Market evolution: Aluminium foil (CN 76071190) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in aluminium foil (CN 76071190) — rolled, not backed, thickness between 0.021 mm and 0.2 mm — over the period 2015 to 2025. The EU has remained a structural net exporter of this product throughout the decade, but the trade landscape has shifted considerably: prices surged during the 2022 energy crisis, the geographic composition of both imports and exports was reconfigured, and the EU's production base showed signs of both resilience and vulnerability. Drawing on trade overview data, partner-level flows, and volatility indicators, the report is organized around three main findings: the enduring but evolving surplus, the disruptive impact of 2022, and the reorientation of trade partnerships.

1. A Persistent Surplus Under Growing Import Pressure

The EU has maintained a positive trade balance in aluminium foil throughout 2015–2025. However, imports grew faster than exports in percentage terms, and several structural indicators point to a gradual narrowing of the EU's net exporter advantage when measured against its own production base.

1.1. Export growth was strong but price-driven

EU exports of CN 76071190 rose from €270.8 million in 2015 to €455.7 million in 2025, a gain of 68.3%. Over the same period, exported volumes grew only 17.2% (from 87,899 t to 103,013 t), meaning that the majority of the value increase was driven by rising unit values — export prices climbed from €3,080/t to €4,423/t (+43.6%). The trade overview confirms that export values peaked at €511.0 million in one year and volumes at 109,191 t, indicating that the 2025 figures, while strong, are below those peaks.

Source: Trade overview

1.2. Imports expanded even faster, compressing the surplus mid-period

Imports surged by 78.9% in value (from €129.1 million to €230.9 million) and by 43.0% in volume. Critically, the trade overview shows that the trade balance shrank to just €71.5 million at its lowest point — roughly half its 2015 level — before recovering to a record €224.8 million by 2025. This mid-period compression coincides with the 2022 global aluminium price spike (discussed in Section 2).

1.3. The EU's net exporter position eroded relative to production

According to the net import reliance indicator, the EU's net import reliance moved from −37.4% in 2015 to −10.7% in 2025 (negative values indicate a net exporter position). Although the EU remained a net exporter throughout, the metric reached −3.6% at its closest point to balance, reflecting the mid-period import surge. Meanwhile, EU production grew from 943,031 t to 1,050,000 t in quantity (+11.3%) and from €3.76 billion to €5.00 billion in value (+33.1%), but export propensity declined from 41.8% to 33.3%, suggesting that an increasing share of EU output is being absorbed domestically or traded intra-EU rather than exported to third countries.

Source: Vulnerability indicators

2. The 2022 Energy Crisis: A Price Shock That Reshaped the Market

The year 2022 stands out as the single most disruptive period in the decade under review. Aluminium smelting is among the most energy-intensive industrial processes, and the surge in European energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine rippled directly into the aluminium foil market, producing anomalous price movements and a dramatic import surge.

2.1. Prices reached historical highs across both flows

Export unit values peaked at €4,864/t and import unit values at €4,645/t — both well above the 2015 starting levels of around €3,100/t. Importantly, prices in 2025 had retreated from those peaks (exports at €4,423/t, imports at €3,988/t), suggesting a partial normalization, though they remained far above pre-crisis levels. The trade overview shows that the minimum unit values on both sides correspond to the earlier years of the period (around 2015–2016).

2.2. Three documented shock events were detected in 2022

The shock detection analysis identified three statistically abnormal price events, all centred on 2022:

The Canada export shock is exceptionally abnormal (score 18.2), indicating that the price increase on EU aluminium foil exports to Canada in 2022 was far beyond what any trend or seasonal pattern would predict. Norway's import shock — a 51.6% price jump — reflects the general tightening of primary aluminium supply, given Norway's role as a major aluminium-producing country (via Norsk Hydro and others) whose own energy costs also spiked.

2.3. Import volumes surged to record levels before retreating

The EU's import quantity reached a peak of 86,491 t — more than double the 2015 level of 40,498 t — before falling back to 57,901 t by 2025. This surge is consistent with EU-based converters seeking alternative supply as domestic smelter output became more expensive. The trade overview confirms that the trade balance troughed at €71.5 million in the same period — a 49.6% decline from 2015 — before recovering to its record level of €224.8 million by 2025.

2.4. Export volatility was generally low, but import-side partnerships proved unstable

On the export side, Switzerland was by far the most stable destination (coefficient of variation 0.059), reflecting deep structural integration, while Canada (CV 0.681) and Israel (CV 0.939) showed much higher variability. On the import side, the most volatile sources included Armenia (CV 1.389), South Africa (CV 1.407), and Thailand (CV 1.415) — all relatively small suppliers whose trade flows are episodic. Among major import partners, China (CV 0.456) and Malaysia (CV 0.527) were notably more volatile than Türkiye (CV 0.210), suggesting that Türkiye has become a more structural supply source.

3. A Reorientation of EU Aluminium Foil Trade Flows

Beyond the 2022 disruption, the decade saw a deeper structural reconfiguration of the EU's trading partners. Import sources shifted markedly — with Türkiye displacing China as the primary extra-EU supplier — while export destinations diversified, particularly towards North America. These changes are reflected in rising import-side concentration.

3.1. Türkiye emerged as the dominant import source, while China's role declined

The partner-level import data reveals a dramatic shift: Türkiye's exports of aluminium foil to the EU grew from €43.4 million in 2015 to €128.8 million in 2025 (+196.9%), making it by far the largest extra-EU supplier. China, which started at €36.3 million, peaked at €124.0 million before declining to €25.2 million — a 30.5% net decrease from its 2015 level. The timing of China's peak likely corresponds to the 2022 import surge. Malaysia, virtually absent in 2015 (€179,737), grew to €11.3 million by 2025, representing a new Asian supply route.

Source: Import partners

3.2. Export destinations shifted towards North America

The partner-level export data shows a significant reorientation. The United States became the EU's single largest export market by value in 2025 (€135.3 million, up 220.4% from €42.2 million), nearly matching Switzerland (€126.2 million). Canada grew even faster in relative terms (+267.0%, from €16.3 million to €59.7 million). The United Kingdom, historically a major destination, remained broadly flat (€53.7 million to €54.4 million, +1.4%), likely reflecting post-Brexit trade adjustment effects. Serbia (+165.3%) and Algeria (+65.3%) also registered notable growth.

Source: Export partners

3.3. Import concentration rose sharply

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration increased from 2,373 to 3,431 by value (+44.6%) and from 2,739 to 3,746 by volume (+36.7%). An HHI above 2,500 is generally considered to indicate a concentrated market; the EU's import side now falls firmly into this category, driven by Türkiye's dominant and growing share. By contrast, the export-side HHI remained lower, rising from 1,597 to 1,996 by value, indicating that EU exports are distributed across a broader set of destination markets.

3.4. Greece, Slovenia, and Sweden show the strongest export specialisation

The specialisation analysis for 2025 reveals that certain EU member states are strongly specialised in aluminium foil exports relative to their overall trade profiles:

Greece stands out with an RCA of 31.01 and a product share of 20.9% in its extra-EU exports, reflecting the importance of the aluminium foil sector (centred around companies such as Elval) in the Greek industrial base. Germany, while the largest exporter in absolute terms (€152.6 million), does not appear among the most specialised economies, reflecting its diversified export portfolio. At the other end, countries like Ireland (RSCA −0.99), Romania (RSCA −0.99), and Lithuania (RSCA −0.99) show negligible specialisation in this product.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU maintained a consistent surplus in aluminium foil trade, but the contours of that surplus shifted significantly. The most dramatic disruption came in 2022, when the energy crisis triggered record import volumes, price spikes of 50–68% on certain bilateral flows, and a temporary compression of the trade balance to €71.5 million — its lowest point in the decade. By 2025, the balance had recovered to a record €224.8 million, but the underlying structure of trade had changed: Türkiye consolidated its position as the EU's dominant import source (replacing China), North American markets absorbed a growing share of EU exports, and import-side concentration rose to levels indicating meaningful supplier dependency. Meanwhile, the EU's export propensity declined from 41.8% to 33.3%, suggesting that domestic and intra-EU demand is increasingly absorbing local production. The key risk going forward remains concentration on the import side — the HHI of 3,431, driven largely by Türkiye — which could expose EU consumers to supply-side disruptions should geopolitical or trade-policy conditions change.