Market evolution: Precious metal watches (CN 9101) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report examines the EU's external trade in CN 9101 — wrist-watches, pocket-watches and other watches with cases of precious metal or metal clad with precious metal (excluding steel-backed cases) — over the period 2015–2025. The product scope covers six subcategories spanning electrically-operated quartz pieces, automatic and hand-winding mechanical watches, and pocket-watches. Over the eleven-year window, the EU's precious-metal watch trade underwent three major transformations: a pronounced premiumisation in which physical volumes collapsed while values proved resilient or grew; a geographic reorientation driven primarily by Brexit and the consolidation of Switzerland's role; and a deepening structural dependence on imports that widened the EU's trade deficit to €836 million by 2025.

From Volume to Value: The Premiumisation of EU Precious-Metal Watch Trade

The most striking feature of EU precious-metal watch trade over 2015–2025 is the widening divergence between physical volumes and monetary values, pointing to a decisive shift toward higher-value products.

Physical import volumes collapsed by weight even as trade values grew

Between 2015 and 2025, EU imports of CN 9101 fell from 824.9 tonnes to just 95.2 tonnes — a decline of 88.5% by net mass. Yet import value rose from €2.234 billion to €2.381 billion (+6.6%). On the export side, physical volumes dropped from 123.3 tonnes to 82.6 tonnes (−33.0%), while export value fell only modestly from €1.622 billion to €1.545 billion (−4.8%). The near-stability of import piece counts — 1.618 million items in 2015 versus 1.597 million in 2025 (−1.3%) — confirms that the tonnage collapse reflects a change in the type of product entering the EU, not a reduction in the number of watches.

The massive surge in import price per tonne (+822.3%) reflects a compositional shift away from heavier, lower-value-per-gram products toward lighter, premium mechanical pieces.

Unit prices rose substantially, especially on the import side

At the per-piece level, the premiumisation story is visible but more moderate. The average EU import price per watch rose from €1,381 to €1,491 (+8.0%), while the average export price increased from €2,056 to €2,289 (+11.4%). However, these averages mask much larger swings within subcategories. The supplementary unit price of imported hand-winding watches (CN 910129) surged from €2,533 to €11,072 per piece (+337%), while imported automatic-winding watches (CN 910121) rose from €8,148 to €12,770 per piece (+57%). These dramatic increases point to a genuine move upmarket within each product segment, not merely a mix effect.

The product mix shifted toward mechanical luxury: automatic-winding watches now dominate

The subcategory data reveals a clear structural rebalancing. The import value of electrically-operated watches with opto-electronic displays (CN 910119) collapsed from €110.7 million to €5.6 million (−94.9%), with physical volumes plummeting from 640.4 tonnes to 14.4 tonnes. By contrast, automatic-winding watches (CN 910121) grew from €1.198 billion to €1.560 billion (+30.2%) and now account for 65.5% of all CN 9101 imports by value. Hand-winding watches (CN 910129) also expanded strongly, from €389.3 million to €493.2 million (+26.7%). On the export side, the same pattern holds: electric opto-electronic display exports fell 80.1% (from €122.8M to €24.4M), while automatic-winding exports grew to €775.3 million (from €706.5M, +9.7%) and hand-winding exports surged to €369.0 million (from €268.9M, +37.2%).

The near-total disappearance of CN 910119 from the import figures (down 94.9% in value and 97.8% in tonnage) is the single largest driver of the physical volume collapse. This may reflect product reclassification as well as genuine demand shifts away from opto-electronic display watches in the precious-metal segment.

Shifting Geographies: Brexit Fallout and the Swiss Anchor

The geographic composition of EU precious-metal watch trade underwent significant change between 2015 and 2025, with the United Kingdom's role diminishing sharply and the United Arab Emirates emerging as a fast-growing export destination, all against the backdrop of Switzerland's overwhelming and consolidating dominance.

Switzerland's near-monopoly as the EU's import source intensified

Switzerland has always been the dominant supplier of precious-metal watches to the EU, but its share actually increased over the period. In 2015, Swiss-origin imports were valued at €2.137 billion, representing 95.7% of total CN 9101 imports. By 2025, this had risen to €2.323 billion — 97.6% of all imports. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for imports by value stood at 9,554 in 2025 (up from 9,192 in 2015), confirming an already-high concentration that has edged higher. On the export side, Switzerland and Hong Kong together absorbed 67.1% of EU exports by value in 2025 (€578.5M and €458.5M respectively), a combined share essentially unchanged from 2015.

Brexit triggered a collapse in EU–UK precious-metal watch trade

The United Kingdom was the EU's second-largest export destination for precious-metal watches in 2015, absorbing €207.4 million (12.8% of total exports). By 2025, this had fallen to just €47.7 million (3.1%) — a decline of 77.0%. The volatility of UK-bound exports was also among the highest of any partner, with a coefficient of variation of 0.454. Imports from the UK into the EU fell even more sharply, from €70.6 million to €9.1 million (−87.1%). This bilateral collapse, which accelerated around 2020–2021, is consistent with the post-Brexit re-establishment of customs formalities, VAT changes, and rules-of-origin requirements that disrupted previously frictionless trade flows. The volatility data confirms the UK as one of the most volatile trade partners, with a coefficient of variation of 1.20 on the import side — the highest among the top seven import partners.

The UAE emerged as the fastest-growing EU export market

Partially compensating for the loss of UK-bound trade, EU exports to the United Arab Emirates surged from €53.1 million in 2015 to €142.8 million in 2025 (+168.9%), raising the UAE's share of EU exports from 3.3% to 9.2%. Japan, by contrast, saw its import demand for EU precious-metal watches fall from €67.7 million to €25.7 million (−62.0%). Among smaller but rapidly growing markets, Ethiopia appears as a highly volatile outlier — with EU exports to Ethiopia swinging from near zero to €819,144 in a single year and exhibiting a coefficient of variation of 2.83, suggesting occasional, possibly re-export-driven shipments rather than a stable market.

Deepening Import Dependence and the Erosion of EU Self-Sufficiency

Despite being home to several of the world's leading luxury watchmakers, the EU's structural dependence on imported precious-metal watches intensified markedly over 2015–2025, with domestic production volumes declining and the trade deficit widening.

Net import reliance climbed from 58% to over 82%

The EU's net import reliance for CN 9101 rose from 58.0% in 2015 to 82.3% in 2025 — a 41.9% increase. The trade deficit widened from −€611.6 million to −€836.2 million (−36.7%). The trade intensity index remained elevated (142.9% in 2015, 148.9% in 2025), confirming that the EU's precious-metal watch trade is disproportionately large relative to its overall goods trade. Meanwhile, the export propensity index more than doubled from 353.5% to 735.6%, indicating that while the EU exports a large share of its precious-metal watch production, the growth in exports has not kept pace with the growth in imports.

EU production volumes fell while the trade deficit widened

EU domestic production of precious-metal watches declined from 112,150 pieces in 2015 to 74,796 pieces in 2025 (−33.3%). Over the same period, however, production value rose from €122.7 million to €188.5 million (+53.6%), implying that the average production value per watch increased from approximately €1,094 to €2,520 — a premiumisation of the EU's own manufacturing output that mirrors the trade-side trends. The production quantity data also shows significant volatility, with a minimum of 25,525 pieces in one year (likely 2020, the COVID-19 year) and a maximum of 790,000 pieces, suggesting that certain years saw substantial production spikes, possibly related to inventory cycles or the ramp-up of specific product lines.

France and Germany diverge as the EU's import and export hubs, respectively

Among EU member states, France remained the largest importer throughout the period (€920.2M in 2015, €914.5M in 2025), reflecting its role as the principal entry point for Swiss luxury watches. France also has the highest revealed comparative advantage among large EU economies (RSCA of 0.718 in 2025), accounting for 47.7% of EU production value in CN 9101. However, France's exports of precious-metal watches fell from €480.8 million to €303.6 million (−36.8%). Germany moved in the opposite direction: its exports grew from €376.3 million to €465.9 million (+23.8%), making it the EU's largest exporter of precious-metal watches by 2025 — overtaking both France and Italy. Italy, the other traditional watchmaking nation, saw exports decline from €415.3 million to €326.8 million (−21.3%) and imports fall from €399.1 million to €351.7 million (−11.9%). The Netherlands emerged as a notable growth hub, with imports up 50.8% (to €133.6M) and exports up 187.5% (to €87.9M), likely reflecting its role as a logistics and distribution node.

Conclusion

The EU's trade in precious-metal watches over 2015–2025 has been defined by a paradox: a market that appears stable in headline value terms but has undergone profound structural change underneath. Physical import volumes collapsed by 88.5% in tonnage, driven largely by the near-disappearance of opto-electronic display watches (CN 910119), while automatic-winding mechanical watches consolidated their position as the dominant product segment, now accounting for nearly two-thirds of import value. Unit prices rose sharply — by 822% per tonne on the import side — reflecting both product-mix shifts and genuine premiumisation within categories.

Geographically, the EU's dependence on Switzerland as its near-sole supplier intensified (from 95.7% to 97.6% of import value), while Brexit disrupted what had been the second-largest bilateral trade relationship, with EU–UK flows declining by 77–87%. The UAE partially filled the gap as a growth market for EU exports.

Most significantly, the EU's net import reliance rose from 58% to 82%, and the trade deficit widened to €836 million. Domestic production volumes fell by a third, even as production values rose — a premiumisation that has not been sufficient to offset the growing import bill. With import concentration already very high (HHI of 9,554) and the supply structure anchored almost entirely in Switzerland, the EU precious-metal watch market faces a structural vulnerability that policymakers may wish to monitor, even as the sector continues to move up the value chain.