Market evolution: Aluminium wire (CN 7605) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of EU trade in aluminium wire (Combined Nomenclature code 7605) between 2015 and 2025. The product category excludes stranded wire, cables, electrically insulated wires, and musical strings. The period was characterized by significant price volatility, major shifts in supply chains, and a growing structural dependence on imports. The analysis is based on year-on-year data for trade with non-EU countries, with a focus on volume, value, pricing, and partner concentration.
A Tale of Diverging Trends: Volume Compression vs. Value Expansion
The EU's trade in aluminium wire over the decade reveals a clear divergence between physical quantities traded and their monetary value, driven predominantly by price inflation.
Import Volume Growth Masked by Soaring Values
While EU import volumes grew moderately, their value surged dramatically.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Import Quantity (t) | 276,491 | 348,320 | +26.0% |
| Import Value (EUR) | 578.6 M | 1,025.9 M | +77.3% |
| Import Price (EUR/t) | 2,093 | 2,945 | +40.7% |
The value of imports nearly doubled, far outpacing the 26% increase in volume. This points to a sustained period of rising global aluminium prices, with a particularly sharp spike in 2022 where the average import price peaked at €3,321/t, as reflected in price shock events.
Export Volumes Contracted Despite Higher Values
The EU's export profile tells a different story, with physical volumes declining significantly.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export Quantity (t) | 59,554 | 48,213 | -19.0% |
| Export Value (EUR) | 184.4 M | 213.1 M | +15.5% |
| Export Price (EUR/t) | 3,096 | 4,419 | +42.7% |
Despite a 19% drop in exported tonnes, the total value increased by 15.5% due to a 43% rise in export unit values. This indicates a loss in the EU's competitive position on volume, or a strategic shift towards higher-value wire segments, as the trade deficit in value terms more than doubled from €394 million to €813 million.
Geopolitical Reconfiguration of Supply Chains
The period saw a dramatic reshuffling of the EU's top import sources, largely driven by geopolitical events and the development of new production hubs.
The Decline of Russian Supplies and the Rise of New Partners
The most striking shift occurred in the import partnership structure.
- Collapse of Russian Trade: Imports from Russia fell from €123.6 M (2015) to just €16.0 M (2025), a decrease of 87%. This decline accelerated after 2021, aligning with the imposition of sanctions following the invasion of Ukraine.
- Surge from Mozambique and Malaysia: To fill the void, imports from Mozambique and Malaysia exploded. Mozambique grew from €7.1 M to €129.8 M (+1,731%), while Malaysia grew from a negligible €40k to €71.7 M. These countries represent the emergence of new smelting capacity outside of the traditional Russian and European supply circles.
- Stability from Nordic and Mediterranean Sources: Traditional suppliers like Iceland (€201.8 M, +42%) and Norway (€175.9 M, +60%) remained robust, benefiting from stable energy sources. Türkiye also maintained a significant, though volatile, share.
Increased Geographic Diversification of Import Sources
The concentration of EU imports (Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for value) decreased from 1,626 to 1,108, indicating a diversification away from a few dominant suppliers (like Russia) towards a broader set of partners. This reduced single-point dependency but introduced new logistical and political risks.
EU Market Vulnerability and Internal Production Stress
The EU's internal production capacity weakened, increasing its reliance on imports and highlighting vulnerabilities in its industrial base.
A Structural Decline in Domestic Production
EU production data reveals a severe contraction, particularly in volume.
| Metric | First Year Reported | Last Year Reported | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Production Quantity (kg) | 350.2 M | 160.0 M | -54.3% |
| Production Value (EUR) | 963.9 M | 1,010.0 M | +4.8% |
Halving of production volume coupled with a modest value increase suggests significant production cuts, likely due to high energy costs, with remaining capacity focusing on higher-margin products. This internal weakness is a key driver of the increased import reliance.
Growing Import Reliance and Trade Openness
The EU's net import reliance as a percentage of apparent consumption grew from 30.1% to 39.8%, peaking at over 52% in 2022. Concurrently, the trade intensity (the sum of exports and imports as a share of production) remained high, around 57.6%, indicating that the EU market is deeply integrated into global flows. This combination of high reliance and high intensity makes the sector sensitive to international supply disruptions and price shocks, as witnessed in 2022.
Conclusion
Between 2015 and 2025, the EU's aluminium wire market transformed. It became more expensive, more reliant on imports, and saw its supply map redrawn following the geopolitical rupture with Russia. While the EU successfully diversified its supplier base, this came alongside a worrying decline in domestic production capacity. The market's key dynamics—price-driven value growth, strategic supplier shifts, and increased vulnerability—suggest a sector adapting to global realities but with growing exposure to external economic and geopolitical pressures. The future will likely be shaped by energy policy, efforts to reshore critical materials, and the evolution of global aluminium production hubs.