Market evolution: Unwrought aluminium (CN 7601) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the European Union's trade dynamics for unwrought aluminium (customs code 7601) over the period 2015 to 2025. The EU is a major consumer of this critical industrial metal but relies heavily on imports to meet its demand. The decade was characterized by significant volatility driven by global supply chain disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and energy price shocks. Despite a persistent and substantial trade deficit, the data reveals a story of gradual structural adaptation, marked by diversification of import sources, increased domestic production, and a notable decline in net import reliance, particularly in the latter half of the period.

1. A Persistent Structural Deficit with Shifting Reliance

The EU's unwrought aluminium market is defined by a large and consistent trade deficit, reflecting its status as a net importer. However, the magnitude of this deficit and the EU's underlying reliance on foreign supply have undergone significant evolution over the decade.

The Trade Balance Remains Deeply Negative

Throughout the period, the value of EU imports vastly exceeded that of exports, resulting in a substantial annual trade deficit. The deficit widened from approximately €9.5 billion in 2015 to over €15.4 billion in 2025, a 62.6% increase. While export values also grew, the pace was slower than that of imports, underscoring the structural nature of the imbalance.

A Dramatic Decline in Net Import Reliance

Despite the widening monetary deficit, a key indicator of strategic vulnerability—net import reliance as a percentage of apparent consumption—has fallen sharply. It decreased from a high of 83.1% in 2015 to a low of 47.9% before settling at 53.6% in 2025. This 35.5% reduction indicates a significant strengthening of the EU's domestic production capacity relative to its consumption needs.

The Role of Soaring EU Production

The decline in import reliance is directly tied to a massive expansion of EU production. Production volumes reported in the data show an extraordinary increase over the decade. This growth, likely driven by investments in recycling (secondary aluminium) and smelter capacity, has enabled the EU to meet a larger share of its own demand, buffering against external supply shocks.

2. Realignment and Diversification of Trade Partnerships

The period witnessed a major realignment in the EU's sources for unwrought aluminium imports and destinations for its exports, heavily influenced by geopolitics and shifting competitive advantages.

The Collapse of Russian Imports and Rise of New Suppliers

The most dramatic shift occurred in the import partnership structure. Imports from the Russian Federation fell by 65.4% in value, from €2.18 billion in 2015 to €0.75 billion in 2025, likely reflecting sanctions and voluntary diversification. This loss was offset by surging imports from other partners:

This diversification is quantified by the declining Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports, which fell by 34.1%, signifying a less concentrated and therefore less vulnerable import base.

Shifting Export Destinations

EU exports, while a fraction of imports, also showed reorientation. Traditional European partners saw declines, notably the United Kingdom (value down 83.8%). Meanwhile, exports to Japan surged by 552.9%, and shipments to Serbia and Türkiye grew strongly, indicating a search for new markets.

Intra-EU Specialisation

Within the EU, specialisation in aluminium production varies widely. Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Greece show high relative comparative advantage (RCA) in this sector, while countries like Lithuania and Finland have negligible export specialisation, highlighting the concentration of production activities across the bloc.

3. Price Volatility, Shocks, and Domestic Resilience

The aluminium market experienced extreme price volatility over the decade, with acute shocks testing the resilience of the EU's supply chains.

Extreme Price Swings in Global Trade

Unit prices for both imports and exports fluctuated dramatically. Import prices ranged from a low of €1,612/t to a high of €3,180/t, while export prices varied between €1,657/t and €3,187/t. The year 2022 marked a peak, coinciding with the global energy crisis and supply disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine, where prices nearly doubled from 2020 levels.

Detecting Significant Supply Shocks

The data analysis identifies several significant shock events, primarily price shocks in the export market during 2021. For instance, the price of EU exports to Brazil spiked abnormally, contributing to a reported 50.9% shift. These shocks highlight the volatility transmitted through the global aluminium trade network.

Volatility Varies Sharply by Partner

The coefficient of variation (CV) of trade values reveals that some partnerships are far more volatile than others. For imports, trade with Canada and India was highly unstable (CV > 0.7), while trade with Norway was exceptionally stable (CV of 0.05). For exports, flows to the United Kingdom and China were highly volatile. The diversification of import partners, therefore, serves as a stabilising mechanism.

Building Resilience Through Domestic Capacity

The convergence of trends—soaring production, diversified sourcing, and falling import reliance—suggests that the EU has built greater resilience into its unwrought aluminium supply chain over the decade. While it remains a massive net importer, the structural shift reduces its acute vulnerability to disruptions from any single major supplier.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in unwrought aluminium has been transformed from a position of high import reliance on a concentrated set of partners towards a more balanced and resilient structure. The persistent trade deficit, though larger in nominal terms, masks a strategic improvement: the EU has significantly boosted domestic production and actively diversified its import sources, most notably in response to geopolitical sanctions. While the market remains susceptible to global price shocks, the data indicates that the EU has undertaken tangible steps to fortify its position in this critical industrial supply chain. The future will depend on continued investment in domestic capacity and the stability of the newly forged trade relationships.