Market evolution: Watch movements and parts (CN 9110) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the European Union's external trade in watch and clock movements (customs code 9110) from 2015 to 2025. The product category covers complete, unassembled, or partly assembled movements, as well as incomplete or rough movements. Over the decade, the EU's trade in this sector has undergone a significant structural transformation. While the total value of exports has risen, production within the EU has declined substantially. This has led to a sharply increased trade deficit and a greater reliance on imports, which have become more concentrated on fewer, often more expensive, sources. The analysis below examines the key dynamics driving these changes, focusing on the trade balance, market concentration, and underlying volatility.

1. A Widening Structural Deficit Fueled by Production Decline and Price Inflation

The EU's trade in watch movements has shifted from a near balance to a significant structural deficit over the period, driven by a combination of falling domestic production and rising unit values of imports.

The trade balance has deteriorated despite rising export values

The EU's overall trade balance for CN 9110 moved from a small deficit of -€309k in 2015 to a surplus of €1.69 million by 2025. However, this top-line improvement masks a more nuanced reality. While export value grew by 50.5% to €9.12 million, import value also grew by 16.6% to €7.43 million. Crucially, this occurred against a backdrop of collapsing physical trade volumes, indicating a fundamental market shift. For detailed data, see the General Overview.

Domestic production has collapsed, forcing greater import reliance

A key factor behind the trade deficit is the severe contraction of EU production. The number of movement items produced in the EU fell from 800,000 units at its peak to 426,112 units by 2025—a 47.5% decline in value. This erosion of the production base has directly translated into increased import dependency. The EU's net import reliance as a percentage of apparent consumption surged from 47.3% in 2015 to a record 83.9% in 2025.

Import and export prices have diverged sharply

The unit prices for both imports and exports have risen dramatically, but more so for imports. The average price of imported movements (in EUR per tonne) increased by 83.7%, while the price of exports rose by 71.7%. This price inflation suggests the EU is increasingly importing higher-value or more specialized movements while exporting different segments, or that global supply dynamics have driven up costs more for inputs than for EU outputs.

2. Heightened Market Concentration and Strategic Realignment of Partners

Trade flows have become significantly more concentrated, with the EU relying on a shrinking number of key partners for both its imports and exports.

Import sources have consolidated, with Switzerland emerging as the dominant supplier

The concentration of import sources, measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) on value, nearly doubled from 2,471 in 2015 to 5,656 in 2025, indicating a much less diversified import market. Switzerland's role has become paramount; its share of EU imports in value surged from €2.51 billion to €5.47 billion (+117.8%). Conversely, imports from traditional Asian sources like China (-42.6%), Hong Kong (-68.4%), and Taiwan (-96.5%) have declined sharply. Tunisia has emerged as a notable, though volatile, source. For more, see the analysis of top partners.

Export markets have also reoriented, with Switzerland and the UK gaining prominence

Export concentration also increased, though less dramatically (HHI from 2,139 to 2,712). The United States remains the top destination by value, but its share fell by -33.9%. The most striking growth was in exports to Switzerland, which jumped by 171.8% to become the second-largest market. Exports to the United Kingdom also grew significantly (+328.5%). This suggests a realignment towards high-value European and Anglo-American markets.

Internal EU specialization has shifted, with Italy becoming a major export hub

Within the EU, the centers of activity have moved. Italy's export value for watch movements skyrocketed by 536.5% from 2015 to 2025, making it the largest EU exporter, surpassing Germany. Italy also exhibits a very high revealed comparative advantage (RCA) in this product. Meanwhile, traditional producers like France saw their export value plummet by -85.4%. This points to a regional specialization within the EU, with Italy consolidating its role as a key production and export node. The most specialized reporters data confirms Italy's dominant position.

3. Periods of High Volatility and Significant Price Shocks

The market for watch movements is characterized by high volatility in certain trade relationships and has been subject to notable price shocks, particularly following the disruptions of 2020.

Supply relationships show varying degrees of stability

The coefficient of variation (CV) for trade values reveals stark differences in partner stability. For EU imports, trade with Tunisia (CV 1.52) and Taiwan (CV 1.30) has been highly volatile, while flows from China (CV 0.16) and Japan (CV 0.22) have been relatively stable. On the export side, relationships with Mexico (CV 1.72) and Saudi Arabia (CV 1.98) have been erratic, whereas exports to the United States (CV 0.58) have been steadier. This volatility is explored in the volatility bars.

The market experienced severe price shocks in the early 2020s

The data detects several significant price shocks. The most extreme was a 373% abnormality in export prices to the United Kingdom in 2021, followed by a 133% abnormality in export prices to the United States in 2023. These shocks, detected in the top shock events, likely reflect post-pandemic supply chain disruptions, inventory corrections, or shifts in product mix towards higher-value items. They underscore the market's sensitivity to external shocks and pricing dynamics.

Segment data reveals divergent trajectories

A look at the product segments provides clarity. For imports, the value of complete watch movements (911011) grew substantially, while clock movements (911090) fell in value. For exports, the value of incomplete watch movements (911012) exploded from €86k in 2015 to €1.55 million in 2025, while rough clock movements (911019) also saw significant growth. This indicates the EU is increasingly exporting components and assemblies while importing more complete, higher-unit-value movements. Segment details can be found in the product compare section.

Conclusion

Over the 2015–2025 period, the EU's market for watch and clock movements (CN 9110) has transformed into one characterized by high import dependency, concentrated supply chains, and significant price volatility. The erosion of domestic production has been the primary driver, creating a structural need for imports that has been filled predominantly by Switzerland, raising concentration risks. Simultaneously, the EU has evolved into an exporter of different product segments, particularly components, with Italy emerging as a central player. The market has proven susceptible to major price shocks, reflecting global supply chain vulnerabilities. Moving forward, the sector's health will depend on the ability to stabilize production bases within the EU, manage dependency on key suppliers, and navigate ongoing price and volatility pressures in global markets.