Market evolution: Zinc sheet and foil (CN 7905) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of the European Union's external trade in zinc plates, sheets, strip and foil (Combined Nomenclature code 7905) over the period 2015–2025. The product falls under the broader chapter "Zinc and articles thereof" (CN 79) and maps to PRODCOM code 24.43.23.00, which covers zinc bars, rods, profiles, wire, plates, sheets, strip and foil. Over the decade under review, the EU market for this product underwent a profound structural transformation: the bloc shifted from being a net importer to a net exporter, even as domestic production volumes contracted sharply. This report identifies and interprets the main dynamics behind this shift, drawing on trade values, volumes, unit prices, partner concentration, production data, and volatility indicators.

1. A Decade of Reversal: From Net Importer to Net Exporter

The most striking feature of EU trade in CN 7905 over 2015–2025 is the complete inversion of the trade balance. The EU moved from a net import position of approximately −€14.2 million in 2015 to a net export surplus of +€22.2 million by 2025 — a swing of over 256%. This section unpacks the magnitude and composition of that reversal.

The trade balance turned decisively positive after 2020

In the early years of the period, the EU consistently ran a trade deficit in zinc sheet and foil, peaking at around −€26.8 million. From 2020 onwards, the balance shifted into surplus territory, reaching a maximum of approximately +€31.8 million. By 2025, the surplus stood at +€22.2 million, confirming that the structural shift was not merely a one-off anomaly but a durable reorientation. View the overall trade evolution.

Exports surged in value, volume, and price simultaneously

EU exports grew dramatically across all three metrics:

The fact that both volumes and prices rose simultaneously suggests that the export expansion was not merely a fire-sale at discounted prices. Rather, EU exporters appear to have gained competitiveness while also benefiting from higher global zinc prices.

Imports declined in volume but not proportionally in value

On the import side, the picture is one of contraction:

Import volumes fell by more than a third, yet import values declined only modestly (−12.3%) because unit prices rose by nearly 39%. This price inflation largely reflects the global commodity supercycle of 2021–2022, during which zinc prices spiked. The EU's reduced import dependence thus appears to reflect both demand-side substitution and supply-side realignment rather than simple price effects.

Net import reliance crossed into negative territory

The net import reliance indicator confirms this structural shift. In 2015, the EU had a positive net import reliance of approximately +2.8%, meaning imports exceeded exports relative to domestic output. By 2025, this figure had turned negative at −2.1%, indicating that the EU now exports more zinc sheet and foil than it imports. The most negative reading (−5.0%) was recorded in an intermediate year, suggesting the export surplus was at times even larger than in 2025.

2. Geographical Reorientation: New Partners, New Dependencies

The reversal in the trade balance was accompanied by significant changes in the EU's trade partner landscape. Both import sources and export destinations underwent notable restructuring, with some traditional partners declining in importance while others — including some surprising ones — gained ground rapidly.

Peru remained the dominant import source but with a shrinking share

Peru has been the EU's single largest supplier of zinc sheet and foil throughout the period, accounting for the vast majority of import value. In 2025, Peruvian imports stood at approximately €24.0 million, down 8.3% from €26.2 million in 2015. However, Peru's peak was much higher — around €45.6 million — meaning that the current level represents a significant retreat. Despite this decline, the import concentration index (HHI) remained elevated at approximately 7,682 in 2025 (up from 7,114 in 2015), confirming that the EU's import supply remained highly concentrated on a single partner. This is a significant vulnerability factor.

Emerging import sources reflect diversified but volatile sourcing

Several smaller import partners showed dramatic growth from very low bases:

These figures, while small in absolute terms, suggest growing competition from Asian and emerging-market producers. China's rise is noteworthy given its broader role in global zinc production. However, the volatility data show that imports from Australia and Türkiye are highly volatile (coefficient of variation of 1.95 and 1.34, respectively), suggesting these are opportunistic rather than structural supply relationships.

The United Kingdom became the EU's top export destination by a wide margin

The most dramatic partner shift occurred on the export side. The UK went from being a relatively minor export destination (€2.1 million in 2015, or 4th place) to becoming the EU's overwhelmingly dominant export market at €17.0 million in 2025 — a 697% increase. At its peak (around €31.7 million), the UK accounted for the single largest share of EU zinc sheet exports. This surge almost certainly reflects the effects of Brexit: from January 2021, zinc products crossing the Channel became subject to customs formalations, rules of origin, and potential tariff classification differences that incentivised direct formal trade flows rather than intra-EU movements now classified as external trade.

Türkiye and Switzerland emerged as fast-growing export markets

Beyond the UK, two other partners saw exceptional growth:

Türkiye's surge is particularly noteworthy: by 2025, it had become the EU's third-largest export market, up from near-irrelevance a decade earlier. This likely reflects Türkiye's growing manufacturing base and its role as an intermediary in broader supply chains. The EU's export concentration (HHI) declined from 2,429 to 1,754 over the period, indicating that export markets became more diversified — a positive development from a risk perspective.

French exporters dominated the EU's outbound trade

Looking at intra-EU reporting, France was by far the largest exporter of zinc sheet and foil to non-EU countries, accounting for €37.4 million in 2025 — roughly 75% of total EU exports. France also showed the highest revealed comparative advantage (RCA of 6.02) and a normalised RCA (RSCA) of 0.72, confirming strong specialisation. Spain was a distant second (€5.5 million), followed by the Netherlands (€3.9 million). On the import side, France was also the top importer (€7.8 million), followed closely by Italy (€7.9 million) and Belgium (€4.4 million). Italy's imports grew 117% over the period, suggesting expanding domestic demand for zinc sheet in Italian manufacturing.

3. Declining Production, Rising Export Orientation: A Structural Paradox

Perhaps the most counterintuitive finding in the data is that the EU's trade surplus expanded even as domestic production of zinc sheet and foil contracted sharply. This section explores the paradox of a shrinking production base supporting a growing export presence.

EU production volumes fell by nearly 40%

According to the PRODCOM production data, EU production of zinc sheet and foil declined from approximately 299 million kg in 2015 to 180 million kg in 2025 — a fall of 39.8%. Production value declined more modestly (−3.8%), from €936 million to €900 million, reflecting rising unit prices that partially offset the volume decline. The production volume reached a low of 180 million kg (its minimum in the dataset), while value ranged between €600 million and €1,200 million, indicating substantial price volatility at the production level.

Export propensity tripled despite lower output

The contradiction between declining production and rising exports is captured by the export propensity indicator, which measures exports as a share of production. This ratio rose from 1.9% in 2015 to 6.2% in 2025 — a 230% increase. In other words, while total output shrank, the fraction directed to export markets nearly tripled. This suggests that EU producers may be strategically pivoting toward higher-value external markets, possibly in response to flat or declining domestic demand for zinc sheet in traditional applications (construction, roofing, guttering) and growing demand from industrial buyers in Türkiye, Switzerland, and other fast-growing economies.

Trade intensity increased moderately, confirming greater openness

The trade intensity indicator, which measures total trade (imports + exports) as a share of production, rose from 6.3% to 9.9% over the period. This confirms that the EU's zinc sheet market became more internationally integrated over time, though the level remains relatively low — suggesting that the product is still primarily consumed domestically, with external trade playing a secondary but growing role.

Specialisation patterns reveal a concentrated and uneven EU landscape

The specialisation data for 2025 show that only a handful of EU member states are meaningfully specialised in zinc sheet production:

France and Spain together account for nearly 68% of EU production and are the only member states with strongly positive RSCA values, indicating clear comparative advantage. The majority of EU member states — including large economies like Germany, Italy, and Sweden — show negligible or negative specialisation, meaning they are net importers or absent from this product category. This geographic concentration implies that the EU's trade performance in CN 7905 is heavily dependent on a small number of national producers.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in zinc plates, sheets, strip and foil (CN 7905) underwent a fundamental transformation between 2015 and 2025. A persistent trade deficit gave way to a sustained surplus, driven by a near-tripling of export values combined with a significant contraction in import volumes. This reversal occurred despite — or perhaps because of — a 40% decline in domestic production volumes, as EU producers redirected a growing share of their reduced output toward external markets.

Several structural features define the current market. The EU's import supply remains heavily concentrated on Peru, creating a single-point dependency that persisted throughout the period. On the export side, the landscape diversified considerably, with the UK (likely due to Brexit-related trade reclassification), Türkiye, and Switzerland emerging as key growth markets. France stands out as the overwhelmingly dominant national player, accounting for roughly half of EU production and three-quarters of exports, with the highest comparative advantage in the bloc.

Price dynamics played a significant role throughout the decade: global zinc price increases inflated both import and export unit values, masking some of the underlying volume trends. The commodity price shocks of 2021–2022 are reflected in several detected price anomalies, particularly in EU exports to Morocco and imports from Peru.

Looking ahead, the key vulnerabilities for the EU in this market are the continued concentration of import sourcing, the heavy reliance on a small number of member states for production and export capacity, and the sensitivity of trade flows to global zinc price cycles. The rising export orientation, while commercially positive, also implies greater exposure to demand fluctuations in partner markets — particularly in Türkiye and the UK, where trade growth has been most rapid but also most volatile.