Market evolution: Clock movements (CN 9103) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the evolution of EU trade in goods classified under CN heading 9103 — clocks with watch movements, excluding wrist-watches, pocket-watches, and instrument panel clocks. The scope of this heading encompasses two sub-categories: electrically operated clocks with watch movements (910310) and non-electrically operated clocks with watch movements (910390).

The period 2015–2025 has been one of profound transformation for this market. Measured by physical volume, the EU has witnessed a dramatic contraction in both its external trade flows and its domestic production. Yet, this contraction conceals a striking countermovement: the average value per unit traded has surged, in some cases by several hundred percent. The story that emerges is one of a market that has shifted from mass-market, high-volume flows to a leaner, premium-oriented segment — a transition driven by structural changes in production, the reorientation of trade partnerships, and macro-economic shocks including Brexit and the COVID-19 pandemic.

1. Volume Collapse and the Premiumization Paradox

The most striking feature of the EU's CN 9103 trade over the last decade is the simultaneous, steep decline in physical volumes and the robust rise in unit values. This points to a fundamental repositioning of the market away from mass-produced, low-cost clocks and toward higher-value, fewer-in-number products.

1.1 The contraction of import and export volumes in both tonnes and pieces

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 9103 goods fell from 721 tonnes and 2.91 million pieces to 311 tonnes and 1.29 million pieces — declines of 56.8% and 55.8% respectively. The overall trade dashboard shows that this was not a smooth decline but a punctuated one, with volumes falling particularly sharply in 2020 (the onset of COVID-19) and again in 2025.

The export side tells an even more dramatic story:

EU exports lost nearly 87% of their item count while their tonnage fell by over 70%. The unit value data (see below) reveals why value has been far more resilient than volume.

1.2 Unit values have surged, especially on the export side

The most revealing dynamics are in per-unit prices, measured both per tonne and per piece. On the import side, the average price per piece rose from EUR 3.72 to EUR 6.13 (+64.7%), while the price per tonne rose from EUR 14,966 to EUR 25,059 (+67.4%).

On the export side, however, the increases are extraordinary:

The general overview shows that the EU has not merely lost volume — it has repositioned its exports toward far more expensive items, while importing goods of modestly rising value. This suggests that the remaining EU export capacity is concentrated in specialty, design-driven, or artisanal clock products, while the mass-market segment has been offshored or abandoned.

1.3 The trade balance has improved despite volume losses

The EU's trade deficit in CN 9103 goods narrowed from EUR –5.23 million in 2015 to EUR –2.96 million in 2025, an improvement of 43.4%. Net import reliance remained essentially flat at around 54–55% throughout the period. This convergence is a direct consequence of the premiumization on the export side: while the EU imports more goods by value than it exports, the gap has closed because each exported item is now worth far more than each imported item.

2. Geographic Reorientation: Brexit, Asian Dominance, and New Frontiers

The partner composition of EU trade in CN 9103 has been reshaped by three forces: the collapse of UK–EU trade following Brexit, the consolidation of Asian suppliers (especially China), and the emergence of new export markets.

2.1 The UK–EU trade collapse is the single largest geographic disruption

No partner story is as dramatic as that of the United Kingdom. Between 2015 and 2025:

• EU imports from the UK fell from EUR 1.19 million to EUR 155,101 (–87.0%).
• EU exports to the UK fell from EUR 1.72 million to EUR 340,573 (–80.2%).

The UK was the EU's largest export market in 2015 and the second-largest import source. By 2025, it had fallen to a marginal position in both directions. The top partners overview confirms that this decline was progressive but accelerated sharply after 2019, consistent with the formalization of Brexit. The volatility data further underscores the disruption: UK import flows had a coefficient of variation of 1.07, among the highest of any partner, reflecting extreme instability.

2.2 China has consolidated its position as the dominant import source

China's imports into the EU declined from EUR 4.72 million to EUR 2.90 million (–38.6%), a significant fall but far less severe than the losses experienced by secondary suppliers:

As Hong Kong, Taiwan, India, and the UK have all seen their exports to the EU collapse by 87–93%, China's share of the remaining import market has actually grown. China's relatively low coefficient of variation (0.27) also indicates stable, recurring supply — a sign of deep structural integration into the EU's clock supply chain.

The concentration analysis confirms this: the import-side Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) rose from 3,330 to 3,814 (+14.6%), indicating that the EU's import base has become more concentrated — fewer partners, more weight on China.

2.3 Export destinations have shifted toward Switzerland and emerging markets

On the export side, the most remarkable growth has come from Switzerland, which saw EU exports rise from EUR 414,163 to EUR 1.13 million (+173.0%), making it the EU's largest single export market by 2025. Switzerland's role likely reflects its position as a hub for the global watch and clock industry, where EU-produced components or finished clocks are integrated into Swiss-branded products or re-exported.

Other notable shifts include:

The top export partners data reveals a market pivoting away from Asia (Hong Kong, Japan) and toward European neighbors (Switzerland, Norway) and select emerging economies (Brazil).

2.4 Intra-EU specialization reflects a core–periphery pattern in production

Within the EU, the specialisation analysis identifies France (RSCA 0.48), Slovakia (0.34), Poland (0.32), Czechia (0.07), and Germany (0.06) as the most specialised producers of CN 9103 goods. France alone accounts for 22.2% of EU production by value, while Germany holds 23.8%.

At the other extreme, Latvia, Slovenia, Croatia, Denmark, and Ireland show near-zero specialisation (RSCA below –0.97), confirming that clock production is geographically concentrated in a handful of Western and Central European member states.

3. A Production Sector in Structural Contraction

The EU's domestic production of CN 9103 goods has experienced a collapse in physical output that far exceeds the decline in trade volumes, suggesting a fundamental retreat from mass-market clock manufacturing.

3.1 Production of items has fallen by nearly 90%

The production volumes data shows:

The EU produced over 5 million clock items in 2015; by 2025, output had fallen to just 600,000 pieces. Yet the decline in production value was far more modest at 27.6%. This implies that the average production value per piece rose from approximately EUR 24.3 to EUR 150 — a sixfold increase, mirroring the export-side price trajectory.

This confirms that the EU has exited mass production of low-cost clocks and concentrated its remaining output in the premium or specialty segment.

3.2 The electric vs. non-electric split reveals divergent dynamics

The product segment breakdown shows that the two sub-headings have followed different trajectories:

Imports:

Exports:

On the import side, electrically operated clocks (910310) have declined far more steeply in value (–40.7%) than non-electric clocks (–13.2%). However, in volume terms, 910310 imports fell from 1.89 million to 986,386 pieces (–47.8%), while 910390 imports fell from 1.02 million to 301,218 pieces (–70.5%). The non-electric segment thus lost a greater share of its item volume while sustaining its value, indicating a sharper upward price movement. Indeed, the per-piece import price for 910390 surged from EUR 5.26 to EUR 15.43 (+193%), while 910310 prices rose more modestly from EUR 2.89 to EUR 3.28 (+14%).

On the export side, the per-piece price of 910390 clocks jumped from EUR 59.44 to EUR 409.10 (+588%), while 910310 export prices rose from EUR 10.84 to EUR 80.80 (+645%). Both segments have undergone extreme premiumization, but the non-electric segment commands significantly higher absolute unit values on the export side.

3.3 Export propensity has surged as the production base has hollowed out

The vulnerability and autonomy indicators paint a picture of a sector that, while smaller, has become more outward-facing:

Export propensity — the share of domestic production that is exported — rose from 50.4% to 82.7%, meaning that by 2025, more than four-fifths of the EU's remaining clock production was destined for external markets. This is consistent with the premiumization thesis: the EU's remaining clocks are niche, high-value products aimed at international collectors, luxury retailers, or specialist buyers, rather than domestic mass consumers.

Net import reliance remained essentially unchanged at around 54–55%, indicating that despite the dramatic changes in volumes and values, the EU's structural dependence on external supply has been stable — the market has simply recalibrated to a smaller, higher-value equilibrium.

Conclusion

The EU's market for clocks with watch movements (CN 9103) has undergone a decade of dramatic transformation. The period 2015–2025 was defined by three converging dynamics: a severe contraction in physical trade volumes and domestic production, a radical reorientation of trade geography — most notably the collapse of UK–EU exchanges following Brexit and the consolidation of China as the dominant import source — and an extraordinary surge in unit values pointing to a decisive shift toward premium and specialty products.

The EU has not exited the clock market; it has repositioned within it. The remaining production base, concentrated in France, Germany, Poland, Slovakia, and Czechia, now serves an increasingly export-oriented, high-value niche. The mass-market segment has been ceded to Asian producers, primarily China. Meanwhile, Switzerland has emerged as the EU's largest and fastest-growing export partner, reflecting the integration of EU-made clocks into the broader Swiss watchmaking ecosystem.

The structural stability of net import reliance at around 55% belies the scale of the underlying transformation: the same trade balance is now maintained with roughly half the tonnage, a fraction of the item count, and dramatically higher per-unit prices. This is a market that has traded breadth for depth — fewer products, fewer partners, higher stakes.