Market evolution: Aluminium foil (CN 760719) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of EU extra-EU trade in aluminium foil classified under Combined Nomenclature code 760719 — specifically, aluminium foil not backed, rolled and further worked, of a thickness of ≤ 0.2 mm — over the period 2015–2025. The data covers EU trade with non-EU countries, providing an annual view of export and import values, volumes, prices, partner structures, and market concentration.

The EU is a major global producer of aluminium foil, with domestic production rising from 943,031 tonnes in 2015 to an estimated 1,050,000 tonnes in 2025 (+11.3%), while production value grew by 33.1% to reach €5.0 billion. Against this domestic backdrop, extra-EU trade flows reveal three overarching narratives: a structural price inflation across both imports and exports that accelerated sharply from 2021 onward; a significant geographic reorientation of trade partnerships, notably the rapid rise of Asian suppliers and the post-Brexit contraction of UK flows; and a marked improvement in the EU's net trade position, with the bloc moving from a modest exporter to a more assertive one despite declining physical volumes.

1. Price-Led Growth: How Inflation Replaced Volume as the Primary Trade Driver

The most striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is that EU trade in aluminium foil grew in value while shrinking in volume. This pattern, common in aluminium markets, reflects the combined effects of rising raw material costs (linked to LME aluminium prices), energy cost pass-through (especially post-2021), and upstream supply disruptions.

1.1. Export value grew while export volumes contracted

Over the full period, EU exports of CN 760719 rose by 13.7% in value — from €370.1 million in 2015 to €420.6 million in 2025 — yet declined by 5.4% in volume, from 47,025 tonnes to 44,487 tonnes. The average export unit price increased by 20.1%, from €7,870/t to €9,454/t.

This divergence is evident across both product sub-segments:

The thinner foil segment (76071910), which is typically more technically demanding, commanded a consistently higher price premium and experienced greater price inflation — a pattern consistent with value-added product upgrading and tighter supply for ultra-thin gauges.

1.2. Import prices rose even more steeply, narrowing the cost gap

Import prices increased by 35.1% over the period — from €5,354/t in 2015 to €7,231/t in 2025 — outpacing the 20.1% rise in export prices. This suggests that the cost advantages previously enjoyed by non-EU suppliers (particularly from Asia) were partially eroded by global energy cost increases, logistics disruptions, and potentially by the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) preparations affecting aluminium-related flows.

The EU's export-to-import price ratio shifted accordingly:

The price spread narrowed sharply during the 2020–2022 crisis years, when import prices surged, then partially recovered by 2025 as EU exporters reasserted their premium positioning.

1.3. The 2022 energy-price shock left a lasting mark

The year 2022 was a clear inflection point. The volatility analysis detects multiple price shocks centered on 2022, particularly in EU exports to Mexico (abnormality score 14.0, +28.8% price shift), Ukraine (+51.3%), and the United Kingdom (+45.4%). These anomalies reflect the sharp spike in European energy costs following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which temporarily made EU-produced aluminium foil significantly more expensive relative to global alternatives. By 2025, prices had partially normalised but remained well above pre-2020 levels, suggesting a structural — not merely cyclical — price reset.

2. A Geographic Recalibration: The Rise of Asian Suppliers and the Erosion of Traditional Flows

Beneath the aggregate trade balance, the 2015–2025 period witnessed a substantial reshuffling of the EU's trade partners, driven by supply-chain diversification, Brexit, and the rapid industrialisation of Asian aluminium sectors.

2.1. China doubled its share of EU imports

The most dramatic partner shift occurred on the import side, where Chinese supplies nearly doubled in value — from €45.6 million in 2015 to €100.1 million (peak, in 2024) and €90.1 million in 2025, representing a 97.3% increase. China thus overtook Switzerland and Iceland to become the EU's single largest extra-EU supplier by value.

Other Asian suppliers emerged rapidly from negligible baselines:

Thailand's ascent from near-zero to €10.0 million and Malaysia's tripling to €16.5 million signal that EU importers have actively diversified away from concentrated European supply chains, likely seeking cost-competitive sources and hedging against single-source risk.

2.2. Post-Brexit, the UK–EU aluminium foil corridor contracted sharply

The United Kingdom's departure from the EU Single Market had a measurable impact on aluminium foil trade. EU imports from the UK fell by 53.4% — from €15.2 million in 2015 to €7.1 million in 2025. Meanwhile, EU exports to the UK declined by 34.7%, from €43.0 million to €28.1 million. The introduction of customs formalities, rules-of-origin requirements, and regulatory divergence likely added friction costs that suppressed trade volumes on both sides.

2.3. EU exports pivoted toward Switzerland, North Africa, and Türkiye

On the export side, Switzerland emerged as the EU's top export destination, with flows more than tripling from €32.0 million to €113.7 million (+255.1%). This may partly reflect re-export dynamics and Switzerland's role as a logistics and distribution hub.

Simultaneously, exports to southern and eastern Mediterranean partners grew strongly:

These patterns suggest that EU foil producers are increasingly serving fast-growing packaging and consumer-goods markets in North Africa and the broader Mediterranean basin.

2.4. Export concentration nearly doubled, signalling growing reliance on key destinations

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports by value rose from 541 in 2015 to 987 in 2025 — an 82.4% increase. While the level remains below the conventional "moderately concentrated" threshold of 1,500, the rapid increase indicates that EU export flows have become significantly more focused on a smaller number of destination markets, with Switzerland alone accounting for a growing share. Import concentration, by contrast, remained relatively stable (HHI rising marginally from 1,688 to 1,746, +3.4%), already in the moderately concentrated zone throughout the period.

3. A Strengthening Trade Surplus and Shifting Specialisation

Despite declining physical trade volumes, the EU's net position in aluminium foil trade improved meaningfully over the decade, reflecting both domestic production resilience and a gradual shift in the bloc's competitive profile.

3.1. The EU maintained and expanded a consistent trade surplus

The EU was a net exporter of CN 760719 throughout the entire period. The trade balance grew from €104.9 million in 2015 to €119.9 million in 2025 (+14.3%), peaking at €174.6 million in 2022. Net import reliance — defined as net imports divided by (production + net imports) — improved from −37.4% in 2015 to −10.7% in 2025 (a 71.4% reduction in the absolute value), indicating that while the EU remains a net exporter, the gap between its export and import volumes has narrowed in physical terms even as the value surplus has held.

3.2. Central and Eastern European producers emerged as specialised exporters

The specialisation analysis reveals a notable geographic shift in EU export capacity. In 2025, the most specialised exporters (by Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage, RSCA) were:

Croatia and Greece, though small in absolute terms, displayed extremely high relative specialisation, suggesting the emergence of niche, export-oriented foil producers. Germany remained the dominant exporter by absolute value (€172.5 million, accounting for roughly 41% of total EU extra-EU exports), followed by Italy (€69.0 million). Notably, Croatia's exports surged by 840.2% over the period (from €5.9 million to €55.9 million), and Spain's grew by 614.8%, pointing to a diversification of the EU's export base away from the traditional German-Italian-French triad.

3.3. Product mix data confirms the dominance of standard-gauge foil

Within CN 760719, the sub-segment 76071990 (thickness 0.021–0.2 mm) accounted for the bulk of both imports and exports throughout the period:

Import volumes for standard-gauge foil (76071990) fell by 21.8%, while those for ultra-thin foil (76071910) rose slightly (+8.4%). On the export side, the EU maintained a remarkably stable volume of standard-gauge exports (~30,700 tonnes) while ultra-thin exports declined from 16,088 to 13,815 tonnes (−14.1%). The EU thus holds a clear comparative advantage in ultra-thin foil exports — it exported 13,815 tonnes while importing only 10,213 tonnes in this high-value segment in 2025 — consistent with its technological capabilities in precision rolling.

Conclusion

The EU aluminium foil market (CN 760719) evolved significantly over 2015–2025, driven by three reinforcing dynamics. First, price inflation — not volume growth — was the primary engine of trade value expansion, with average unit prices rising 20–35% across both exports and imports, accelerating sharply after 2021 amid the global energy crisis. Second, the EU's geographic trade map was redrawn: Asian suppliers (China, Thailand, Malaysia) captured an increasing share of EU imports, while Switzerland, Türkiye, and North African markets absorbed a growing share of exports — trends partly catalysed by post-Brexit frictions that depressed UK–EU flows. Third, the EU consolidated its position as a net exporter, with the trade surplus reaching €120 million in 2025 and production growing to 1.05 million tonnes, while the bloc's export base diversified beyond the traditional German-Italian-French core to include fast-growing specialised producers in Croatia, Greece, and Spain.

Looking ahead, the structural rise in import prices — rising faster than export prices — may reduce the cost competitiveness of imported foil and support domestic production, particularly if the EU's CBAM framework begins to affect aluminium-related trade flows. However, the increasing concentration of EU exports in fewer destination markets (HHI rising 82% over the decade) introduces a vulnerability: any disruption to key partners such as Switzerland or Türkiye could disproportionately affect the EU's export performance.