Market evolution: Railway rolling stock and parts (CN 86) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in railway or tramway locomotives, rolling stock and parts thereof; railway or tramway track fixtures and fittings and parts thereof; mechanical (including electromechanical) traffic signalling equipment of all kinds (CN code 86) over the period 2015–2025. The EU has long been a major exporter of high-value railway equipment, with industry leaders such as Germany, France, and Austria supplying rolling stock, signalling systems, and components to global markets. Over the decade under review, however, the EU's trade profile in this sector has undergone a notable transformation: while exports have continued to grow, imports have surged far more rapidly, reshaping the trade balance and raising important questions about the EU's competitive position and supply-chain exposure.

The overall trade data reveal three broad dynamics. First, the EU remains a strong net exporter, but its trade surplus has eroded from €3.54 billion in 2015 to €2.69 billion in 2025 (−24.2%). Second, the geographic structure of trade has shifted substantially, with new import partners gaining ground and the composition of EU member-state trade becoming more diversified. Third, EU-wide production has grown significantly, but export propensity has declined, suggesting that a growing share of output is serving the domestic market rather than foreign buyers.

1. A widening trade gap: surging imports outpace export growth

The most striking macro-level trend in the CN 86 sector over the past decade is the pronounced divergence between import and export growth. While the EU's exports grew at a healthy pace, imports grew at more than five times that rate, progressively eroding the sector's trade surplus.

1.1 Imports more than doubled in value and volume

EU imports of CN 86 products grew from €1.44 billion in 2015 to €3.53 billion in 2025, representing an increase of 144.6% over the decade. In volume terms, imports rose from 448,504 tonnes to 960,831 tonnes (+114.2%). This near-doubling in physical volume, combined with a 14.2% increase in unit prices (from €3,219/t to €3,675/t), produced the dramatic value increase.

The intensity of import growth accelerated markedly in the latter part of the period. The minimum import value was recorded in 2015 (€1.44 billion) and the maximum in 2025 (€3.53 billion), indicating a nearly monotonic upward trajectory without any prolonged reversal.

1.2 Exports grew steadily but less spectacularly

By contrast, EU exports of CN 86 products rose from €4.99 billion in 2015 to €6.22 billion in 2025, a 24.7% increase. Volume grew by 11.6% (from 587,224t to 655,223t) and unit prices rose by 11.8% (from €8,489/t to €9,489/t). Notably, the peak export year was not 2025 but rather 2019, when exports reached €6.86 billion before declining during the COVID-19 disruption and subsequently recovering.

A critical observation is the persistent price differential: EU exports command average unit prices roughly 2.5 times higher than imports (€9,489/t vs. €3,675/t in 2025). This reflects the EU's specialisation in high-value, technology-intensive segments such as electric locomotives (CN 8601), self-propelled rolling stock (CN 8603), and signalling equipment (CN 8608), while imports are concentrated in lower-unit-value categories such as containers (CN 8609) and goods wagons (CN 8606).

1.3 The trade surplus narrowed significantly

As a result of these divergent trends, the EU's trade surplus in CN 86 declined from €3.54 billion in 2015 to €2.69 billion in 2025 (−24.2%). The surplus reached its trough at €1.62 billion (likely around 2020–2021, coinciding with the pandemic-era export dip and continued import growth) before partially recovering.

The net import reliance, which captures imports as a share of apparent consumption, moved from −17.2% to −8.0% (where a negative value indicates net export status). While the EU remains a net exporter, the sector is becoming meaningfully less export-oriented relative to its total output.

2. Shifting trade partnerships: the rise of new suppliers and evolving export destinations

The decade 2015–2025 saw a substantial reconfiguration of the EU's trade partnerships in CN 86. On the import side, several new or previously minor partners emerged as major suppliers, most notably China, Türkiye, and Serbia. On the export side, the EU strengthened its trade ties with Switzerland and several emerging markets, while export flows to China and the United Kingdom became more volatile.

2.1 China became the EU's largest import source

The most dramatic import-side shift was China's ascent from €261 million in 2015 to €1.03 billion in 2025, an increase of 295.0%. By 2025, China accounted for approximately 29% of all EU CN 86 imports by value, making it the single largest extra-EU supplier. This growth likely reflects China's emergence as a major manufacturer of railway containers (CN 8609) and components, as well as broader supply-chain integration in the transport equipment sector.

2.2 Türkiye and Serbia became major emerging suppliers

Beyond China, two other partners showed explosive import growth:

• Türkiye: from €27.6 million in 2015 to €306 million in 2025 (+1,008.5%), reflecting that country's growing role as a railway equipment manufacturer and its geographic proximity to the EU market.
• Serbia: from €36.2 million in 2015 to €322 million in 2025 (+788.5%), consistent with Serbia's deepening integration into EU supply chains, partly driven by its EU candidate status and associated industrial partnerships.

Together, these three partners added approximately €1.1 billion in new import flows over the decade — accounting for the majority of the total import increase.

2.3 Russia's role as a supplier collapsed

In stark contrast, imports from the Russian Federation fell from €43.4 million in 2015 to just €7.3 million in 2025 (−83.2%). The bulk of this decline occurred after 2022, coinciding with the EU sanctions regime following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Russia's share of EU CN 86 imports became negligible by the end of the period.

2.4 Switzerland consolidated its position as the EU's top export market

On the export side, Switzerland emerged as the EU's single largest destination, with exports rising from €704 million in 2015 to €1.39 billion in 2025 (+97.3%). Switzerland's importance reflects deep integration in the Alpine railway ecosystem, with Swiss Federal Railways (SBB) and related operators being major customers for EU-manufactured rolling stock and signalling equipment.

Other notable export trends:

• United Kingdom: exports grew from €632 million to €842 million (+33.1%), though the relationship appears to have become more volatile post-Brexit.
• Serbia: exports surged from €17.8 million to €132 million (+640.9%), mirroring the import-side pattern and reflecting bidirectional supply-chain integration.
• China: exports declined from €856 million to €431 million (−49.7%), suggesting a possible substitution dynamic where Chinese domestic production has displaced some EU exports.

2.5 Trade concentration shifted

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by partner declined from 2,540 to 1,848 (−27.3%), indicating a significant diversification of the EU's import base — largely driven by the emergence of China, Türkiye, and Serbia alongside the established Swiss supplier base. On the export side, the HHI rose modestly from 794 to 931 (+17.3%), suggesting a slight concentration toward the top export destinations, particularly Switzerland.

3. EU industrial specialisation and the evolving product mix

The EU's railway equipment industry is characterised by a high degree of specialisation in certain member states, a complex product mix spanning low-value containers to high-value locomotives, and production volumes that have grown substantially even as export orientation has declined.

3.1 Central and Eastern European economies showed the highest export specialisation

According to the revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) data for 2025, the EU member states with the strongest specialisation in CN 86 exports were:

Croatia's high specialisation ratio (RCA of 6.78) is notable, though its absolute contribution to EU CN 86 exports remains small (2.8% product share). Austria and Czechia, by contrast, combine high specialisation with significant market shares, reflecting their positions as major railway equipment manufacturing hubs. At the other end of the spectrum, Portugal (RSCA −0.987), Greece (−0.956), and Ireland (−0.909) showed very low specialisation, consistent with the concentrated geography of the EU's railway industry.

3.2 EU production expanded dramatically, but exports became a smaller share

EU production of CN 86 products grew from €12.2 billion in 2015 to €31.1 billion in 2025, a 155.4% increase in value terms. In quantity (items), production rose from 4.47 million units to 6.37 million units (+42.5%). This growth likely reflects substantial investment in rail infrastructure across Europe, including high-speed rail expansions, urban transit systems, and signalling upgrades under the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) programme.

However, the export propensity — the ratio of exports to production value — declined from 22.9% in 2015 to 16.6% in 2025 (−27.6%). This indicates that while total output grew substantially, the share destined for non-EU markets actually fell in relative terms. The growing domestic demand for rail equipment, driven by EU policy commitments to modal shift and decarbonisation, appears to be absorbing an increasing share of production.

Similarly, trade intensity (the sum of exports and imports as a share of production) declined from 28.8% to 23.6% (−17.9%), further confirming that the EU's CN 86 sector has become somewhat more domestically oriented.

3.3 Parts and containers dominate the import product mix; rolling stock dominates exports

The product segment breakdown reveals a distinct compositional difference between imports and exports.

On the import side, the two largest product categories in 2025 were:

• CN 8607 (parts of locomotives or rolling stock): €1.40 billion, growing from €635 million in 2015 (+119.8%). This is the single largest import category by value, reflecting the EU's reliance on imported components for its railway manufacturing base.
• CN 8609 (containers): €742 million, growing from €238 million in 2015 (+211.6%). By volume, containers are the dominant import product (640,633 tonnes in 2025, representing two-thirds of total CN 86 import volume).

CN 8603 (self-propelled coaches, vans and trucks) also showed strong import growth, rising from €329 million to €792 million (+140.9%), suggesting that the EU is increasingly sourcing finished rolling stock from outside the bloc.

On the export side, the dominant categories were:

• CN 8607 (parts): €2.42 billion, the largest export category and one that has remained relatively stable around €2.0–2.4 billion throughout the period.
• CN 8603 (self-propelled rolling stock): €1.21 billion in 2025, but highly volatile — peaking at €2.64 billion in 2019 before falling sharply.
• CN 8605 (passenger coaches): €832 million in 2025, up from €243 million in 2015 (+242.0%), reflecting growing demand for EU-built passenger rolling stock.

3.4 Price shocks were concentrated in Swiss trade flows

The volatility and shock analysis identified the most significant abnormal price events in EU–Switzerland CN 86 trade. A major export price shock was detected in 2022 (abnormality score 9.7, price decline of 27.9%), while an import price shock occurred in the same year (abnormality 6.5, price increase of 46.5%). Given that Switzerland is the EU's largest CN 86 trade partner in both directions, these shocks had outsized effects on aggregate trade values, with the export shock representing 27.8% of total CN 86 export value and the import shock 39.5%.

These 2022 anomalies likely reflect a combination of order-cycle effects (large rolling stock contracts produce lumpy data) and possible currency or cost dynamics associated with the Swiss franc. The high coefficient of variation (CV) in Swiss export flows (3.02) confirms that EU–Switzerland railway trade is characterised by high year-to-year volatility, typical of an industry dominated by large, lumpy procurement contracts.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in railway rolling stock and parts (CN 86) over the 2015–2025 period reveals a sector in transition. While the EU remains a major net exporter with a €2.7 billion trade surplus in 2025, this figure masks a fundamental structural shift: imports have more than doubled, growing at nearly six times the pace of exports. China, Türkiye, and Serbia have emerged as major suppliers, collectively adding over €1 billion in import flows, while Russia's role has virtually disappeared following the post-2022 sanctions regime.

The EU's domestic production has expanded impressively — by 155% in value terms — driven by substantial infrastructure investment and policy commitments to rail transport. However, this growth has been absorbed primarily by the EU's own market, with export propensity declining from 23% to 17%. The sector's increasing domestic orientation, combined with growing import penetration, suggests that the EU railway equipment industry faces intensifying competitive pressure from non-EU manufacturers even as it serves a growing home market.

Looking ahead, the data point to several dynamics worth monitoring: the sustainability of China's import growth trajectory, the continued deepening of EU–Serbia supply-chain integration, and the capacity of EU manufacturers to maintain their premium price positioning (currently averaging 2.5× the import unit value) in an increasingly competitive global market.