Market evolution: Zinc dust powders and flakes (CN 7903) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU external trade in CN 7903 — Zinc dust, powders and flakes (excluding grains of zinc and spangles of heading 8308) over the period 2015–2025. The product is used across a range of industrial applications including galvanisation, anti-corrosion coatings, chemical synthesis, and battery technologies. CN 7903 bundles two sub-headings: 790310 (zinc dust) and 790390 (zinc powders and flakes), which exhibit markedly different trade patterns as shown in the product segment breakdown.

Over the period under review, the EU has consolidated its position as a net exporter of CN 7903, with a trade surplus that grew from €43.3 million in 2015 to €66.0 million in 2025 — a 52.4% increase. This occurred against a backdrop of rising unit prices on both sides of the trade balance, growing EU production volumes, and a notable diversification of trade partners. The report identifies three principal dynamics that shaped this market over the decade.

1. A Structural Trade Surplus Strengthened by Rising Prices

1.1 The EU consistently exported more than it imported

Throughout the 2015–2025 period, the EU maintained a positive trade balance in CN 7903. As detailed in the general overview, net import reliance remained negative throughout, moving from −20.9% in 2015 to −31.0% in 2025. Negative values indicate a net exporter position, and the deepening of this figure signals that the EU's export orientation strengthened over the decade.

The trade surplus peaked at approximately €151.2 million at some point during the period (its recorded maximum), reflecting the strong cyclical demand for EU-origin zinc products.

1.2 Price increases drove value growth more than volume expansion

A key finding is that value growth was overwhelmingly driven by rising unit prices rather than by large increases in traded quantities:

Export prices rose from €1,714/t to €2,337/t, while import prices climbed from €2,675/t to €3,677/t. The fact that import prices consistently exceed export prices by a wide margin (roughly €1,000–1,300/t differential) suggests that the EU tends to import higher-value-added or higher-specification zinc powders and flakes (sub-heading 790390), while exporting larger volumes of zinc dust (sub-heading 790310) at lower unit values.

This is confirmed in the product segment breakdown: in 2025, 790390 (powders and flakes) was imported at an average price of €6,227/t, compared to just €3,475/t for 790310 (zinc dust). On the export side, 790390 fetched €4,044/t versus €1,689/t for zinc dust.

1.3 Export volumes showed cyclical volatility while imports remained steadier

EU export quantities were notably volatile, peaking at 123,468 tonnes at one point during the period (likely 2019, driven by a surge in zinc dust exports of over 103,000 tonnes in that year), before settling at 44,457 tonnes in 2025. Import volumes, by contrast, stayed within a narrower band of 9,101 to 13,239 tonnes. This asymmetry reflects the fact that export volumes are more exposed to global demand fluctuations — particularly from major partners like Norway and the United States — while import needs are relatively structurally determined.

2. Geographic Diversification and Shifting Partner Dynamics

2.1 Trade concentration declined on both import and export sides

A significant structural trend is the reduction in trade concentration as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI). Both import-side and export-side HHI values fell meaningfully over the period, as shown in the concentration analysis:

This indicates that the EU diversified its supplier base and its export destination portfolio over the decade, reducing dependence on any single partner.

2.2 Norway emerged as a dominant bilateral partner

Across both trade flows, Norway stands out as the most important single partner for the EU in CN 7903. On the import side, Norway supplied €19.2 million in 2015, rising to €24.8 million in 2025 (+28.9%), and accounting for roughly two-thirds of total EU imports. Norway's position is notably stable, with the lowest coefficient of variation (CV = 0.16) among all import partners — a reflection of long-standing supply relationships, likely tied to Norway's significant zinc smelting capacity (e.g., Boliden's Odda smelter).

On the export side, Norway also grew dramatically from €10.1 million to €25.4 million (+153.0%), though with considerably higher volatility (CV = 0.68). The bilateral nature of this relationship — with the EU both importing from and exporting to Norway — suggests specialised flows, with different product segments or specifications moving in each direction.

2.3 New and rapidly growing export markets in Asia

The most striking growth stories on the export side came from Asian markets, as detailed in the top partners analysis:

Indonesia's tenfold growth likely reflects the country's expanding steel galvanising and manufacturing sectors. Singapore, while still a significant market, saw a decline — possibly due to re-export dynamics shifting to neighbouring Malaysia and Indonesia. Canada's near-exponential rise from virtually zero suggests the opening of new commercial relationships, possibly linked to industrial demand in North American manufacturing.

2.4 Import-source shifts reflect geopolitical and competitive realignment

On the import side, the most dramatic changes occurred among smaller suppliers. India grew from just €241,000 to €3.4 million (+1,299%), making it the second-largest import source by 2025 — though with high volatility (CV = 1.50). This growth coincided with India's expanding zinc processing capacity. Iran and Saudi Arabia also expanded their EU-bound shipments (+382% and +247% respectively), potentially reflecting new Middle Eastern smelting investments.

Conversely, United States imports collapsed from €2.5 million to just €250,000 (−90.0%), indicating a near-total withdrawal of US-origin zinc products from the EU market. This may reflect competitive pressures, currency dynamics, or a reorientation of US production toward domestic or other markets.

2.5 Supply shocks were isolated but significant

The volatility and shock analysis detected three notable shock events:

• A UK import price shock in 2023 with an abnormality score of 231.4 and a price shift of +616.8%, though the UK accounts for only 1.5% of import value — suggesting a small-volume but extreme price event, possibly related to post-Brexit trade friction or a specific quality premium.
• A US export price shock in 2022 with a 48.9% price shift, affecting 54.4% of export value — this is the most significant shock in absolute terms, coinciding with the global commodity price surge of 2022.
• An India import price shock in 2022 (+46.5%), affecting 9.7% of import value, again consistent with broader commodity inflation.

These shocks appear to have been largely price-driven rather than volume-disrupting, and the EU's growing geographic diversification likely helped absorb them.

3. Domestic Production Surge and Internal Specialisation Patterns

3.1 EU production more than doubled in volume and value

A perhaps underappreciated dynamic is the extraordinary growth in EU domestic production of CN 7903. According to the market structure data:

This doubling of output explains why the EU's net export position deepened even as imports remained relatively stable: domestic production growth was largely absorbed by export markets rather than displacing imports, given that imports serve a somewhat different product niche (higher-specification powders and flakes).

3.2 Belgium and Sweden emerged as specialised production and trade hubs

Revealed comparative advantage (RCA) and RSCA indices for 2025 highlight a clear specialisation hierarchy among EU member states, as shown in the specialisation analysis:

Belgium dominates with nearly half of EU production share and a very high RCA of 5.79, confirming its role as the EU's primary zinc dust production and export hub — likely anchored by Nyrstar's facilities. Sweden follows, benefiting from integrated zinc smelting operations. Germany, despite having the second-largest production share (21.3%), shows an RCA near 1.0, indicating that its CN 7903 exports are roughly proportional to its overall trade profile — it is a large producer but not particularly specialised in this product.

At the other end, countries like Hungary (RCA 0.0001), Latvia (0.003), and Slovakia (0.005) show virtually no specialisation, with negligible production and export shares.

3.3 Intra-EU export leadership shifted from Germany to Belgium and Sweden

The top reporters analysis reveals a notable realignment of export leadership within the EU:

Germany, which was the largest exporter in 2015, was overtaken by Belgium and saw its exports decline by 20.5%. Sweden more than doubled its exports. The Netherlands, once a modest exporter, essentially exited the market. This reshuffling likely reflects investment decisions, capacity utilisation, and the competitive positioning of individual smelters and processing plants.

3.4 Zinc dust (790310) drove export volume volatility while powders/flakes (790390) dominated import value

The segment breakdown reveals that the two sub-headings played very different roles:

• 790310 (Zinc dust): Dominates export volumes (32,234 t in 2025 vs. 12,223 t for 790390) but at much lower unit prices (€1,689/t vs. €4,044/t). Export quantities were extremely volatile — surging to over 103,000 tonnes in 2019 before falling back.
• 790390 (Zinc powders and flakes): A niche import product (755 t in 2025) but at very high prices (€6,227/t), indicating specialty or high-specification materials. On the export side, volumes in this sub-heading have been gradually declining from 17,976 t to 12,223 t.

This structural asymmetry — high-volume/low-price dust exports versus low-volume/high-price powder/flake imports — underpins the EU's role as a bulk zinc dust producer and exporter, while remaining partially dependent on external sources for premium-grade zinc powders and flakes.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's trade in CN 7903 (Zinc dust, powders and flakes) was characterised by three reinforcing dynamics: (1) a strengthening trade surplus driven more by price appreciation than volume growth; (2) a geographic diversification of both suppliers and export destinations, reducing concentration risk; and (3) a doubling of domestic production, anchored by Belgium and Sweden, which underpinned the EU's deepening net-exporter status.

The EU's position appears structurally robust. Rising prices on both import and export sides suggest sustained demand, while the declining HHI indicates a healthier, more diversified trade profile. However, the persistently higher import prices — reflecting the EU's dependence on external sources for premium zinc powders and flakes (790390) — represent a potential vulnerability should supply conditions tighten. The isolated but sharp price shocks detected in 2022–2023, particularly affecting US exports and Indian imports, serve as reminders of the commodity-linked volatility inherent in this market.

Looking ahead, the continued expansion of Asian markets (Indonesia, Malaysia) and the consolidation of the Norway bilateral relationship will likely remain central features of this trade, while the EU's ability to sustain production growth at current rates will determine whether its net-exporter advantage continues to deepen.