports grew strongly while backed foil exports declined
Breaking the trade data down by product subcategory reveals important structural shifts. Imports of backed foil (760720) nearly doubled in volume, rising from 31,943 tonnes to 62,237 tonnes. In contrast, exports of backed foil fell from 114,229 tonnes to 77,086 tonnes (−32.5%). This suggests that the EU is increasingly sourcing value-added, backed-foil products from third countries rather than producing and exporting them.
| Subcategory | Trade | 2015 volume (t) | 2025 volume (t) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 760711 – Not backed, rolled | Imports | 156,650 | 178,532 | +14.0% |
| 760711 – Not backed, rolled | Exports | 167,437 | 157,218 | −6.1% |
| 760720 – Backed | Imports | 31,943 | 62,237 | +94.8% |
| 760720 – Backed | Exports | 114,229 | 77,086 | −32.5% |
| 760719 – Not backed, further worked | Imports | 49,532 | 41,587 | −16.0% |
| 760719 – Not backed, further worked | Exports | 47,025 | 44,487 | −5.4% |
Un-backed, simply-rolled foil (760711) remains the dominant segment
The largest subcategory by volume in both trade flows is 760711 (aluminium foil not backed, rolled but not further worked). On the import side, it accounts for approximately 63% of volume in 2025; on the export side, approximately 56%. Its import volume grew by 14.0% while its export volume fell by 6.1%, contributing to the overall surplus erosion.
Unit prices diverge sharply across subcategories
The subcategories exhibit markedly different price levels. In 2025, further-worked un-backed foil (760719) commanded the highest unit prices — €7,231/t on the import side and €9,454/t on the export side — reflecting its higher value-added processing. Simply-rolled foil (760711) was the cheapest at €3,988/t (imports) and €4,422/t (exports). Backed foil (760720) occupied an intermediate position at €4,771/t (imports) and €7,823/t (exports). All subcategories experienced significant price inflation over the period, with the 2022 spike particularly visible: import prices for 760711 jumped from €3,325/t in 2021 to €4,803/t in 2022, a 44.5% increase in a single year.
The EU's specialisation pattern supports continued export capacity
Despite the erosion of the trade surplus, the EU retains a strong specialisation in aluminium foil production. The specialisation analysis shows Greece (RSCA: 0.867), Croatia (0.747), and Bulgaria (0.666) as the most specialised EU Member States in 2025, while Germany remains the largest exporter by absolute value (€637.3 million). Among the largest EU exporters, Spain showed the strongest growth (+96.8%), followed by Belgium (+85.9%) and Italy (+36.9%).
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU aluminium foil market transitioned from a position of comfortable trade surplus toward a more balanced — and at times strained — trade relationship with the rest of the world. The trade surplus contracted by 34.4%, driven by a combination of rising imports (+45.8% in value) and stagnating export volumes (−15.2%). While EU production continued to grow, it did not keep pace with import expansion, particularly from Türkiye, which more than doubled its shipments to the EU.
The 2022 energy crisis represented the single most disruptive event, triggering severe price shocks in EU–Türkiye trade and contributing to the surplus's trough at €196 million. The partial recovery in 2023–2025 reflects normalisation of energy markets, though structural shifts — including the growing import penetration of backed foil and the increasing export concentration on a few key markets — suggest that the EU's competitive position has fundamentally changed. The growing reliance on the United States as an export destination, while beneficial in the short term, also introduces new vulnerability should transatlantic trade conditions shift.