Market evolution: Zinc and articles (CN 79) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the evolution of the European Union's external trade in zinc and articles thereof (Customs Code 79) over the period 2015 to 2025. Drawing on trade flow data, partner concentration metrics, and production indicators, it identifies a profound transformation in the EU's position within the global zinc market. The EU has transitioned from a net importer reliant on specific external suppliers to a significant net exporter with a more diversified but consolidated export base. This structural shift is underpinned by robust domestic production growth and a strategic reorientation of trade partnerships. The report details the key dynamics behind this evolution.
1. A Structural Shift: From Net Importer to Net Exporter
The most significant trend over the decade is the reversal of the EU's trade balance for zinc products. Starting as a modest net importer, the bloc moved to a strong net export position, fundamentally altering its market vulnerability.
The trade balance flipped from a deficit to a substantial surplus.
In 2015, the EU had a positive trade balance of €212.8 million in zinc products. After a period of volatility, which included a low point of -€383.6 million in 2019, the balance surged, reaching €841.2 million in 2025. This 295.2% increase over the period underscores a dramatic improvement in the EU's trade competitiveness in this sector.
Export growth vastly outpaced import growth, driven by value rather than volume.
Over the period, the value of EU zinc exports grew by 72.9% to €1.74 billion, while import value grew by only 13.4% to €901.9 million. Crucially, this export growth was primarily value-driven: export volumes increased by 25.9%, whereas import volumes fell by 23.0%. This indicates that the EU is exporting more high-value zinc products (like articles and processed forms) and importing less raw material in volume terms.
Rising unit prices amplified trade values for both flows, but especially for exports.
Global zinc prices increased over the decade. The EU's average export price rose by 37.2% to €2,858 per tonne, while its average import price rose more sharply by 47.3% to €3,424 per tonne. The higher import price, coupled with falling volumes, suggests a strategic shift in the composition of imports, potentially towards higher-grade or more specialized inputs.
| Indicator | 2015 | 2025 | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export Value (EUR) | 1,008,423,377 | 1,743,148,342 | +72.9% |
| Import Value (EUR) | 795,583,996 | 901,948,547 | +13.4% |
| Trade Balance (EUR) | 212,839,381 | 841,199,795 | +295.2% |
| Export Volume (t) | 484,326 | 609,950 | +25.9% |
| Import Volume (t) | 342,073 | 263,379 | -23.0% |
| Export Price (EUR/t) | 2,082 | 2,858 | +37.2% |
| Import Price (EUR/t) | 2,326 | 3,424 | +47.3% |
Source: General Overview
2. Evolving Partnerships: Consolidated Imports and Diversified Exports
The geographical pattern of the EU's zinc trade underwent a significant realignment, characterized by growing import concentration and a strategic diversification of export destinations.
Import sources consolidated around fewer, more stable partners.
The EU's import base became more concentrated, as evidenced by a 64.1% rise in the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value. This consolidation is clear in partner data: imports from Norway grew by 92.4%, while several previously significant suppliers like the United Kingdom (-72.1%), Mexico (-68.3%), and notably Namibia (-99.3%) and Kazakhstan (-99.9%) saw their shares collapse. This points to a supply chain rationalization, favoring stable, perhaps geographically or politically proximate, partners.
Export destinations shifted towards emerging economies and regional hubs.
In contrast to imports, the export HHI decreased by 25.3%, indicating greater diversification. While traditional partners like the United States (-67.8%) and China (-61.8%) saw significant declines in share, exports to other regions boomed. Exports to India surged by 441.9%, to Singapore by 572.8%, and to Türkiye by 180.7%. This reorientation suggests the EU is capitalizing on growing demand in Asia and serving as a supplier to regional trading hubs.
EU member states show divergent roles in the bloc's external zinc trade.
The Netherlands and Belgium are dominant hubs for both imports and exports, acting as key transshipment points. Spain emerged as the largest exporter in value terms by 2025 (€730 million), growing by 88.5%, while its imports remained relatively modest. Conversely, Austria became a major importer (+191.6%) but a smaller exporter. This specialization within the EU internal market facilitates the bloc's overall export performance.
| Top Import Partners (by Value) | 2015 Value (EUR) | 2025 Value (EUR) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 186,392,071 | 358,689,018 | +92.4% |
| Peru | 166,342,192 | 237,211,752 | +42.6% |
| India | 4,715,666 | 12,041,795 | +155.4% |
| Top Export Partners (by Value) | |||
| Türkiye | 145,535,694 | 408,513,630 | +180.7% |
| India | 21,291,710 | 115,379,129 | +441.9% |
| Singapore | 13,474,044 | 90,658,952 | +572.8% |
Source: Top Partners by Value
3. Internal Capacity and Specialization Driving External Strength
The EU's improved external trade performance is founded on a robust and growing domestic production base, with clear internal specialization patterns that feed the export machine.
EU zinc production surged, supporting both internal demand and export capacity.
Between the first and last available production years, EU production quantity in kilograms more than doubled (+107.4%), and production value grew by 36.0%. This expansion in domestic supply capacity is a critical enabler of the shift to net exporter status, providing the volume needed to service external markets while meeting internal needs.
Specialization is concentrated in a few member states, creating efficient intra-EU supply chains.
Analysis of revealed comparative advantage (RCA) shows that Finland, Bulgaria, and Belgium are the most specialized producers/exporters of zinc products within the EU. Their high RCA scores (12.2, 2.9, and 2.3 respectively) indicate a strong competitive advantage. This specialization allows for an efficient intra-EU division of labor, where specialized producers supply semi-processed zinc to final goods manufacturers in other member states, who then export finished articles.
The EU is increasingly self-reliant, flipping its net import reliance metric.
The Net Import Reliance metric shifted from +8.0% (a net importer) in 2015 to -11.0% (a net exporter) in 2025. Concurrently, the Export Propensity (exports as a share of production) more than doubled from 9.4% to 19.7%. These metrics confirm that the increased production is not just for consumption but is actively channeled into export markets, reducing historical vulnerabilities associated with import dependency.
Conclusion
Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's zinc market (CN 79) has undergone a fundamental transformation. The bloc has transitioned from a net importer with moderate trade balance to a robust net exporter, achieving a trade surplus of over €840 million by 2025. This structural shift was driven by a combination of strong growth in domestic production, a strategic rationalization of import sources towards key stable partners, and a successful diversification of export destinations towards high-growth economies like India, Singapore, and Türkiye. Internally, clear patterns of specialization among member states have created efficient supply chains that bolster the bloc's external competitiveness. As a result, the EU has significantly enhanced its strategic autonomy in the zinc sector, moving from a position of net reliance to one of net export strength.