Market evolution: Clocks and watches (CN 91) — 2015–2025

Introduction

The European Union's trade in clocks and watches (Combined Nomenclature heading 91) covers a broad product category — from luxury wrist-watches with precious-metal cases to wall clocks, time switches, and watch parts. Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU remained a major net importer of these goods, with the trade deficit widening from €3.3 billion to €4.6 billion. Yet the headline figures conceal a more nuanced story: a pronounced shift toward higher-value segments, a sharp post-Brexit reshaping of the UK trade relationship, and growing import concentration around Switzerland. This report examines these dynamics in three sections, drawing on EU trade data at annual frequency.

For an overview of the data and definitions, see Scope & Definitions.

1. The Price-Volume Divergence: Shrinking Volumes, Rising Unit Values

A striking feature of the 2015–2025 period is that while traded quantities fell sharply, the total value of trade held up or even grew — driven by a steep rise in unit values. This pattern is consistent with a structural premiumisation of the EU clocks-and-watches trade.

1.1 Import values held steady while volumes fell by a third

Over the period, EU imports of CN 91 grew modestly in value from €7.68 billion (2015) to €8.47 billion (2025), a gain of +10.3%. Yet import volumes by weight dropped from 52,368 tonnes to 34,554 tonnes (−34.0%). The implied average import price per tonne rose from €146,587 to €245,116 (+67.2%), meaning that the EU was importing substantially fewer units of more expensive goods. See General Overview.

1.2 Export values declined despite a doubling of unit prices

EU exports tell a parallel but less favourable story. Total export value fell from €4.39 billion to €3.88 billion (−11.5%), while export volumes collapsed from 9,523 tonnes to 4,614 tonnes (−51.5%). However, the average export price per tonne nearly doubled, from €459,823 to €836,863 (+82.0%). In other words, EU exporters shipped far less product by weight, but what they shipped was far more valuable on average — again pointing to the concentration of EU activity in high-value, low-volume segments.

1.3 Product-level data confirms the premiumisation trend

The product breakdown reveals which sub-segments drove this price-volume divergence:

Source: Product Segment Breakdown — Imports.

The most dramatic case is CN 9101 (watches with precious-metal cases): import volumes in supplementary units fell from 1.62 million pieces to 1.60 million pieces (essentially flat), but the value per tonne multiplied nearly ninefold, from €2.7 million to €24.9 million per tonne. This reflects the explosive pricing growth of the luxury watch segment over the decade. CN 9102 (watches excluding precious-metal cases) followed a similar pattern — volumes fell while values and unit prices rose steadily.

On the export side, CN 9102 remained the dominant export product at €1.38 billion in 2025, with export prices per tonne rising from €779,683 to €1,410,685 (+80.9%). CN 9101 exports recovered to €1.55 billion in 2025, though with significant volatility and a dip during the 2020 pandemic year (down to €1.09 billion).

Source: Product Segment Breakdown — Exports.

2. Brexit, Switzerland, and the Reconfiguration of EU Trade Partners

The geographic composition of EU trade in clocks and watches shifted markedly over 2015–2025, with two forces standing out: the UK's dramatic decline as a trade partner following Brexit, and Switzerland's growing dominance on the import side.

2.1 Switzerland consolidated its position as the EU's primary import source

Switzerland was already the EU's largest supplier of clocks and watches in 2015, accounting for €5.47 billion in imports. By 2025 this had grown to €6.72 billion (+22.8%), representing roughly 79% of total EU imports by value. The coefficient of variation for Swiss imports was just 0.21, indicating relatively stable trade flows despite their sheer scale. This dominance reflects the Swiss luxury watch industry's structural role in supplying the EU market. See Top Partners.

The concentration index (HHI) for EU imports rose from 5,476 to 6,550 (+19.6%), confirming that import sources became more concentrated — largely because of Switzerland's growing share. On the export side, the HHI remained much lower (2,166) and rose only modestly (+11.1%), indicating more diversified export destinations. See Concentration.

2.2 The UK trade relationship collapsed after Brexit

The United Kingdom's role as a trade partner for CN 91 deteriorated dramatically. Imports from the UK fell from €227 million (2015) to just €36 million (2025), a decline of 84.1%. Exports to the UK fared somewhat better but still fell from €642 million to €197 million (−69.3%). The coefficient of variation for UK imports was 1.33 — the highest among all major partners, indicating extreme volatility and structural disruption. This pattern is consistent with the UK leaving the EU customs union at the start of 2021, which introduced new trade frictions and customs requirements.

It is worth noting that the UK data likely reflects a combination of factors: customs-driven trade redirection, reclassification of goods, and possibly the relocation of distribution or assembly activities. The decline was not gradual but accelerated sharply around 2020–2021.

2.3 Hong Kong's decline and China's relative stability

Hong Kong, once a major channel for re-exports of watches, saw EU imports fall from €244 million to €105 million (−56.7%). EU exports to Hong Kong also declined from €984 million to €738 million (−25.0%). Meanwhile, imports from mainland China were more stable, declining only 16.1% (from €1.48 billion to €1.25 billion), with a coefficient of variation of just 0.11 — the lowest of any major import partner. China's share remained concentrated in the CN 9102 (non-precious-metal watches) and CN 9105 (other clocks) segments, where it supplied large volumes at lower unit prices.

A small but notable shift emerged with Mexico, where EU imports grew from €3.3 million to €10.3 million (+217.2%), potentially reflecting nearshoring trends or new supply chain configurations.

2.4 EU internal trade concentrated in France and Germany

Among EU member states, France and Germany dominated both imports and exports of CN 91, reflecting their roles as home countries for major watch and clock brands as well as large consumer markets.

Source: EU Reporters.

France was the most specialised EU exporter of CN 91, with a revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) of 0.635, well ahead of Germany (0.066). Ireland saw the most dramatic growth in exports, from €9 million to €216 million (+2,428%), likely reflecting the establishment of distribution or re-export hubs by multinational firms. See Specialisation.

3. Shocks, Resilience, and the EU's Import Dependence

The clocks-and-watches trade experienced several supply shocks over the decade, most notably linked to the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, the EU's structural dependence on imports — while still high — showed signs of modest improvement.

3.1 The 2020 pandemic year marked a severe but temporary disruption

The year 2020 stands out as the trough for EU trade in CN 91. Total imports fell to €5.14 billion (from €6.70 billion in 2019), and exports dropped to €3.05 billion (from €4.22 billion). This represented declines of 23.3% and 27.9% respectively. Recovery was swift: by 2021 imports had rebounded to €6.70 billion and by 2025 reached €8.47 billion — well above pre-pandemic levels. Exports recovered more slowly and remained below 2015 levels throughout.

The shock detection analysis identified a significant price shock in EU exports to Switzerland in 2020, with an abnormality score of 9.7 and a price shift of −19.2%, reflecting the severe demand disruption in the Swiss market during lockdowns. See Supply Shocks.

3.2 Export volatility was highest for the UK and Saudi Arabia, lowest for Switzerland

The coefficient of variation reveals that Switzerland was the EU's most stable export destination (CV of 0.04), reflecting the deep integration of EU and Swiss watchmaking supply chains. By contrast, exports to the UK (CV 0.57), Saudi Arabia (CV 0.69), and Russia (CV 0.49) showed considerable volatility. On the import side, China was the most stable source (CV 0.11), while the UK (CV 1.33) and Belarus (CV 1.13) showed extreme variability. See Volatility.

3.3 Net import reliance improved but remains high

The EU's net import reliance — defined as the net trade deficit as a share of apparent consumption — declined from 80.2% in 2015 to 65.3% in 2025 (−18.5%). This improvement, while meaningful, still leaves the EU heavily dependent on external suppliers. The lowest point was in 2020 (51.5%), when the pandemic depressed imports more than domestic production.

Meanwhile, the EU's trade intensity (total trade as a share of production) rose from 115.7% to 124.4%, and export propensity (exports as a share of production) increased from 212.2% to 225.6%. These high ratios — where exports significantly exceed domestic production value — suggest that the EU functions as a major transit and re-export hub for clocks and watches, with goods flowing in (primarily from Switzerland and China) and then being redistributed to global markets.

3.4 EU production shifted toward higher value despite declining volumes

Available production data shows that the number of items produced in the EU fell from 22.0 million (2015) to 18.5 million (2025), a decline of 16.0%. However, the production value surged from €493 million to €2.38 billion (+383.4%). While this extraordinary growth in production value should be interpreted with caution — it may partly reflect changes in reporting coverage or methodology — it is broadly consistent with the broader premiumisation trend visible in the trade data: the EU is producing fewer items of higher value, and trading patterns reflect the same shift.

Conclusion

Over 2015–2025, the EU's clocks-and-watches trade underwent a structural transformation rather than simply growing or shrinking. The most prominent dynamic was the pronounced premiumisation of trade: volumes fell across most segments while unit values rose sharply, particularly for precious-metal and mid-range watches. This shift pushed the EU trade deficit to €4.6 billion in 2025, even as net import reliance declined from 80% to 65% of apparent consumption.

Geographically, the period saw a decisive reconfiguration. Switzerland emerged as an even more dominant supplier (79% of import value by 2025), while the UK's share collapsed in the wake of Brexit. The pandemic year of 2020 represented a sharp but temporary shock from which imports recovered rapidly. Export destinations remained more diversified but showed higher volatility, particularly for the UK, Saudi Arabia, and Russia.

Looking forward, the EU's high import dependence — concentrated heavily on Switzerland — presents a moderate vulnerability, though the stability of Swiss supply chains and the EU's own role as a high-value re-export hub provide a degree of resilience. The continued shift toward premium products suggests that the clocks-and-watches sector is increasingly a competition on brand, quality, and design rather than on volume or price.