Market evolution: Primary aluminium (CN 760110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyses the trade dynamics of primary unwrought non-alloyed aluminium (CN 760110) for the European Union between 2015 and 2025. The period was characterized by a significant expansion in the value of imports, a diversification of supply sources away from traditional partners, and a sustained high dependency on external supplies. Domestic production declined in volume, while export activities remained marginal and volatile. The analysis is based on the provided trade, production, and concentration data.

The Deepening Trade Deficit and Surging Import Values

The EU's trade deficit for primary aluminium widened substantially over the decade, driven almost entirely by a sharp increase in the value of imports. This section examines the aggregate trade flow evolution.

The widening gap between import and export values

The trade deficit in value terms grew from -4.69 billion EUR in 2015 to -7.88 billion EUR in 2025, a deterioration of 68.1%. This was primarily due to the surge in import values, which rose by 66.7% from 4.77 billion EUR to 7.96 billion EUR. In contrast, the value of exports fell by 10.6%.

Volumetric growth lagged behind value growth

While import values grew by nearly two-thirds, the quantity imported increased by a more modest 20.0%, from 2.66 million tonnes to 3.19 million tonnes. This indicates a significant price effect, with import unit prices rising by 38.8% over the period. Export volumes contracted sharply by 28.7%.

The EU's structural dependency remained pronounced

The net import reliance remained consistently high throughout the period, fluctuating between 75.2% and 92.4%, and standing at 83.9% in 2025. This underscores that the EU's internal consumption is fundamentally dependent on imported primary aluminium.

Diversification of Supply and Shifting Partner Landscapes

A major structural shift occurred in the EU's sourcing strategy, moving away from concentration on a few suppliers towards a more diversified, albeit still volatile, import base.

A decisive move away from Russian aluminium

Imports from the Russian Federation, the leading supplier in 2015, collapsed by 77.7% in value terms, falling from 1.75 billion EUR to 390 million EUR. This likely reflects geopolitical sanctions and deliberate supply chain reorientation.

The rise of new major suppliers

Conversely, several suppliers experienced dramatic growth. The most notable are:

Source: Top partners by value

This diversification is further evidenced by the decline in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration, which fell by 60.3% from 2462 to 978, indicating a much less concentrated supplier market.

Export markets remained niche and unstable

EU exports of primary aluminium were small and highly volatile. The United Kingdom, once the largest export destination, saw trade collapse by 93.5%. The Netherlands remained the top EU exporter member state, but its export value fluctuated significantly.

Volatility, Price Shocks, and Domestic Production Challenges

The market experienced significant price volatility and distinct supply shocks, against a backdrop of declining domestic production volumes.

High volatility characterised key trading relationships

The coefficient of variation (CV) was extremely high for several partners, indicating unstable trade flows. For exports, flows to the United States (CV=1.87), Malaysia (CV=1.86), and Norway (CV=1.44) were exceptionally volatile.

Notable price shocks impacted the market

The data highlights several price shock events:

• 2021-01-01 (Exports to Norway): A massive price shock with an abnormality score of 84.7 and a 40.6% price shift, coinciding with the global post-pandemic commodity surge.
• 2023-01-01 (Exports to the United States): An extraordinary 549.1% price shift, potentially linked to specific tariff or trade policy dynamics.
• 2022-01-01 (Imports from Mozambique): A 66.0% price shift, reflecting broader inflationary pressures in global energy and commodity markets.

EU domestic production in secular decline

Despite high import reliance, EU domestic production volume declined by 49.2% over the decade, from 590 million kg (2015) to 300 million kg (2025). Production value, however, rose by 7.1%, suggesting a shift towards higher-value products or simply the effect of higher aluminium prices. The Netherlands and Italy were the most specialised EU member states in this product, while many others had negligible domestic output.

Conclusion

Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's primary aluminium market became more import-dependent in value terms and fundamentally restructured its supply chains. The period was marked by a strategic pivot away from Russian supplies towards a more diversified set of sources including Iceland, Canada, India, and Mozambique. This diversification reduced supplier concentration but did not alleviate the region's high overall import dependency. Concurrently, domestic production capacity declined, further entrenching external reliance. The market was also characterized by significant price volatility and distinct shock events, underscoring the vulnerability of the EU's industrial base to global commodity market and geopolitical fluctuations. The challenge for EU trade and industrial policy remains ensuring a stable, affordable, and diversified supply of this critical raw material.