Market evolution: Aluminium extrusions (CN 7604) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in aluminium bars, rods and profiles (Combined Nomenclature code 7604) over the period 2015–2025. CN 7604 is a bundling heading that encompasses three sub-categories: non-alloy aluminium bars, rods and profiles (760410); hollow profiles of aluminium alloys (760421); and solid bars, rods and profiles of aluminium alloys (760429). The product is widely used in construction, transport, and industrial applications, making it a meaningful indicator of both manufacturing activity and downstream demand in the EU economy.

Over the decade under review, the EU's trade in this product category was shaped by three major dynamics: a pronounced divergence between value growth and volume growth, a dramatic reorientation of import sourcing away from China and Russia towards Türkiye, and a gradual erosion of the EU's net exporter position. The period also witnessed a severe price shock in 2022 linked to the European energy crisis, which reverberated through both import and export flows.

1. Prices Drive Value Growth While Volumes Stagnate

Export values rose 40% on the back of price increases, not volume expansion

Between 2015 and 2025, the value of EU exports of CN 7604 rose from €1.44 billion to €2.02 billion, a gain of 40.2%. Over the same period, however, export volumes increased by only 8.5%, from 284,000 tonnes to 308,000 tonnes. The entire value increase is therefore attributable to higher unit prices, which climbed 29.2% from €5,081/t to €6,565/t.

This pattern — price-led growth against a backdrop of sluggish volume — suggests that the EU's aluminium extrusions sector has not meaningfully expanded its physical market share abroad but has benefited from the general rise in aluminium-related costs and selling prices over the decade.

Import volumes actually declined while values surged even more sharply

On the import side, the contrast is even starker. Import values rose 52.9%, from €1.31 billion to €2.00 billion, yet import volumes fell by 2.8%, from 399,000 tonnes to 388,000 tonnes. The entire value increase is thus explained by a 57.3% rise in import unit prices, from €3,269/t to €5,141/t.

The fact that import prices rose nearly twice as fast as export prices (+57.3% vs. +29.2%) is noteworthy. It partly reflects the changing composition of import origins — with supplies increasingly sourced from countries offering higher-value-added or more processed products — but also the general inflationary environment in aluminium markets since 2021.

The 2022 energy crisis triggered the sharpest price shock of the decade

The most dramatic single-year event was the price shock of 2022, when European smelters faced soaring energy costs and the London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium price spiked. EU export prices leapt to €7,119/t that year — the highest level in the entire period — while import prices reached €5,272/t. The shock was most pronounced in exports to the United Kingdom (price abnormality of 8.6, a 41.1% shift), Norway (abnormality 16.4, +37.2%), and Morocco (abnormality 10.6, +40.0%). These three markets collectively accounted for over 43% of EU export value in that year.

Prices have since partially retraced: by 2025, export prices stood at €6,565/t and import prices at €5,141/t, both below their 2022 peaks but well above pre-2021 levels. The episode highlighted the EU's vulnerability to energy-driven cost shocks in aluminium-intensive supply chains.

2. The Great Reshuffling: Türkiye Displaces China and Russia as the EU's Dominant Import Source

Türkiye became the EU's largest supplier of aluminium extrusions, tripling its share

The most striking structural shift in the decade was the reorientation of EU import sourcing. In 2015, Türkiye was already the largest single supplier at €276 million, but by 2025 its shipments had surged to €955 million — a 245% increase. At its peak in 2022, Turkish imports reached €1.37 billion. Türkiye's rise reflects a combination of factors: competitive labour and energy costs, geographical proximity to the EU, a rapidly expanding aluminium extrusion industry, and favourable customs arrangements under the EU–Turkey customs union.

Chinese imports collapsed following anti-dumping measures

China was the second-largest supplier in 2015 at €264 million. By 2025, Chinese imports had fallen to €114 million, a decline of 57%. This sharp contraction is consistent with the EU's anti-dumping investigation and the imposition of definitive anti-dumping duties on aluminium extrusions originating in China (Regulation (EU) 2021/1930, with duties of 21.2–32.1%). The duties made Chinese product significantly less price-competitive and redirected sourcing towards other origins.

Russian imports fell to near zero following sanctions

Imports from Russia declined from €79 million in 2015 to virtually nothing by 2025, a fall of 100%. The collapse accelerated after 2022, when the EU imposed successive rounds of sanctions on Russian aluminium producers following the invasion of Ukraine. The volatility coefficient for Russian imports (0.59) was among the highest of all partners, reflecting the abrupt nature of the supply disruption rather than gradual market adjustment.

Import concentration doubled, signalling reduced supplier diversity

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for EU imports by value more than doubled from 1,439 in 2015 to 2,927 in 2025 — an increase of 103%. By volume, the HHI rose from 1,481 to 3,281 (+122%). In standard competition analysis, an HHI below 1,500 indicates an unconcentrated market; above 2,500 indicates high concentration. The EU's import market for aluminium extrusions has thus moved from a relatively diversified sourcing base to a highly concentrated one, dominated by Türkiye.

This concentration poses a strategic risk: should supply from Türkiye be disrupted — by trade policy changes, natural disasters, or geopolitical events — the EU would face a significant supply gap with few immediate alternatives of comparable scale.

3. Shrinking Surplus and Growing Strategic Exposure

The EU's trade balance in aluminium extrusions has narrowed dramatically

The EU entered the period as a net exporter of aluminium extrusions, recording a trade surplus of €138 million in 2015. By 2025, the surplus had shrunk to just €27 million — a decline of 80%. In some intermediate years, particularly during the post-COVID import surge of 2021–2022, the EU actually registered a deficit (the balance dipped to −€627 million in 2022).

The 2022 deficit was a watershed moment: for the first time in the decade, the EU imported more (in value) than it exported, driven by the confluence of soaring import prices, elevated energy costs eroding export competitiveness, and strong domestic demand. The partial recovery in 2023–2025 reflects both the normalisation of energy prices and the EU's continued strong export performance to the UK, Switzerland, and the US.

Net import reliance metrics confirm a structural shift

The net import reliance indicator — which measures net imports as a share of apparent consumption (production + imports − exports) — moved from −2.5% in 2015 to −1.0% in 2025 (the negative sign indicates a net exporter position). The metric briefly turned positive during the 2021–2022 period, confirming that the EU temporarily became a net importer. While the EU has since reverted to a marginal net exporter status, the long-term trend points towards convergence with import parity.

Trade intensity — the ratio of total trade (imports + exports) to production value — rose from 17.8% to 23.1% (+29.8%), while export propensity — exports as a share of production — increased from 10.9% to 13.5% (+24.1%). Both metrics indicate that the EU's aluminium extrusions sector has become more integrated into global trade flows over the decade, with both inbound and outbound trade growing faster than domestic production.

EU production grew in value but the segment mix reveals a hollow profile boom

EU production of CN 7604 increased from 3.00 billion kg to 3.41 billion kg by quantity (+13.8%) and from €10.6 billion to €15.4 billion by value (+45.4%) over the period. The faster value growth again reflects the price inflationary environment.

Within the product mix, sub-segment analysis reveals that hollow profiles of aluminium alloys (760421) saw the most dynamic import growth: volumes rose from 60,750 tonnes to 139,527 tonnes (+129%), making it the fastest-growing sub-category. This likely reflects the strong demand from the construction and automotive sectors for complex extruded shapes. By contrast, imports of solid alloy profiles (760429), the largest sub-category by volume, actually declined from 313,924 tonnes to 229,957 tonnes (−27%), consistent with the impact of anti-dumping duties on Chinese product, which was predominantly in this segment.

On the export side, solid alloy profiles (760429) remained the dominant sub-category, with volumes rising from 183,602 tonnes to 207,908 tonnes (+13%). Export volumes of hollow profiles also grew, from 71,563 tonnes to 81,493 tonnes (+14%).

EU internal specialisation is concentrated in Southern and Eastern Europe

Looking at revealed comparative advantage, the most specialised EU Member States in aluminium extrusions exports in 2025 were Greece (RSCA: 0.73), Slovenia (0.55), Romania (0.45), Spain (0.41), and Bulgaria (0.39). These countries benefit from a combination of lower energy and labour costs, proximity to raw material sources, and established extrusion industries serving both domestic and export markets. At the other end of the spectrum, Malta, Ireland, Latvia, Cyprus, and Estonia showed strongly negative specialisation indices, indicating that they are net importers of the product with negligible export capacity.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in aluminium extrusions over 2015–2025 has been characterised by three overarching trends: price-driven value growth against a backdrop of stagnant volumes, a dramatic reorientation of import supply chains with Türkiye emerging as the overwhelmingly dominant supplier, and a progressive narrowing of the EU's trade surplus to the point of near-parity.

The concentration of import sourcing in Türkiye — reflected in the doubling of the import HHI to nearly 3,000 — is perhaps the most consequential structural development. While Türkiye's rise has partially offset the decline of Chinese and Russian supplies (the former due to anti-dumping duties, the latter due to sanctions), it has also created a new single-point-of-dependence that warrants monitoring from a supply security perspective.

The 2022 energy crisis served as a stress test, temporarily pushing the EU into a net import deficit and triggering severe price dislocations in key export markets. The subsequent partial normalisation of prices and trade balances suggests that the EU's aluminium extrusions sector retains resilience, but the underlying trend towards greater import reliance and higher trade concentration implies that future shocks — whether geopolitical, energy-related, or commercial — could have more pronounced effects than they would have a decade ago.