Market evolution: Aluminium foil thin rolled (CN 76071119) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the trade dynamics of CN 76071119 — ultra-thin aluminium foil (thickness < 0.021 mm), not backed, rolled but not further worked — traded by the European Union with non-EU countries over the period 2015–2025. The product definition covers a specialised segment within the broader aluminium foil category (HS 7607), excluding stamping foils, Christmas decorations, and small consumer rolls ≤ 10 kg.

Over the decade, the EU's trade in this product underwent three significant shifts: a dramatic price-driven revaluation of trade flows against a backdrop of stagnating or declining physical volumes; a fundamental restructuring of the EU's import supply base, with China losing ground to Türkiye, South Korea, and India; and a growing concentration of EU export flows toward the United States, accompanied by a notable reshuffling of competitiveness among Member States. The EU's net import reliance also improved substantially, though the trade deficit in value terms widened.

1. Volume Compression Masked by Soaring Unit Values

The most striking macro-level feature of the 2015–2025 period is the divergence between value trends and physical volume trends. While trade values held relatively firm or even grew, underlying quantities contracted significantly — a pattern observable on both the import and export sides.

1.1 Import volumes held broadly steady while values surged by 30%

EU imports of CN 76071119 stood at 110,601 tonnes in 2015 and ended the period at 106,820 tonnes in 2025, a modest decline of −3.4% in volume. Over the same span, however, import value rose from €329 million to €427 million (+29.9%). This gap is explained by a steep climb in unit values: the average import price increased from €2,971/t to €3,996/t (+34.5%), with a peak at €4,862/t reached at some point during the period. The general trade overview shows that the volume minimum (104,582 t) was not far below the 2015 starting point, indicating that the EU's physical appetite for imported ultra-thin foil remained remarkably stable even as costs escalated.

1.2 Export volumes fell more sharply, declining by over a quarter

EU exports tell a more concerning story on the volume front. Starting at 61,426 tonnes in 2015, exports fell to 45,072 tonnes by 2025 — a drop of −26.6%. The minimum was reached at 41,777 tonnes, representing a trough well below the starting level. Yet export values barely budged in aggregate, moving from €198 million to €197 million (−0.5%). The explanation lies in an even steeper price increase on the export side: average export unit values rose from €3,225/t to €4,333/t (+34.4%), peaking at €4,621/t.

1.3 EU domestic production grew, partially explaining the volume dynamics

A key contextual factor is that EU domestic production of aluminium foil (mapped to PRODCOM 24.42.25.00) increased from 943 million kg to 1,050 million kg in quantity (+11.3%) and from €3.76 billion to €5.0 billion in value (+33.1%) over the same period. The growth in domestic output likely absorbed part of the demand that might otherwise have been met through imports or required exports, contributing to the relative volume stagnation in external trade. At the same time, the production value increase (+33.1%) closely mirrors the trade price inflation (~34%), suggesting that the entire aluminium foil value chain was subject to the same cost and pricing pressures — most probably linked to surging energy and raw material costs, particularly during the 2021–2022 energy crisis.

2. A Fundamental Reconfiguration of the EU's Import Supply Base

Beneath the headline aggregates, the composition of the EU's import sources changed profoundly between 2015 and 2025. China's dominance eroded sharply, while a set of new or previously marginal suppliers — notably Türkiye, South Korea, and India — gained substantial market share. This reshuffling coincided with a measurable decrease in import concentration.

2.1 China lost nearly half its EU market despite remaining the largest single supplier

In 2015, China was by far the EU's leading source of ultra-thin aluminium foil imports, accounting for €133 million — roughly 41% of total import value. By 2025, Chinese shipments had fallen to €74 million (−44.7%), and China's share of the top-partner import basket had declined commensurately. China also exhibited the highest volatility among major import sources, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 0.45 on import values. A notable price shock centred on 2022 saw Chinese import prices jump by +69.8% with an abnormality score of 8.0, likely reflecting the combined effects of China's own energy disruptions, shipping cost inflation, and possibly EU trade-defence measures targeting Chinese aluminium products.

2.2 Türkiye more than doubled its share and became the second-largest supplier

Turkish exports of CN 76071119 to the EU grew from €63 million to €141 million (+125.3%) over the decade, propelled by a price shock in 2022 of +70.8% (abnormality 5.5). Türkiye's rise reflects its geographical proximity, growing aluminium processing capacity, and possibly the re-routing of supply chains that previously transited through China. With a CV of only 0.13, Turkish supply was also notably more stable than that of most other third-country partners.

2.3 India's emergence was the most dramatic structural change

The most striking shift occurred with India, which moved from a negligible €2 million in 2015 to €53 million in 2025 — an increase of +2,458%. India's trajectory was extremely volatile, however, with a CV of 1.37 — the highest among all tracked import partners. A massive price shock in 2023 saw Indian export prices to the EU jump by +363.4% with an abnormality score of 24.1 — the most extreme event in the dataset. This volatility may reflect India's still-nascent role in this specialised product segment, with supply being opportunistic rather than structural.

2.4 South Korea consolidated a strong mid-tier position

South Korea grew from €23 million to €54 million (+134.9%), though its CV of 0.49 indicates moderate volatility. Together with Armenia (€44M → €59M, +35.2%, CV 0.17), Korea filled the middle tier of EU suppliers. Notably, the United Kingdom — once a meaningful partner at €5.4 million — collapsed to just €383,000 (−92.9%), consistent with post-Brexit trade friction.

2.5 Import concentration declined as supply diversified

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU import concentration by value fell from 2,383 to 1,926 (−19.2%). While both values indicate a moderately concentrated market (HHI > 1,500), the downward trend signals meaningful diversification. The HHI by volume showed a similar decline (2,415 → 1,940, −19.7%). This is a positive development for EU supply security, reducing dependence on any single origin.

3. Export Reorientation Toward the United States and Shifting Member-State Competitiveness

On the export side, the period saw a dramatic geographic reorientation of EU trade flows, a sharp increase in export concentration, and a significant reshuffling of competitive positions among EU Member States.

3.1 The United States became the EU's dominant export market

The most consequential change in EU export geography was the surge in shipments to the United States, which grew from €19 million to €98 million (+412.1%). At its peak, US-bound exports reached €155 million. With a CV of 0.50, US trade was moderately volatile but structurally far more important at the end of the period than at the start. This growth likely reflects strong US demand for specialised aluminium foil in packaging and electronics, combined with tariff-related trade diversion that favoured EU suppliers over Asian competitors in the US market.

In contrast, other major export destinations stagnated or contracted. Switzerland — the second-largest market — was essentially flat (€41M → €38M, −7.2%). Türkiye declined modestly (€27M → €23M, −17.2%), while the United Kingdom fell sharply (€18M → €7M, −62.5%), mirroring the pattern seen on the import side and pointing to post-Brexit trade disruption. Mexico collapsed from €23 million to just €1.6 million (−93.0%), one of the most dramatic contractions in the dataset.

3.2 Export concentration tripled, creating greater dependency risk

The HHI for EU export concentration by value surged from 1,035 to 3,033 (+193%) — a threefold increase that moved the export market from a competitive, diversified structure to a moderately concentrated one. By volume, the HHI rose even more sharply (1,029 → 3,348, +225%). This concentration is almost entirely attributable to the growing dominance of the US market. While this reflects successful market penetration, it also exposes EU exporters to significant single-market risk: any US policy change — tariff adjustments, anti-dumping measures, or demand contraction — could disproportionately affect EU foil producers.

3.3 Germany's export dominance eroded while Italy and Bulgaria gained ground

Among EU exporting Member States, Germany remained the largest exporter but saw its share decline significantly, from €140 million to €96 million (−31.3%). Italy, by contrast, nearly doubled its exports from €20 million to €38 million (+90.5%), while Bulgaria surged from €6 million to €21 million (+268.4%). These shifts suggest that production capacity and cost competitiveness were migrating within the EU — from Germany, where energy and labour costs are high, toward Southern and Eastern European Member States.

The specialisation data for 2025 confirms this pattern. Luxembourg (RSCA 0.88), Bulgaria (RSCA 0.85), and Greece (RSCA 0.83) are the most specialised EU exporters of this product, while large economies like the Netherlands (RSCA −0.99) and Hungary (RSCA −1.00) show negligible specialisation. Italy occupies a middle position with an RSCA of 0.31, consistent with its substantial but not dominant role.

3.4 The EU's net import reliance improved, but the trade deficit widened in value terms

The net import reliance metric improved markedly, moving from −37.4% to −10.7% (+71.4%), indicating that the EU became substantially less dependent on net imports over the decade. However, the trade deficit in value terms actually widened from €130 million to €230 million (−76.1%). This apparent paradox is resolved by the price dynamics: even though the EU was importing relatively less in volume terms and producing more domestically, the sharp increase in unit values inflated the monetary deficit.

Meanwhile, export propensity (exports as a share of production) declined from 41.8% to 33.3% (−20.3%), suggesting that a growing share of EU production was being absorbed domestically rather than exported. Trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) edged down from 49.2% to 46.1% (−6.4%), consistent with a broader trend of European supply-chain re-localisation in strategic materials.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in ultra-thin aluminium foil (CN 76071119) over 2015–2025 was shaped by three converging dynamics: persistent commodity-price inflation that inflated trade values while volumes stagnated or declined; a profound restructuring of the import supply base away from China and toward Türkiye, South Korea, and India; and a geographic reorientation of exports toward the United States that simultaneously boosted revenues and tripled export-market concentration.

The positive story is one of improved supply diversification on the import side (HHI declining) and strengthened domestic production capacity. The EU's net import reliance improved from −37% to −11%, and production grew by over 11% in volume. However, risks have accumulated on the export side: the growing dependence on the US market, the declining competitiveness of Germany as an exporting hub, and the persistently high volatility of newer suppliers like India all warrant attention.

Looking ahead, policymakers and industry stakeholders should monitor three developments: the sustainability of India's role given its extreme trade volatility; the potential for US trade policy shifts to disrupt the now heavily US-dependent EU export base; and whether the internal migration of export capacity toward Italy, Bulgaria, and Greece continues, reshaping the EU's industrial geography in this sector.