Market evolution: Complete clock movements (CN 9109) — 2015–2025

Introduction

This report analyzes the EU's external trade in complete and assembled clock movements (excluding watch movements), classified under Customs code 9109, over the 2015–2025 period. The data reveals a market in significant structural transition, characterized by a sharp contraction in the EU's domestic production capacity and a corresponding, though not proportional, shift in its trade position. The EU has moved from being a modest net exporter to a pronounced net importer, with its trade flows becoming more concentrated and volatile. This report examines these dynamics in three parts: the fundamental reorientation of the EU's trade balance, the evolving geography of its key partners, and the resulting implications for market stability and import dependency.

A Reversal of Fortunes: The EU Shifts from Net Exporter to Net Importer

The most pronounced trend in the EU clock movements market over the last decade is its dramatic reversal from a positive to a negative trade balance. This structural shift is underpinned by a severe decline in EU-based production and exports, which has not been fully offset by changes in import volumes.

The Collapse of Domestic Production and Export Value

EU production of clock movements contracted sharply over the period. The production quantity fell by 29.7%, from 606,485 items in 2015 to 426,112 items in 2025. More dramatically, the production value halved, dropping by 47.5% from €19.2 million to €10.1 million. This collapse in local manufacturing directly impacted exports. Total EU export value declined by 50.6%, from €12.3 million to €6.1 million, with the volume (in tonnes) also falling by 38.3%.

The Emergence of a Persistent Trade Deficit

While both exports and imports declined in value, the much steeper fall in exports converted the EU's initial 2015 trade surplus of €6.8 million into a modest surplus of just €1.6 million by 2025. Concurrently, the EU's net import reliance surged from 47.3% to 83.9%, indicating that domestic consumption is increasingly satisfied by foreign suppliers. This shift is further highlighted by the export propensity, which measures exports relative to production, rising to 355.9% in 2025. This high figure, paradoxically alongside falling exports, underscores how the surviving export-oriented niche is now a much larger share of a shrunken production base.

Geographic Realignment: A More Concentrated and Volatile Partner Landscape

The decline in overall trade volume has been accompanied by a significant reshuffling among the EU's main trading partners, leading to increased geographic concentration and specific instances of high volatility.

Diverging Paths Among Traditional Partners

The EU's import relationships have evolved differently with its key suppliers. China remains the largest single supplier, though its share in value terms fell by 20.8%. A major shift occurred with South Korea, where imports exploded by 2,121.9%, rising from €37,293 in 2015 to €828,621 in 2025, making it the second-largest supplier. Conversely, imports from Hong Kong and Türkiye virtually collapsed, falling by over 92% each. On the export side, the United States remained the EU's most stable and significant partner, with exports falling only marginally (-2.0%). In contrast, exports to China plummeted by 71.1%.

Increased Export Concentration and Specific Supply Shocks

The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) for exports rose by 21.6%, indicating that export sales have become more concentrated among fewer destination countries. This concentration, combined with generally lower trade volumes, has increased exposure to partner-specific volatility. The volatility analysis highlights this: exports to India and Japan exhibited very high coefficients of variation (1.49 and 1.60, respectively). Notably, a specific supply shock was detected in exports to Norway in 2020, where the average price spiked by 248.8%, representing an abnormality of 3.4 standard deviations.

The Divergence of Product Segments and Rising Import Dependency

The two sub-products under CN 9109—electrically operated movements (910910) and non-electrically operated movements (910990)—have followed starkly different trade trajectories, both contributing to the EU's heightened vulnerability to import fluctuations.

Contrasting Fortunes for Electric vs. Non-Electric Movements

The data reveals a clear divergence. For imports, the electrically operated segment (910910) maintained relatively stable volumes and values, while the non-electric segment (910990) saw its import volume in tonnes collapse by 86% (from 233t to 33t), though its value fell less sharply (-39.7%). For exports, the pattern inverted. The non-electric segment remained the primary export by value, though it also declined significantly. The electric segment, however, saw its export value fall even more dramatically, from €6.8 million in 2015 to just €1.5 million in 2025 (-78.4%).

Specialisation and Vulnerability in a Shrinking Market

Despite the overall decline, production specialisation within the EU persists. The 2025 specialisation index shows Portugal, the Netherlands, and Germany as the most specialised producers (with Revealed Symmetric Comparative Advantage scores of 0.55, 0.33, and 0.13 respectively). However, this specialisation occurs within a context of rising import dependency. The massive swing in net import reliance to 83.9% by 2025 signifies that the EU's consumption of clock movements is now overwhelmingly sourced from outside the bloc, a fundamental change from a decade prior.

Conclusion

The EU market for complete clock movements (CN 9109) has undergone a profound transformation between 2015 and 2025. The central narrative is the erosion of the EU's domestic industrial capacity, manifested in drastically reduced production and export volumes. This has forcibly repositioned the bloc as a net importer reliant on foreign sources for over 80% of its needs. This structural shift has been accompanied by a strategic realignment of trading partners, with a notable surge in imports from South Korea and a decline from several traditional suppliers, increasing overall trade concentration. While niche production specialisation endures in certain member states, the sector's vulnerability has clearly increased, marked by greater import dependency, partner-specific volatility, and divergent performance between product sub-segments. The future trajectory of this market will be shaped by how the EU navigates this new reality of diminished production leverage and heightened import reliance.