Market evolution: Zinc scrap (CN 7902) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyses the trade dynamics of EU zinc waste and scrap (CN 7902) with non-EU countries over the period 2015-2025. The data reveals a market where the European Union significantly strengthened its position as a major global exporter, driven by rising unit values and substantial shifts in trade geography. While overall export volumes grew moderately, the surge in export value points to a strategic realignment towards higher-value destinations and changing market conditions. This period was characterized by a sharp pivot away from traditional large-scale partners and the rapid emergence of new, high-volume buyers in Asia.
Sustained Growth and a Firm Net-Exporter Position
Over the decade, the EU's trade in zinc scrap evolved from a position of significant export activity to one of consolidated and valuable net exportation. Both the value and volume of exports increased, but the growth in value far outpaced the growth in volume, indicating higher average selling prices.
The EU's export value grew by 55.8%, rising from €92.5 million in 2015 to €144.1 million in 2025. In contrast, export quantity increased by only 8.5%, from 59,230 tonnes to 64,273 tonnes. This divergence is explained by a 43.6% increase in the average export price, which climbed from €1,561 per tonne to €2,242 per tonne.
Simultaneously, imports grew more modestly in value (+34.1% to €23.5 million) and volume (+9.0% to 14,087 tonnes). Consequently, the EU's trade balance surplus expanded by 60.9%, reaching €120.6 million by the end of the period. This confirms the EU's role as a consistent and increasingly valuable net exporter of zinc scrap.
| Metric | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Export Value (€) | 92.5 M | 144.1 M | +55.8% |
| Export Volume (t) | 59,230 | 64,273 | +8.5% |
| Export Price (€/t) | 1,561 | 2,242 | +43.6% |
| Import Value (€) | 17.5 M | 23.5 M | +34.1% |
| Trade Balance (€) | 74.9 M | 120.6 M | +60.9% |
A Dramatic Geographic Realignment of Trade Flows
The most striking feature of the 2015-2025 period is the profound reorientation of EU zinc scrap export destinations. The market underwent a clear shift from concentrated dependence on a single major buyer to a more diversified, yet Asia-focused, export portfolio.
The EU's top export partner in 2015 was China, receiving €71.4 million (77% of total exports). By 2025, exports to China had collapsed by 98.8% to just €0.8 million. This void was filled by a surge in exports to other Asian markets. India emerged as the dominant destination, with exports soaring from €12.9 million to €85.3 million (+558.9%). Thailand transformed from a negligible partner (€98,000) to the third-largest buyer at €45.5 million. This realignment is also visible in the EU's export concentration index (HHI), which fell by 27.2%, indicating a move away from extreme dependence on one partner.
| Export Partner (€ value) | 2015 | 2025 | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 12.9 M | 85.3 M | +558.9% |
| China | 71.4 M | 0.8 M | -98.8% |
| Thailand | 0.1 M | 45.5 M | +46,375% |
| Malaysia | 0.04 M | 3.1 M | +8,564% |
On the import side, the source markets for EU zinc scrap also evolved, though less dramatically. The United States consolidated its position as the top source, with imports growing 89% to €9.5 million. The United Kingdom saw a 42% decline in its role as a supplier. Newer sources like Thailand (from €25,000 to €1.5 million) and India (from €38,000 to €428,000) became more prominent.
Price Volatility and Supply Chain Diversification
The period was marked by significant price volatility, particularly in certain trade relationships, and strategic responses in supply chain sourcing. Fluctuations in the global zinc market and geopolitical factors contributed to pronounced shifts in unit values.
Analysis of price volatility shows high variation (coefficient of variation) in key trade flows. For EU exports, flows to Türkiye (CV=1.66), Sri Lanka (CV=1.51), and Korea, Republic of (CV=1.45) were notably unstable. On the import side, sourcing from Thailand (CV=1.29), India (CV=1.16), and Norway (CV=1.04) was similarly volatile.
The system experienced detectable supply shocks. The most pronounced was a 2017 price shock for imports from Mexico (abnormality index: 21.9) and Switzerland (6.7), where average prices spiked by 44% and 48% respectively. Another shock occurred in 2022 with imports from Bosnia and Herzegovina (price shift: +53%).
In response to volatility and geopolitical shifts, EU members strategically diversified their export destinations. This is reflected in the specialisation of EU members. France (RSCA: 0.64) and Germany (RSCA: 0.08) are the most specialised exporters of zinc scrap among major economies. The rise of the Netherlands as a top exporter (value up 380.5%) also suggests a strengthening of the EU's internal logistics and re-export hub role. EU domestic production of zinc scrap also grew, with quantity rising 48.7% and value 56.2%, providing a larger base for the export market.
Conclusion
The 2015-2025 period solidified the EU's role as a critical global supplier of zinc scrap, characterized by growing value rather than just volume. The most transformative dynamic was the near-total displacement of China as an export destination and the rapid rise of India and Thailand, a shift likely driven by China's changing industrial policies and scrap import restrictions, and robust demand growth in South and Southeast Asia. This realignment occurred alongside significant price volatility and supply chain shocks, prompting diversification in both sourcing and sales. The EU market demonstrated resilience and adaptability, capitalizing on its growing domestic scrap base and strategic positioning to serve new high-demand regions, thereby enhancing its trade balance and integrating more deeply into Asian circular economy value chains.