Market evolution: Unwrought zinc (CN 7901) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report examines the evolution of the European Union's trade in unwrought zinc (Combined Nomenclature code 7901) over the period 2015 to 2025. The analysis focuses on identifying key trends in trade volumes, values, and partnerships, as well as interpreting the underlying shifts in the EU's market position. Over the decade, the EU has undergone a fundamental transformation, moving from a position of modest net import reliance to becoming a significant net exporter of this primary metal. This transition was driven by a surge in export volumes and a strategic diversification of trade partners, occurring within a global environment of considerable price volatility and supply chain shocks.
From Net Importer to Net Exporter: A Structural Shift in the EU's Trade Balance
The most defining trend in the EU's unwrought zinc market over the past decade has been the decisive pivot from being a net importer to a strong net exporter. This structural shift is evident across value, volume, and self-reliance metrics.
A complete reversal in trade reliance
In 2015, the EU was a net importer of unwrought zinc, with a net import reliance of 9.5%. By 2025, this figure had not only reversed but swung dramatically to a net export reliance of -26.3%, meaning the EU exported significantly more than it imported. This represents a change of -376.1% over the period, highlighting a fundamental reorientation of the bloc's zinc sector. The trade balance, which stood at a surplus of €85 million in 2015, grew to a substantial €650 million surplus in 2025, marking a 664% increase.
Divergent trajectories in export and import volumes
The reversal was powered by starkly different paths for exports and imports. EU export quantities grew by 37.3%, from 340,264 tonnes in 2015 to 467,296 tonnes in 2025. In contrast, import quantities fell by 26.3% over the same period, dropping from 282,432 tonnes to 208,258 tonnes. This divergence accelerated after 2020, with export volumes peaking at over 554,000 tonnes in 2023 before a slight correction.
Significant price appreciation boosted trade values
While physical volumes moved in opposite directions, both export and import values increased substantially, propelled by a period of high global zinc prices. The average export price per tonne rose by 40.2% (from €1,877 to €2,633), while the average import price increased by 42.1% (from €1,961 to €2,786). Consequently, the total value of EU exports nearly doubled (+92.6%), reaching €1.23 billion in 2025, while import value saw only marginal growth (+4.8%), amounting to €580 million.
The Evolving Structure of Supply and Demand
Behind the headline trade figures lies a significant restructuring of the EU's zinc market, characterized by growing production, shifting specialisation within the bloc, and increasing concentration of import sources.
EU production showed resilience with a quality shift
Domestic production of unwrought zinc within the EU provided the foundation for the export surge. While production in tonnage grew by a modest 11.5% from 2015 to 2025, its composition is noteworthy. The data indicates a strategic focus on higher-purity zinc. Production of high-purity zinc (≥99.99%, code 790111) was the dominant segment for both imports and exports. In exports, the high-purity segment consistently constituted the vast majority of volumes shipped abroad, suggesting EU producers are competing effectively in the premium segment of the market.
Specialisation within the EU: A tale of concentrated producers
The EU's export capacity is not evenly distributed. Analysis of the Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage (RSCA) in 2025 shows that Finland is by far the most specialised exporter (RSCA: 0.88), followed by Bulgaria (0.58) and Belgium (0.45). These three countries, along with the Netherlands and Spain, form the core of the EU's zinc export engine. Conversely, many member states show no specialisation in this product, indicating a highly concentrated production and export base within the EU.
Import supply chains became more concentrated and volatile
While the EU reduced its overall import volume, its remaining import sources became more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import concentration more than doubled, from 2,091 in 2015 to 4,581 in 2025, indicating a less diversified supplier base. Norway consolidated its position as the dominant supplier, accounting for €332 million of imports in 2025 (first: €166m). In contrast, previously important suppliers like Namibia, the United Kingdom, and Mexico saw their trade with the EU collapse by over 99%, 98%, and 70% respectively, due to a combination of factors likely including trade policy changes post-Brexit and shifting global production economics.
Geographical Diversification, Price Shocks, and Strategic Realignment
The EU's zinc trade was not only transformed in scale but also geographically reoriented. This reorientation occurred against a backdrop of significant price volatility and was punctuated by notable supply shocks.
Export markets: A pivot towards the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia
The geographical destination of EU zinc exports shifted dramatically away from the Americas and towards emerging economies. While the United States was the top export destination in 2015 (€190 million), its share collapsed by 97% to just €5.3 million in 2025. Meanwhile, exports to Türkiye grew by 181% to €386 million, making it the EU's largest partner. Similarly, exports to Egypt (+204%), Saudi Arabia (+127%), and Singapore (+10,817%, albeit from a low base) surged. This pivot demonstrates the EU's successful market diversification towards regions with strong industrial growth and construction demand.
The 2022 price spike and its asymmetric impact
The data reveals a period of extreme price volatility, culminating in 2022. The average EU import price that year reached €3,612/tonne, the highest in the period. This spike was linked to global energy crises and supply chain disruptions. The volatility was most pronounced in certain bilateral flows, identified as "shock events":
| Entity | Flow | Shock Type | Year | Value Shift (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | Exports | Price | 2022 | +877.9% |
| Mexico | Imports | Price | 2017 | +39.4% |
| Brazil | Exports | Price | 2022 | +330.1% |
The 2022 price shock in EU exports to China (where the value of exports increased by 877.9%) underscores how global market tightness created exceptional arbitrage opportunities, which EU producers were able to capitalize on, further boosting their export revenues.
Strengthening autonomy and export orientation
The combined effect of these changes is a profound improvement in the EU's strategic position for this critical industrial metal. The net import reliance swing to -26.3% is the clearest indicator of enhanced supply security. Furthermore, the export propensity—the share of domestic production that is exported—skyrocketed from 9.7% in 2015 to 36.4% in 2025, a 274% increase. This demonstrates that the EU's zinc industry has become fundamentally export-oriented, a change with significant implications for the bloc's industrial resilience and trade balance.
Conclusion
The EU's unwrought zinc market underwent a transformative decade between 2015 and 2025. The bloc decisively shifted from a net importer to a robust net exporter, a change underpinned by resilient high-value production and a strategic reorientation of export flows. EU producers successfully navigated periods of intense global price volatility, capitalizing on market shocks to expand their footprint in new growth markets across the Middle East and Asia, while drastically reducing imports from several traditional suppliers. This evolution has resulted in a more autonomous and export-oriented European zinc industry, significantly altering its role in global supply chains and enhancing its strategic economic position.