Market evolution: Special high-grade zinc (CN 790111) — 2015–2025
Introduction
This report analyzes the European Union's trade dynamics for Special High-Grade (SHG) zinc, classified under customs code 790111, over the period from 2015 to 2025. Using the provided trade data, it describes and interprets the key evolutions in the EU's export and import patterns, market structure, and strategic positioning. The analysis reveals a significant transformation in the EU's role in the global SHG zinc market, characterized by a strengthening export performance, shifts in key trading partnerships, and notable price volatility.
For more details and the complete dataset, see the General Overview on the Trade Dashboard.
1. The EU's Transition from Net Importer to Major Exporter
A defining trend of the 2015-2025 period is the EU's transition from a net importer to a significant net exporter of SHG zinc. This shift is evident across all key trade metrics.
1.1 Export Expansion Outpaces Import Growth
EU exports of SHG zinc experienced robust growth, with the value increasing by 80.9% and quantity rising by 27.1% over the period. In contrast, import value grew by only 12.2%, while import quantity actually decreased by 19.5%. This divergence underpins the shift in the overall trade balance.
| Metric | Exports | Imports |
|---|---|---|
| Value (EUR) % Change | +80.9% | +12.2% |
| Quantity (t) % Change | +27.1% | -19.5% |
| Unit Price (EUR/t) % Change | +42.3% | +39.3% |
Source: General Overview - Trade
1.2 The Swing to a Positive Trade Balance
The EU's trade balance for SHG zinc turned decisively positive. Starting at a surplus of around €220 million in 2015, it expanded to nearly €570 million by 2025—a 159% increase. This reflects a fundamental strengthening of the EU's competitive position in the global market for this high-purity material.
Source: General Overview - Trade Balance
1.3 Rising Export Propensity and Declining Import Reliance
Structural indicators confirm this transformation. The EU's net import reliance swung from +13.3% in 2015 to -38.4% in 2025, indicating that exports now significantly exceed imports. Concurrently, export propensity (the share of domestic production exported) surged from 11.9% to 47.5%.
2. Evolving and Concentrating Trade Partnerships
The period witnessed dramatic re-alignments in both the EU's import sources and export destinations, leading to increased concentration on the import side and a diversification of export partners.
2.1 Consolidation of Key Import Sources
The EU's import base became more concentrated. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for import value more than doubled, from 2,101 to 4,297, indicating a market dominated by fewer suppliers.
The profile of top import partners changed markedly:
| Partner | 2015 Value (EUR) | 2025 Value (EUR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway | 42.1 M | 138.0 M | +228.0% |
| Peru | 34.9 M | 120.5 M | +245.5% |
| Namibia | 83.8 M | 0.6 M | -99.3% |
| United Kingdom | 46.7 M | 0.2 M | -99.7% |
Source: Top Partners by Value - Imports
Norway and Peru emerged as the dominant, stable suppliers, while formerly major sources like Namibia and the UK saw their exports to the EU collapse.
2.2 Diversification and Growth of Export Destinations
In contrast, the EU's export market became less concentrated (HHI fell from 1,952 to 1,010), with explosive growth to new partners.
| Partner | 2015 Value (EUR) | 2025 Value (EUR) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Türkiye | 50.2 M | 215.5 M | +328.9% |
| Egypt | 25.4 M | 80.0 M | +214.6% |
| Singapore | 0.2 M | 80.5 M | +51,652.8% |
| United States | 189.4 M | 3.7 M | -98.0% |
Source: Top Partners by Value - Exports
The EU rapidly developed new export channels to markets in the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia, while the traditionally large market in the United States diminished drastically.
3. Price Volatility and Market Shocks
The SHG zinc market was characterized by significant price volatility, with several acute shocks affecting both import and export flows, testing the resilience of the EU's trade relationships.
3.1 High Volatility in Key Bilateral Flows
The coefficient of variation in trade values was high with several partners, indicating unstable year-to-year trade volumes.
- Imports: Volatility was particularly high with India (CV: 2.67) and Kazakhstan (CV: 1.18).
- Exports: High volatility was observed with China (CV: 2.01) and Singapore (CV: 1.85).
3.2 Notable Price and Supply Shocks
Specific, extreme events punctuated the period:
- 2020 Import Price Shock (India): A massive, abnormal price spike occurred in 2020, with the unit price from India increasing by 2,032.4%. This shock was highly abnormal (81.8) and represented 12.7% of EU import value that year, likely linked to supply disruptions.
- 2022 Export Price Shock (China): EU export prices to China surged by 140.5% in 2022, an abnormal event (32.2) that coincided with the broader global energy and commodity price crisis.
Source: Top Shock Events
These shocks highlight the vulnerability of specific trade corridors to sudden disruptions, whether from supply-side constraints or demand-side price fluctuations.
Conclusion
Over the decade from 2015 to 2025, the EU's market for Special High-Grade zinc underwent a profound transformation. The bloc evolved from a net importer into a formidable net exporter, significantly increasing its export propensity. This was achieved while navigating a volatile global market, characterized by the consolidation of major suppliers (Norway, Peru), a dramatic pivot of export flows towards new growth markets (Türkiye, Singapore, Egypt), and enduring several severe price shocks. The increased concentration of imports presents a potential supply-side vulnerability, but this is counterbalanced by a strengthened and diversified export base. Overall, the data depicts an EU zinc sector that has successfully enhanced its international competitive position over the period.