Market evolution: Aluminium foil (CN 760711) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of EU aluminium foil (CN 760711) over the period 2015 to 2025. Drawing on available trade data, it examines the evolution of the EU's trade position, key market partners, price trends, and underlying production structure. The period is marked by significant shifts, particularly from 2022 onwards, which have reshaped the EU's role in global trade for this product.

1. The EU's Evolving Trade Position: From Net Exporter to Structural Importer

The EU's trade in aluminium foil underwent a fundamental transformation over the decade, shifting from a positive trade balance to a deficit. This reflects changes in cost competitiveness, trade flows, and industrial demand.

1.1 A deteriorating trade balance driven by stronger import growth

The EU's trade balance in aluminium foil turned from a surplus of €58.9 million in 2015 to a deficit of €14.9 million in 2025. This shift was caused by import value (+49.8%) growing much faster than export value (+30.5%) over the period. While the EU remained a large exporter, its import dependency deepened significantly.

1.2 The role of import quantity growth and new partners

Behind the value increase, import quantity grew by 14.0% to 178,532 tonnes in 2025. Notably, this occurred despite a sharp decline in volumes from China (the historical top importer). The gap was filled by soaring volumes from other partners, notably Türkiye, South Korea, and India, indicating a broadening of the EU's import base.

1.3 Declining net import reliance masks growing structural dependence

A key measure of autonomy, net import reliance, improved from -37.4% in 2015 to -10.7% in 2025 (negative indicates net exporter status). This seemingly positive trend, however, is misleading. It is largely a consequence of the EU's strong production base and rising domestic prices boosting the value of its exports more than the growth in import value. The underlying volume trend shows a more competitive and demanding import market.

2. Price Volatility and the 2022 Energy-Cost Shock

The period was characterized by overall price inflation, culminating in a dramatic price shock in 2022 that revealed vulnerabilities in the supply chain.

2.1 A long-term trend of rising unit values

Both import and export prices increased substantially from 2015 to 2025. Import prices rose by 31.4% (to €3,988/t), and export prices rose by 38.6% (to €4,422/t), indicating broader cost pressures and possibly a shift towards higher-value specialty foils.

2.2 The 2022 peak: A systemic shock to the market

The year 2022 stands out as an anomaly. Import prices hit a decade-high of €4,803/t, and export prices peaked at €4,769/t. This coincided with the global energy crisis following the invasion of Ukraine, which severely impacted the highly energy-intensive aluminium smelting and rolling process. The shock was transmitted globally, as shown by the massive price shifts detected for exports to key partners.

2.3 Increased partner volatility, especially from Asian suppliers

Volatility analysis shows that imports from newer Asian partners like India (Coefficient of Variation (CV)=1.03) and Thailand (CV=1.09) are highly volatile. This contrasts with more stable traditional European partners like Switzerland (CV=0.06) for exports, suggesting that supply from emerging sources is less predictable.

3. Market Concentration, Specialisation, and Production Shifts

The structure of the EU market shows distinct patterns of specialisation and a potential strategic pivot in production.

3.1 Import concentration remains stable; export concentration rises

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value remained stable at around 2,071–2,085, indicating a moderately concentrated import market. Conversely, the export HHI rose significantly from 1,254 to 2,032, pointing towards greater concentration on fewer destination markets.

3.2 A clear division of labour within the EU

Specialisation data for 2025 reveals a pronounced internal division. Greece (RSCA=0.90) and Bulgaria (0.80) are highly specialised net exporters of this foil, while large economies like Germany and Italy are major importers in absolute terms but with low specialisation ratios, indicating they use imported foil as a feedstock for downstream manufacturing.

3.3 Production appears to be shifting towards thicker foils

Analysis of product segments shows a telling trend. While total EU production volume grew by 11.3%, the composition seems to be changing. The share of the thinnest foils (CN 76071111, <0.021mm) in exports has declined in quantity, while thicker foils (CN 76071190) have gained share. This may reflect a competitive repositioning towards standard industrial applications rather than ultra-thin specialty foils, where Asian competition is strong.

Conclusion

The EU aluminium foil market over 2015-2025 has been defined by three overarching narratives. First, a structural shift from a net exporter to a net importer in value terms, with supply chains diversifying away from China towards Türkiye and other Asian producers. Second, the market endured a major price and volatility shock in 2022 due to the energy crisis, exposing its cost sensitivity. Third, internal specialisation has deepened, with production likely pivoting towards more mainstream industrial foil specifications. While the EU retains a massive production base, its growing import dependency and the recent shocks underscore ongoing challenges related to cost competitiveness and supply chain resilience.