Market evolution: Aluminium pipes and tubes (CN 7608) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of EU extra-EU trade in aluminium tubes and pipes (excluding hollow profiles), classified under Combined Nomenclature code 7608. The product category covers two sub-headings: non-alloy aluminium tubes and pipes (760810) and aluminium alloy tubes and pipes (760820). Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU aluminium tube and pipe sector experienced significant structural shifts: a strengthening trade surplus driven by rising export unit values, a marked reorientation of sourcing origins, and a contraction in domestic production volumes. Total EU exports rose in value from €231.7 million to €279.9 million, while imports remained broadly flat at around €185.5 million, widening the trade surplus from €44.3 million to €94.4 million (General Overview).
1. From Volume-Led Growth to a Price-Driven Surplus
1.1 Export values climbed while volumes stagnated
EU exports of CN 7608 grew by 20.8% in value over the period, reaching €279.9 million in 2025 — the highest level observed. However, export volumes barely moved, declining marginally from 29,470 tonnes to 28,714 tonnes (−2.6%). The entire value gain is therefore attributable to rising unit prices, which climbed from €7,861/t to €9,745/t (+24.0%). This pattern is consistent with a broader shift toward higher-value-added alloy tubes, as well as the pass-through of elevated raw material and energy costs that characterised the post-2021 period.
1.2 Import volumes contracted sharply while prices surged
On the import side, the picture is even more striking. Import value edged down by just 1.0% (from €187.4 million to €185.5 million), but import volumes fell by 27.9% — from 40,733 tonnes to only 29,378 tonnes. The unit import price consequently jumped from €4,599/t to €6,313/t (+37.3%). The combination of falling volumes and rising prices suggests both a structural reduction in import demand and the impact of global cost inflation on supply chains.
1.3 The EU's trade surplus more than doubled
As a result of these divergent dynamics, the EU's trade balance in aluminium tubes and pipes improved from a surplus of €44.3 million in 2015 to €94.4 million in 2025 — a gain of 112.9%. The net import reliance indicator confirms this trend, shifting from −3.0% in 2015 (a modest net-exporter position) to −9.9% in 2025, its most negative value in the series. The EU has become meaningfully more self-sufficient in this product category.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export value (€M) | 231.7 | 279.9 | +20.8% |
| Export volume (t) | 29,470 | 28,714 | −2.6% |
| Export unit price (€/t) | 7,861 | 9,745 | +24.0% |
| Import value (€M) | 187.4 | 185.5 | −1.0% |
| Import volume (t) | 40,733 | 29,378 | −27.9% |
| Import unit price (€/t) | 4,599 | 6,313 | +37.3% |
| Trade balance (€M) | 44.3 | 94.4 | +112.9% |
2. A Rapidly Reorganising Map of Trading Partners
2.1 Russia and South Africa collapsed as import sources
The most dramatic changes on the import side concern the disappearance of two formerly significant suppliers. Imports from Russia fell from €8.4 million to just €0.2 million (−97.6%), a near-total collapse that aligns with the EU sanctions regime imposed following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Imports from South Africa plunged from €37.7 million to €7.9 million (−79.2%), a decline that began well before 2022 and likely reflects shifting competitive dynamics and logistics costs. Switzerland also saw a substantial decline, from €23.9 million to €12.7 million (−46.8%).
2.2 Türkiye emerged as the EU's largest import supplier
In contrast, Türkiye's exports to the EU more than doubled from €24.4 million to €52.0 million (+112.9%), making it the single largest extra-EU supplier by 2025 — overtaking China. This growth reflects Türkiye's geographical proximity, competitive labour costs, and its integration into European industrial supply chains. Two additional suppliers registered extraordinary growth from low bases: Egypt surged from €0.07 million to €8.2 million (+11,482%), and Serbia rose from €1.1 million to €9.9 million (+795.5%). These shifts indicate a diversification of EU sourcing away from traditional suppliers.
| Import partner | 2015 (€M) | 2025 (€M) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 24.4 | 52.0 | +112.9% |
| China | 46.5 | 32.9 | −29.4% |
| Switzerland | 23.9 | 12.7 | −46.8% |
| South Africa | 37.7 | 7.9 | −79.2% |
| Serbia | 1.1 | 9.9 | +795.5% |
| Egypt | 0.07 | 8.2 | +11,482% |
| Russian Federation | 8.4 | 0.2 | −97.6% |
2.3 Export destinations shifted toward the US, Norway, and Mexico
On the export side, the United States consolidated its position as the EU's largest destination, growing from €49.2 million to €72.4 million (+47.2%). Norway registered the most explosive growth among top partners, rising from €4.7 million to €21.4 million (+353.1%). Mexico also expanded strongly, from €6.7 million to €15.8 million (+135.6%). The United Kingdom, historically the second-largest destination, declined from €38.5 million to €30.2 million (−21.7%), a trend likely linked to post-Brexit trade friction. Switzerland and Türkiye remained steady mid-range partners, each around €19–22 million (top partners).
2.4 Concentration remained moderate but shifted on the import side
The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index for import value declined from 1,485 to 1,390 (−6.4%), indicating a modest diversification of suppliers — consistent with the entry of new sources such as Egypt and Serbia. Export concentration, by contrast, remained essentially unchanged (HHI of 1,033 to 1,053), reflecting stable destination markets.
3. Domestic Production Decline Amid Structural Repositioning
3.1 EU production volumes contracted by nearly 30%
EU production volumes of aluminium tubes and pipes fell from 217,299 tonnes in 2015 to 153,586 tonnes in 2025 (−29.3%). Production value declined more moderately, from €938.8 million to approximately €800 million (−14.8%). The gap between the volume and value declines implies a significant rise in average production values per kilogram, consistent with a mix shift toward higher-value alloy products and general cost inflation.
3.2 Non-alloy tubes collapsed in trade; alloy tubes dominate
The product segment data reveals a clear structural shift. In imports, non-alloy tubes (760810) saw their volumes collapse from 9,694 tonnes to just 2,011 tonnes (−79.2%), while alloy tubes (760820) fell more moderately from 31,039 tonnes to 27,367 tonnes (−11.8%). By 2025, alloy tubes accounted for 93.1% of import volumes, up from 76.2% in 2015. On the export side, alloy tubes already dominated in 2015 (92.2% of volume) and maintained their share at 92.9% in 2025, with volumes broadly stable around 26,666 tonnes. Non-alloy export volumes fluctuated between 1,579 and 3,211 tonnes with no clear trend.
3.3 The EU increasingly specialised in higher-value alloy products
Export unit prices for alloy tubes reached €9,862/t in 2025, well above the import price of €6,282/t — a premium of 57%. This persistent price gap indicates that the EU's competitive advantage lies in higher-specification alloy products, likely destined for demanding end-use sectors such as automotive, aerospace, and industrial machinery. The export propensity rose from 20.0% to 30.7% (+53.4%), confirming that an increasing share of EU production is directed to external markets. Among EU member states, Denmark (RCA 6.61), Greece (6.48), and Bulgaria (6.09) displayed the strongest revealed comparative advantage, while Germany remained by far the largest exporter with €118.9 million in 2025, though down from €127.9 million in 2015 (reporters).
3.4 Price shocks in 2022 reflected the energy and geopolitical crisis
The volatility analysis detected significant price shocks centred on 2022. The most extreme was a 67.2% price shift in EU exports to Serbia, with an abnormality score of 71.4. Import prices from Türkiye jumped by 34.5% (abnormality 10.2), and import prices from Russia surged 54.2% (abnormality 7.0) — the latter occurring just before the near-complete cessation of trade. These shocks are consistent with the 2022 global energy crisis and the immediate economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, which simultaneously raised aluminium production costs and disrupted established trade flows.
Conclusion
Over the decade to 2025, the EU aluminium tubes and pipes market underwent a fundamental transformation. The bloc shifted from a position of modest net self-sufficiency to a clear net-exporter status, with the trade surplus more than doubling to €94.4 million. This improvement, however, was driven entirely by price dynamics rather than volume growth: export volumes were essentially flat, and EU domestic production declined by nearly 30%. The import landscape was profoundly reshaped by geopolitical events, most notably the near-total loss of Russian supply and the rapid rise of Türkiye as the dominant supplier. On the export side, the EU consolidated its position in high-value alloy tubes, commanding a 57% price premium over import prices and directing an increasing share of output to the US, Norway, and Mexico. Looking ahead, the sector's reliance on higher unit values rather than expanding volumes suggests that competitive advantage will continue to concentrate in specialised, high-specification aluminium alloy products, while commodity-grade non-alloy tubes increasingly become the domain of lower-cost external suppliers.